BREAKING: The average mortgage rate has risen to 6.11%, per NYT! HOUSING IS 15% OF US JOBS - AND IT’S ROLLING OVER! Everyone says the economy is re-accelerating - but housing is still frozen and are actually at cycle lows. Housing touches 12–15% of all U.S. employment when you include construction, real estate, mortgage, materials, and housing retail. Here’s the issue: - Pending home sales just hit cycle lows (70.9 - see image attached) - Existing home sales running 3.9M SAAR (historically weak) - Mortgage rates are still above 6%!! (unaffordable) - Housing-linked payrolls = 12–13 million jobs (8% of all payroll jobs) before counting indirect effects - Housing is a leading employer - Jobs follow housing with a lag! We’re already seeing weakness: - Real estate jobs falling - Housing retail softening - Financial activity slowing - Payroll growth revised sharply lower If housing stays weak (i.e. rates stay where they are), job growth will continue to decelerate! And when jobs slow, the policy response is predictable: - Lower rates - Lower long-term yields - Bullish for long duration bonds ( $TLT ) Position yourself!

RT @commonsenseplay: HOUSING IS 15% OF US JOBS - AND IT’S ROLLING OVER! Everyone says the economy is re-accelerating - but housing is stil…

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