我的长期持仓会削减 $WMT 增加 $MSFT 和 $BRK

高估值的防御板块崩塌 $WMT $MRK 大跌4% 在过去三个月的疯长以后，一堆成长性和叙事要比科技股弱很多的工业股，PE比科技股还好😅 简直就是倒反天罡。

无敌沃尔玛

Great read. “Because we know that positioning drives markets, not fundamentals.” It feels nonsense for $WMT’s P/E to be greater than $AMZN’s, but this is how the market rotates positions when sentiment bad. Remember market is like your wife, and she’s always right in short term

这是个自由现金流的问题。 $WMT 虽然贵，但是他的自由现金流越来越多， $AMZN 越来越少。 这就相当于有一个人借一亿，每年赚5000万，另一个人借了1000万，每年赚2000万，谁的危险大？ 所以 $WMT 虽然贵但仍然是防御股

$WMT is crashing anyone dare to short..

I like $WMT

我认为Apple需要支付给户晨风一些广告费，他的带货完全扭转了Iphone在中国的颓势。 沃尔玛也需要。

$WMT 沃尔玛市值超过1万亿美元。

再来一个马后炮：上周五我选的是tgt，结果wmt涨的更好。

THE CONSUMER ISN'T STRONG - NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAY DEFENSE IN YOUR STOCK PORTFOLIO! $WMT, $COST, $MCD, $PG, $PEP, $JNJ, $MRK, $ABBV, $UNH, $WM, $DUK, $LMT Job openings are rolling over hard while the S&P keeps pushing higher. Since late 2022, the relationship between stocks and the labor market has broken down, the 3-month correlation has flipped negative! This isn’t how healthy expansions usually look. Markets are moving on liquidity and headlines from Trump, and not on the real economy! So instead of chasing what’s already gone vertical, my focus is simple: 1. Reduce exposure to high-beta, story-driven names 2. Look for defensive businesses with real cash flow. 3. Favor companies people still spend on even when budgets tighten. That means staples, healthcare and utilities. I’m not trying to predict a crash. I’m just positioning for a slowdown and letting price confirm. Defensive equities plus long term bonds are my new priority Defensive / slowdown-focused watchlist (including 12-month price return): - Walmart ( $WMT ): +31% - Costco ( $COST ): +5% - McDonald’s ( $MCD ): +10% - Procter & Gamble ( $PG ): -10% - PepsiCo ( $PEP ): ~0% - Johnson & Johnson ( $JNJ ): +48% - Merck ( $MRK ): +8% - AbbVie ( $ABBV ): +23% - UnitedHealth ( $UNH ): -34% - Waste Management ( $WM ): +5% - Duke Energy ( $DUK ): +9% - Lockheed Martin ( $LMT ): +20% Prepare yourself!