BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg discussed Retail being pushed to invest in Private Credit, Stock Market Cycles and "Cockroaches in the Coal Mine". "It's only during tough economic times that we learn who lent money stupidly!" If you can spare 5 mins today watch this video! Like and follow if you enjoy this content - appreciate it!

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHATS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET! Banks Are Now Limiting Your…

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHATS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET! Banks Are Now Limiting Your…

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHATS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET! Banks Are Now Limiting Your…

美联储降低美国银行资本要求，这是进一步释放流动性的意思。 我觉得目前增加市场流动性是有帮助的。

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHATS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET! Banks Are Now Limiting Your…

BREAKING: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WHATS GOING ON IN THE PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET! Banks Are Now Limiting Your Withdrawals (Morgan Stanley JUST Did It TODAY) What is Private credit? Simple - These giant funds (think BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Blue Owl, Blackstone) act like shadow banks. They lend YOUR money directly to mid-sized companies for buyouts, growth, or deals - NOT stocks or public bonds. Loans are private, locked up 5-7 years, floating-rate (yields are usually high 8-12%+ which is why people invest in the first place). You get semi-liquid access with quarterly cash-outs... but capped at around 5%. The Problem? Those loans are ILLIQUID. They can't sell them fast without losses. When too many investors panic and want out like what is happening right now - these big Funds "gate" i.e. limit or block withdrawals to avoid fire sales! TODAY'S NEWS: 1. Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund. - Investors demanded ~11% of shares back - The Fund paid ONLY $169M (just 45.8% of requests), capping at 5% - The reason they gave on why they couldnt return everything to investors: "To avoid selling assets in market stress.". Add that to the other Big funds also recently doing the same: 2. BlackRock (Mar 6): $26B HPS fund. $1.2B requested (9.3%). Paid just $620M (5% cap) - First time ever they've limited withdrawals! 3. Blue Owl (Feb 2026): Permanently ENDED quarterly redemptions in big retail fund. Sold $1.4B loans -now you get money ONLY when THEY decide (loan repayments/sales). 4. Others: Blackstone's $82B fund stretched to 7% and injected $400M own cash. Cliffwater capped after 14% requests. It keeps getting WORSE FAST as panic starts to spread and more and more investors request to take their capital out! Knock-on effects & REAL risks that could happen next: - Companies relying on this $2 TRILLION market can't borrow easily which will lead to slower growth, fewer jobs/M&A, credit crunch. - Your money? Stuck! Valuations drop if forced sales happen - you could lose most of your investment or not get access to it for years! - Contagion to pensions/retail investors which in turn leads to more forced selling! This isn't "safe high yield" anymore. $2T industry under scrutiny - retail panic spreading. If you're in these funds... check your statements. If I was in them I would get out before it gets much worse!

先把自己救起来吧，跌得跟臭狗屎一样 $GS $JPM 私募信贷和个人信用正在发育成新的黑天鹅叙事，还是要小心。不过目前依然是叙事而不是真正的危机。

$JPM 宣布将削减私募贷款，难道真的出问题了🤔 私募贷款出现广泛的、超过预期的赎回，这可能和美国近期爆发的大规模个人养老金账户提前提取有关系。

中国正在银行政府机关全面禁止OpenClaw，不能成为摩萨德和CIA的入口哦。

Heard an interesting take: UK insurers—who dominate this market today—are worried about losing it to US insurers. If that shift happens, the US wouldn’t only just control the Strait of Hormuz militarily and politically, but financially as well. But Middle East as well!

目前2026年美国进入经济危机的概率上升到了27% 危机爆发点主要集中在私募资本流动性，个人信贷，AI融资泡沫以及AI裁员潮。 但是目前工业生产以及服务依然处于景气的阶段。

银行股出现了彻底而巨大的崩盘 $GS $JPM $UVXY 直接上天 信贷危机已经爆发了…

The stock market’s biggest lie: BLACK SWANS ARE BASICALLY WHITE SWANS! Here’s how often these "black swan" events actually occur" and the impact on the stock market! Market impact of “black swan” events: 1. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis - S&P 500: -19% peak-to-trough - Global sell off 2. 1998 LTCM collapse - S&P 500: -19% in 6 weeks - Fed emergency bailout 3. 2000 Dot-com bust - Nasdaq: -78% - S&P 500: -49% - Took 7 years to recover 4. 2008 Global Financial Crisis - S&P 500: -57% - Worst drawdown since the 1930s 5. 2010 Flash Crash - Dow: -9% in minutes - Liquidity vanished instantly 6. 2011 Eurozone crisis - S&P 500: -21% - U.S. credit rating downgraded 7. 2015 China devaluation shock - S&P 500: -12% in days - Volatility spike globally 8. 2018 Volmageddon - S&P 500: -20% in ~3 months - Short-vol trades wiped out 9. 2020 COVID crash - S&P 500: -34% in 23 trading days - Fastest crash in history 10. 2022 rate-hike shock - S&P 500: -25% - Nasdaq: -35% - Bonds AND stocks down together 11. 2023 regional bank failures - Financials: -20–40% - Deposits and confidence evaporated 12. 2026 - IRAN WAR - TBC.... These aren't “once in a lifetime.” events more like once every few years. If your portfolio can’t survive drawdowns, returns don’t matter. Never go all in on one stock! Common Sense Investing!

完全由资本巨头拉动的空转GDP

The last time @jimcramer made a big call about Banks! https://t.co/qlQSGZAl88

Told you guys before, Citrini already has the power to manipulate the market. However, I think XLF/IGV was already on the edge of a downside breakout. Citrini’s note was just a synchronization signal for bears to build consensus to sell off at the same time. CC @jukan05

I learned this month to use inverted scale charts to find short candidates, great tool for a perma-bull like me Examples: $IGV weekly "double bottom" $COIN daily "parabolic move with bull flag" like SNDK $PLTR daily "H&S bottom" $XLF "downward channel & 200d SMA breakout" https://t.co/uRG9Krq2Lr

房屋销售剧烈减少，这可能危及贷款业务🤔

JUST IN: US loan delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017. The consumer is cracking - higher rates are finally biting. We are probably already in a recession. This data comes straight from the New York Fed Household Debt & Credit Report. Watch credit cards, autos, then jobs.

循环融资实在太爽了🤤

My US stock holdings are mostly in these categories now with small exposures in the tech sectors. I'll take profits on GOOG/AMZN before the ERs. And XLF/XLI will be cut if I see any major SPX selloff coming. In summary I'll be cautious and stay in a risk off mode for Feb. NFA. https://t.co/HMCuqgkh89

不能杠杆有罪论 这样的话，把银行都关门、至少都管起来？ 那是不是应该把SLR往CEX头上套一下？ 只能说USDe循环贷制造了杠杆 但另一方面，所有参与者：做市商、CEX、你们交易的prep、margin、option都在制造流动性，提供杠杆。去杠杆会爆在哪里，是谁都不知道的

A bank failed..

我认为Kevin臆想中的降息+缩表的组合对美国国债绝对是灾难性的，甚至可能埋下金融危机的伏笔。 因为降息+缩表，本质上是同时挤走了美联储+海外的国债买家。 会导致国债收益率飙升，银行抵押物价值流失，引发类似于前几年区域银行破产的危机。

Kevin Warsh极有可能是一个温和鹰派，最起码在所有Trump的候选人最鹰的一个。 他的理想目标是一套降息+缩表的组合，通过抛售国债回收流动性的同时，利用降息回补。 这会导致长端利率上行，短端利率下行，压制高PE股票，和初创公司，但是利好银行，因为银行的基本赚钱逻辑是存短贷长。 所以我们可以关注银行股 $JPM 如果明天真的宣布Kevin Warsh为下一联美联储主席。银行股可能会飙升。

又可以多买一家套壳公司了🤤

不懂，自己都需要融资的公司，还在天天投资别人？