I read the Citrini paper and summarised the 10 key points you need to know so you don't have to: 1. It's a "what if" scenario from called the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. 2. It's not saying it WILL happen, just a smart thought experiment on what could go wrong if AI gets way too good too fast. 3. The basic idea: Late 2025 AI agents start doing most white-collar work - coding full apps, customer service, analysis, bookings, you name it. Companies go nuts replacing people to save money. 4. At first it looks awesome - profits jump, stocks rip higher into late 2026. 5. Then the nasty loop hits - all those laid-off office workers (who do most of the spending on houses, vacations, cars, restaurants) stop buying stuff. 6. Sales drop everywhere. So companies lean even harder on AI to cut more costs then Rinse and repeat. 7. They call it "Ghost GDP" - machines make more but regular people have no cash to buy it. 8. By mid-2028 in this story, Unemployment hits 10.2% S&P 500 down 38% from the highs! 9. House prices tank in tech cities (SF -11%, Seattle -9%, Austin -8%) 10. SaaS companies laying off 15%, private credit defaults popping, payments slow down It's the ultimate AI paradox - the better AI works, the more it can wreck the economy that relies on people earning and spending. This aligns with my thesis on $TLT - I went long with 60% of my portfolio.

Why you should be so bullish on $TLT in 2026

Why AI Won't Show Up in GDP - Andrej Karpathy https://t.co/fPNlJAFQTJ

I measure my wealth against the S&P 500, not USD or CPI. Over the past 12 months, my portfolio grew +93.5%. If your net worth went up 10% in 2025 while the S&P gained 16%, you actually fell behind. Indexes like $VTI , $SPY , $VOO are just the baseline. https://t.co/PVehj8oqDN

First time in a long time I've been feeling physically sick to my stomach reading some of the Epstein files. It is impossible to escape them - and maybe we shouldn't try. They need to all be exposed and brought to justice! We need more good in the world! Is there hope for humanity? I believe there is vastly more good out there than evil. Please keep doing good deeds in your day to day lives. Spread more peace and joy - we need it right now!

BREAKING: Ethereum Founder Vitalik Butterin sells $8,200,000 worth of $ETH! Cue Tom Lee's appearance on @CNBC on Monday predicting $ETH to 5,000 by March! https://t.co/rHyHDnTY81

RETAIL IS GETTING MASSACRED - AGAIN! $OKLO $IONQ $RGTI $FIG $IREN $JOBY down 50-80% from the 2025 hype peaks! Jobs weakening. Consumer sentiment crushed. Credit delinquencies exploding. Housing market stalled and Now the Freight Index just crashed to 2009 GFC levels. Meanwhile my $TLT bonds are +3.2% YTD plus dividends BEATING the $SPY which is flat. I’ve been screaming for months: 2026 = YEAR OF THE BOND I’m all-in. Are you still bag-holding these memes hoping for a recovery or finally waking up? SMART MONEY IS EXITING WHILE RETAIL CONTINUES TO BUY - DON'T BE THEIR EXIT LIQUIDITY! Common Sense Investing Pays!

7 Beginner Investing Mistakes To Avoid In The Stock Market! 66% of ETF investors started just in the past five years according to Charles Schwab. With posts everywhere on X on WSB about going "ALL IN" on single stocks like $IREN, $FIG, $JOBY, and $OKLO where some made money before the hype but most broke even or lost, beginners should avoid the frenzy and focus on basics. I lost on Ethereum early on in my 20's and learnt from that lesson - avoid these 7 mistakes and you will reach financial freedom! 1. Not Doing Your Own Research - Don't buy based on tips. Look into the companys financials, using sites like Reuters, the companies own financial SEC submissions and even YouTube channels. - Check leadership, growth, valuation, cash, debt, insider sales etc. the basics! - Form your own view. 2. Wrong Strategy - Trading is like short-term gambling, with 90% losing. - Investing is about long-term growth. - Avoid quick profits and higher taxes, let compounding work! 3. High Commissions - Zero-fee brokers like Robinhood or IBKR are available-compare options. - I paid too much early, there is no reason to in 2025 4. Unrealistic Expectations - No quick riches, it takes time. - It took me 10 years to go from in debt at 24 to officially becoming a millionaire last year at 34. 5. Emotional Attachment - I got attached to a bank stock too long due to sentiment and lost 70% - always have an exit plan. - If your original thesis for investing changes get out. 6. Following Experts Blindly - Pundits on X or otherwise often guess or worse are paid to hype stocks. (see video below) - Be skeptical! 7. No Diversification - Putting everything in one stock is stupid, and worryingly its becoming more and more common - Use index funds like $VTSAX or $VTI - Buffett-approved, with 7-12% average returns and low fees. Get started - financial freedom is waiting for you!

Part of my portfolio is heavily exposed to Canadian long-term bonds via $ZFL.TO - essentially the Canadian version of $TLT. Here’s the International Monetary Fund’s projection for Canada: - Real GDP: -4.9% - Unemployment: 9.6% (YES YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY) - Stocks: -33% - House prices: -25% - Wages: -0.5% - Oil: -33% If this scenario plays out - and I believe Canada’s economy cracks faster than the U.S. - long-duration bonds will rip as growth collapses and central bank policy eventually moves to support. That’s why I’m positioned in $ZFL.TO.

Fundamentals matter much more than technicals. But when both point the same way, I sit up and pay attention. That’s how Druckenmiller invested - build the thesis on fundamentals, then use charts to support timing. $TLT is setting up. Price is pushing against the top of a multi-year downtrend, and we’re seeing higher lows underneath. It's in the process of breaking out: - Target 1: $99 a +10.5% increase - Target 2: $110 a +23% increase I think eventually get to $120+ over the next 12 moths. (a +35% increase) Yields will come down with interest rate cuts - money will continue rotating defensive. Sometimes you just need to sit, keep accumulating, stay patient… and collect the monthly dividend. Pic by @paratereo

THE ECOMONY IS STARTING TO CRASH! Breaking: - Cass Freight Index Shipments Plunge -7.1% YoY in January to 0.886 - Lowest Since April 2009 when there was a Deepening Recession! The Cass Freight Index is a monthly measure of North American freight shipment volumes and expenditures, serving as a key indicator of economic health by tracking how much stuff is being shipped around. - Total shipments down -20.9% over this brutal run, - Literally mirrors the 2008 Financial Crisis meltdown when we saw a similar decline (see image below) Forecast is even worse - seasonal trends point to a further -11.0% YoY dive in February. Look i've always been an optimist - and nobody wants a recession (me included) but I see the writing on the wall and I am getting prepared. We are heading for a recession - and like I've said before 2026 will be the year for Long Term US Bonds $TLT

I'm not normally one for these conspiracy theories. But this blew my mind a little - can anyone verify? Please do not tell me Ghislaine Maxwell is out here with her brother living her best life. We are truly in the last days. Jesus is returning and that is a FACT. Our entire lives are one big psyop atp.

MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE IN THE STOCK MARKET! Retail investors will always be misled by hedge-fund billionaires. $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN , $LAES , $BTC , $BTQ , $JOBY , $OPEN , $META , $NVDA , $GOOG This is why you should never rely on CNBC hedge-fund billionaires when they give highly public interviews to an audience of millions. At the very height of the stock market bubble for hype industries like Quantum / Nuclear / AI etc , Paul Tudor Jones went on Squawk Box claiming it “feels like 1999” and that the rally would continue through year-end. His Key Insights: - "The biggest winners are Gold and Bitcoin"... "there is a Morgan Stanley basket, that is a Retail flow basket that has all the meme stocks in it, it's up 67% or 68%" - "I'd want to have positions in all of that, FOR SURE" - referring to the meme-stock basket containing bubble names like $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN, etc. - "What will be the winners, we have this race which is certainly to the end of the year" - "I'd want to have combination of Gold, Crypto, the Nasdaq, and whatever the fastest horse at this point in time probably has a good chance of having that on December 31" Summary: 1. He was telling retail investors to keep holding and buying the meme-stock craze, gold, and crypto. 2. Since that interview three weeks ago: - $BTC has dropped 50% - Popular retail-style meme stocks have dropped 50 to 70%+ (e.g., $IONQ, $RGTI, $BTW, $OKLO) 3. He effectively pumped these names to provide exit liquidity for institutions and Wall Street - the same pattern every time. 4. Never rely on interviews from hedge-fund CEOs or billionaires proclaiming broad market predictions like this. 5. They have their own motives. They are not looking out for your portfolio. 6. Do your own due diligence - see through the hype narrative being sold to you.

RT @commonsenseplay: 2026 is going to be juicy for $TLT! https://t.co/BNsZBUk2eN

Jim Simons, one of my personal heroes. For those who don't know, Jim started as a mathematician who founded Renaissance Technologies, using data, math, and algorithms instead of predictions or narratives. His flagship Medallion Fund averaged roughly 66% gross (39% net) annual returns for DECADES! Still to this day one of the greatest records in investing history. Simons proved that systematic, emotion-free investing beats gut instinct, turning math into billions. Jim Simons’ net worth is estimated at $35 billion, putting him among the richest hedge fund founders ever and nearly all of it came from Renaissance Technologies’ Medallion Fund, which was so successful it was eventually closed to outside investors. In this awesome clip he provides an overview of some of the approach his firm including taking advantage of "anomalies in the market" that they took advantage of through quantitative algorithmic strategies. Some examples include "Betting on the trend" for example in the commodities space. He highlights: - "Prediction is not the only part", you've got to "now what your costs are, also are you going to move the market" - "Have to understand how to minimize the volatility of the whole assembly of the positions you have" - "this takes fairly sophisticated mathematics" - "we have over a 100 phd working for them" - "my whole thing is you get smart people together" Common Sense Tips: 1. Risk management is everything - Position sizing, diversification, and controlling volatility matter more than being right. Most blow-ups come from bad risk, not bad ideas. 2. Remove emotion from decisions Fear and greed destroy returns. The more rules-based and boring your approach, the better your long-term results. 3. Costs quietly kill your performance. - Fees, spreads, taxes, and overtrading matter far more than most retail investors realize, the same was even more important for Jim's firm. 4. You don’t need genius, you need discipline. - Retail can’t run quant models, but they can avoid hype, stick to a plan, and manage risk!

$SRPT: Breaking As a reminder Roche holds ex-U.S. rights for Sarepta's core Elevidys drug. This is big for $SRPT (announced today): - Japan launch of Elevidys (via Roche's Chugai) triggers milestones/royalties (~¥305M/patient pricing) and meaningful expands market, validates the gene therapy and mitigates risks in U.S. competition. Would not be surprised if Roche bought out Sarepta at this valuation. This would be an easy 3 to 5x if buyout went through (i.e. 6B to 10B range). https://t.co/IoyfDSHWYM

2026 is going to be juicy for $TLT! https://t.co/BNsZBUk2eN

$SRPT continues its climb higher. My largest single stock. Earnings Feb 25 - pay attention. https://t.co/z6AqTI85Vz

Your favorite X account might be getting paid to hype the stock they want you to buy. Analysts on live TV can’t even explain their own stock… let alone the nonsense “GURU X accounts” are telling you to buy. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $IREN $OKLO $INFQ $JOBY $NBIS Do your homework. Know what you’re buying!

MUST READ FOR ANYONE INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET. If you're going to invest in any world country's Treasuries, it's the US - $TLT. Not China, not Germany, not India- but the USA. We're the leader in AI, which has and will continue to impact every industry. The leader in AI runs the world - and will always be the safe haven when other industries collapse due to AI's impact. Just look at the sell-off in SaaS over the last couple of weeks and even cybersecurity companies today on the Anthropic Claude release. This is an unprecedented rate of change. Software developers didn't predict they'd be the first to go when developing these LLMs! Who knows what sector is next? $TLT is your safety net during uncertainty, while paying a monthly yield. Common Sense Investing