RT @commonsenseplay: War is crushing bonds right now… But I’m still bullish on $TLT. And most people are missing why. Since the Iran con…

国债收益率再次大涨，川普这次还会出来TACO吗？

当你觉得到“最痛点”想抄底的时候，记住： 不敢买债，就不要买股 毕竟真把经济搞衰退了，不会定价滞胀，利率必然要下去的 痛可以市场对和平失去信心；或者对战争进程失去耐心；或许疯子不想谈判真的炸了大油轮，等等

In simple terms: Marko's saying: “If the world hits another big economic shock, long-term U.S. bonds will become a safe bet again - $TLT would likely rise significantly."

Breaking: Goldman raises recession odds to 30%. Ignore the short term noise, the long term effect is recessionary. Now is the time to accumulate Bonds $TLT - I keep buying at these lows! https://t.co/AmMRcqaIkA

德意志银行开发了一种指数，可以帮助预测特朗普的下一个TACO。 事实证明，这种方法在特朗普之前的重大政策转变中行之有效。 “压力指数”结合了支持率的月度变化、一年期通胀预期以及标普 500 指数和国债收益率的表现。 数值越高，TACO的可能性就越大。 国债收益率是对特朗普影响最大的因素。

RT @commonsenseplay: War is crushing bonds right now… But I’m still bullish on $TLT. And most people are missing why. Since the Iran con…

War is crushing bonds right now… But I’m still bullish on $TLT. And most people are missing why. Since the Iran conflict escalated: • Energy prices ↑ • Inflation fears ↑ • Yields ↑ • Bonds ↓ Classic inflation shock. That’s why bonds AND stocks are both struggling - the exact weakness of the 60/40 portfolio that we hear from every financial advisor out there. History is clear: War is bad for bonds! Because: - Governments spend aggressively - Debt explodes - Inflation rises - Central banks stay tight Bondholders get crushed. So why am I long $TLT? Because the market is focused on the present… while bonds price the future. Right now everyone is pricing: • Higher-for-longer rates • Sticky inflation • Endless deficits But in my opinion that is not how this cycle ends. Every inflation shock eventually breaks something. And when it does? We don’t get inflation…we get demand destruction. That’s when everything will flip: - Inflation collapses (accelerated by AI) - Growth slows hard - Central banks are forced to cut And THAT is when long-duration bonds rip. This is the part most people forget: - Bonds don’t bottom when things look safe - Bonds bottom when things look the worst I positioned for this already. At the end of 2025: • I rotated heavily into long-duration bonds • ~60% allocation While everyone else was still chasing equities. So far in 2026? - Bonds are already outperforming stocks - The “unpopular trade” is starting to work And we’re still early. Also - don’t ignore market structure: $TLT has been: - Heavily shorted - Pushed down into auctions - Used to lock in higher yields for big money That trade unwinds fast when it turns. When the pivot hits, it won’t be gradual. It’ll be violent. Short covering plus rate cuts plus recession fears = vertical move in $TLT The setup is simple: - War → inflation shock → pressure builds - Pressure → something breaks - Something breaks → recession - Recession → bonds win So yes - bonds look terrible today. That’s exactly why I’m bullish. You don’t buy $TLT when it feels safe. You buy it when nobody wants it!

RT @commonsenseplay: Welcome to Bond Hell. Lot of pain the last 2 weeks, feels likes it’s 2022 except it’s not even based on economic data…

Now more than ever is the time to look through the noise and have conviction in your trades. There is no possible way you can figure out Trumps tweets and the short term impact on the markets. But the macro view has not changed, AI is deflationary, the jobs market is continuing to weaken and the consumer is deteriorating. Rates will come down. Long bonds ( $TLT ) are the trade for the next 12 months.

$TLT going green in overnight markets. https://t.co/qjYhoUIdrh

Signals are mixed. 感觉就像回到了周五收盘的原点。原油、VIX和国债，没有很强烈的空头信号。 但是下跌指示中比较强烈的信号是动能板块表现疲软，例如存储、芯片制造和加密货币等都表现疲弱。

WARREN BUFFETT'S SOLUTION TO END AMERICA'S DEFICIT CRISIS QUICKLY! "I could end the deficit in five minutes - You just pass a law that says that anytime there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for reelection.” - Warren Buffett FY2025 numbers don't lie: - Deficit: $1.78 trillion (~5.9% of GDP) Vs. 50-year historical average: 3.8% - Debt held by the public: ~100% of GDP - Net interest on the debt: Over $1 trillion for the first time, now the 2nd-largest federal expense after Social Security! Why this is urgently relevant right now! 2026–2027:Roughly $9–10 trillion in Treasury debt (about 1/3 of all marketable public debt, or 33% maturing within the next 12 months) is coming due in 2026 alone - with another massive wave in 2027. Much of it was borrowed at ultra-low pandemic-era rates (0.5–2.5%). Refinancing at today’s higher rates will drive interest costs even higher, supercharging trillion-dollar deficits unless Congress finally acts. Buffett’s rule would tie every member’s reelection directly to basic fiscal responsibility - no more kicking the can down the road. We need bold ideas! And at the very least rates have to come down ahead of re-financing this amount of debt!

国债市场目前对应的12个月CPI为5.3%，这绝对是反应过度，5.3%油价至少要维持在150美元以上。

This is going to be either really good for stocks and bonds .... or really really bad! $spy $tlt https://t.co/Oz2EdVx1Mh

RT @commonsenseplay: Welcome to Bond Hell. Lot of pain the last 2 weeks, feels likes it’s 2022 except it’s not even based on economic data…

And Bonds will continue to massively outperform stocks in 2026! $TLT $ZFL.TO

This is why you TAKE profits. At the end of 2025, I did exactly what I said I would: I made an incredible (IMO) 75% return on my portfolio in 2025 and more importantly I took profits! Rotated out of stretched equities and moved into bonds at the end of 2025. Not because it felt good - but because the data, positioning, and risk/reward demanded it. So far in 2026? Bonds are outperforming equities. While most are still anchored to last year’s winners and have given back 30/40/50 even 70% of their profits, the cycle has already shifted. This is what I mean when I say: DCA in. DCA out. You don’t get paid for being right once - you get paid for adapting. Markets move in cycles. The Retail crowd is almost always late to that realization. Take the gains when you have them, capturing 80% of a move is good enough. Reallocate when conditions change! That’s how you stay in the game long term. New year, same discipline.

Welcome to Bond Hell. Lot of pain the last 2 weeks, feels likes it’s 2022 except it’s not even based on economic data. I’m buying more today $TLT

持续飙升的国债收益率显示市场现在甚至认为美联储有加息的可能。

海湾国家正在抛售他们的黄金、美债和股票来救急😭 收入一断，只能卖资产了。

那下一任美联储主席是谁？🤯 现在川普似乎不一定会让Warsh当美联储主席了。 他需要找一个真正的纯鸽派！美国急需降息。

$TLT rallying while the S&P continues to drop. I'm accumulating on every drop on $TLT. This is a 12 month play - don't get shaken out by short term noise. If you have conviction in a thesis stick with it. https://t.co/JzKRFQfyrY

$SPY down -0.62% Meanwhile my three high conviction plays: $SRPT +2% $DND.TO +1.1% $TLT +0.1%

$TLT & https://t.co/U0FvaBIeCa And energy prices will come back down. Macklem is the governor of the bank of Canada. I’m extremely bullish on Canadian long term bond ETFs ($ZFL.TO). Economy is crashing in Canada.

美国国债规模超过39万亿美元。

Agree @HenrikZeberg $TLT https://t.co/fnov3301J0

RT @ShanghaoJin: @zeddddd_1 @minozerox @bboczeng 短端才会对这种输入性的通胀敏感 如果石油影响降低，经济会衰退的，衰退情况下长端是必然要下来的

美国财政部最近频繁回购国债。本周更是创纪录的回购了150亿美元，难道是美国有钱提前还债了吗？ 其实美国财政赤字依然在快速扩张，回购的主要原因是注入流动性，国债市场近期由于流动性不足，经常出现收益率飙升的情况，财政部通过回购不受欢迎的旧债帮助做市商筹措资本购买新债。 目前大量的资本都集中在短债，Tbill和现金，导致美元飙升，长债疲软。

WHY THE OIL SPIKE IS BULLISH FOR $TLT Just saw these two charts on my timeline. The one on top is Crude Oil WTI and the bottom is the U.S. 30-year Treasury. Oil jumped on the Iran headlines but look - by the end of the day it pulled right back down. And right alongside it, the 30-year Treasury yields dropped sharply too. That correlation is exactly what I was hoping to see. This oil spike from the Iran situation feels totally temporary to me, when it resolves yields will follow. This will lead to bond prices rallying (as they move in opposite directions). In the bigger picture, oil is heading lower. China went all in on solar - they added more last year than the whole rest of the world combined - and their oil use actually dropped for the second year in a row. Plus the job market is cooling fast. Look at the recent jobs report from Canada - they just lost over 80,000 jobs in one month and unemployment jumped to 6.7%. The U.S. is seeing weakening too - and heading the same way. When that happens, long-term bonds will rally. So this feels like a real opportunity to accumulate more $TLT while the headlines are noisy. That's my plan - accumulation upon accumation. Long term bond ETF's now making up 64% of my portfolio (up from 60%). $TLT $ZFL.TO

$TLT , $ZFL.TO . $SRPT, $DND.TO all going higher today while my shorts print too $OKLO $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS Subscribe for my complete portfolio.

My target is $120 but $135 is possible. $TLT

Bonds back on the menu boys! $TLT $ZFL https://t.co/qM9tiKG9m5

POLL CLOSED - 722 votes in! Here’s where my followers are putting their net new monthly contributions: Equities - 31.2% Gold/Silver/Metals - 26.5% Bonds - 23.7% Oil/Commodities - 18.7% Main takeaway: - Equities squeaked out the win, but nearly 70% went to gold, bonds & commodities combined. This shows a clear defensive and diversified mindset even in a running bull market - lots of hedging going on! Important context: My followers are generally more well-informed & experienced retail investors, so this cautious mix probably doesn’t represent the broader public (who I suspect are still close to 100% equities right now). Comments also noted: Cash, Treasuries, Bitcoin & “mattress money” dominated the replies.

Now is the time to be a contrarian. Oil is a crowded trade- Retail have flocked to it. Long bonds is the contrarian trade right now, it may take a few months to play out but 2026 is the year capital rotates, Retail as usual will be late to the game!

Rates simply have to come down. $TLT

$TLT Patience

RT @commonsenseplay: How all $TLT holders are feeling today. https://t.co/QTXEC8aXvq

仅仅在二月份，美国财政赤字就高达3070亿美元，特朗普的财政政策正在变得越来越失控。最起码在特朗普这一届，美债是不可能控制下来的。

特朗普再次公开要求鲍威尔直接立刻马上降息！ 这是少数一两件我比较同意的事情。

$TLT - market isn't pricing in any sort of cut to interest rates. If we do in the next FOMC meeting - $TLT will rip higher.

BREAKING: The average mortgage rate has risen to 6.11%, per NYT! HOUSING IS 15% OF US JOBS - AND IT’S ROLLING OVER! Everyone says the economy is re-accelerating - but housing is still frozen and are actually at cycle lows. Housing touches 12–15% of all U.S. employment when you include construction, real estate, mortgage, materials, and housing retail. Here’s the issue: - Pending home sales just hit cycle lows (70.9 - see image attached) - Existing home sales running 3.9M SAAR (historically weak) - Mortgage rates are still above 6%!! (unaffordable) - Housing-linked payrolls = 12–13 million jobs (8% of all payroll jobs) before counting indirect effects - Housing is a leading employer - Jobs follow housing with a lag! We’re already seeing weakness: - Real estate jobs falling - Housing retail softening - Financial activity slowing - Payroll growth revised sharply lower If housing stays weak (i.e. rates stay where they are), job growth will continue to decelerate! And when jobs slow, the policy response is predictable: - Lower rates - Lower long-term yields - Bullish for long duration bonds ( $TLT ) Position yourself!

$SPY down -1.13% while $TLT goes green, Bonds continue to outperform equities in 2026, this trend will only accelerate over the next 12 months. https://t.co/o0XwY9mpkR

$TLT Chart 2002 - 2026 ... Look at this 24-year journey of $TLT. It started right here in the early 2000s around these $87 levels. Then came the epic bond bull market as rates fell to zero - climbing steadily and peaking near $175-180 in 2020-21. Then the historic bear market hit - the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle crushed long bonds like never before, sending TLT all the way back down. Now in March 2026 - trading at $87.26, sitting right on that long-term red support line that’s held for decades. This is the best accumulation zone we’ve seen in a generation!! Why now is the time to load $TLT: - Yields are attractive again (4.5-4.7% SEC yield), far better than the near-zero era - The rate-hike shock is fully priced in after the worst bond drawdown in 40+ years - Long duration = massive upside if the Fed cuts further on any slowdown or disinflation - Classic technical reset at multi-decade support with huge mean-reversion potential Zooming out to the longer picture (ignore the noise): - Short-term oil spikes from Iran war? They’ll resolve. - Jobs market is clearly weakening (layoffs rising, hiring slowing) - Housing market has stalled hard (higher rates killed demand) - New Fed Chair coming in - policy shift likely more accommodative - Private credit risks are mounting (hidden leverage and illiquidity - potential trigger for easing) The volatility and pain of 2022-2025? Fully priced in! The chart doesn’t lie -we’ve completed the full cycle and are back at the starting line with higher starting yields and lower prices. Smart money will accumulates at the base. $TLT loading zone activated - I've been accumulating!

How all $TLT holders are feeling today. https://t.co/QTXEC8aXvq

Breaking:Today's US 10-Year Treasury auction ($39 billion sold) - Yield set at 4.217% (the rate buyers get) - Demand: Decent (bid-to-cover 2.45x) - not amazing, but okay - Foreign buyers snapped up a huge 74.5% share - very strong interest! Solid auction, no big sell-off. Yields stayed around 4.21-4.22%. For $TLT: This keeps pressure off bond prices - I expect to see a rebound as foreign demand stays hot!

I'll just leave this here - let's see what happens next. $TLT / USOIL vs $TLT https://t.co/b8MqK1Ijmr

Watch what just happens to $TLT today. For those wondering why $TLT is selling off today (other than Iran war) when CPI results were decent. This is a pattern that often appears around major U.S. Treasury supply. Large players frequently lean on long-duration bonds ahead of auctions (auction today at 1pm EST) by shorting Treasuries (or proxies like $TLT) in the open market and futures. This pushes prices lower and temporarily drives yields higher, making the new bonds coming to auction more attractive. Why does this matter? - Higher yields allow institutions to lock in better long-term returns - Dealers and hedge funds often short Treasury futures / ETFs ahead of supply - Once the auction clears and allocations are filled, those same shorts are covered That covering can create a sharp reversal upward in $TLT as buying pressure returns. Today’s move will follow a similar play imo - Long-duration bonds sold off into supply and yields spike intraday. Liquidity will thin near the auction window. Historically, after this type of positioning event we often see a whipsaw back within days as shorts close and duration buyers step back in. I am continuing to buy $TLT - just added more to my positIon at a price of $87.27. This is a 12 month 2026 trade. Judge me then!

BREAKING: THE ECONOMY AND CONSUMER IS NOT STRONG! Just saw $GOEASY get crushed today -shares down 58% after reporting a C$178 million charge-off in Q4, mostly from delinquent auto and powersports loans. Goeasy is a Canadian lender (they run easyfinancial and LendCare). They give high-interest loans to everyday people - mostly car loans, ATVs, boats, and powersports stuff for higher-risk borrowers. They reported a C$178 million charge-off in Q4 (bad loans piling up), suspended their dividend completely, and warned losses will keep rising into 2026. Why this crash is important: goeasy lends to the exact consumer who feel economic pain first. When they’re seeing this many defaults, it’s a loud warning that consumer debt stress is real and spreading. Again another point to why 2026 is the time to re-allocate into long-term bonds. Expect to see much more of this as 2026 moves forward! More debt pain = Bank of Canada and the Fed will cut rates faster. Lower rates push bond prices up. That’s exactly why I hold $ZFL (Canadian long bonds) and $TLT (US long Treasuries).

Trade Alert: Just added to my $TLT position. (all live trade alerts go in my sub). This short term oil spike is just an opportunity to add to my $TLT position. 12 month trade - will massively outperform equities in 2026. Price target of $120 - the economy is not strong.

Hope you listened. $TLT Rallying! https://t.co/hqTNdop1iE

$SPY down -1.2% while $TLT goes green. https://t.co/In2UJfAij9

I will keep accumulating $TLT at these prices. Probability of recession on Polymarket in 2026 rockets to 41%. https://t.co/fsC4rAgEPr

Oil doubling is a quick inflationary shock, but its second-order effect is deeply deflationary - it kills demand for everything else. Couple that with AI being deflationary and accelerating the deterioration of the jobs market. Once the dust settles, $TLT. People are hating on $TLT right now even with the current overnight drop, but it’s significantly outperforming the $SPY YTD (+0.35% vs -3.79%). And that doesn’t even include the 4.4% yield from its monthly dividends. I’ll keep accumulating at these prices and reinvesting monthly dividends.

BREAKING: $TLT White collar jobs collapsing. Finance & insurance job openings collapse: - Fell 117k in December to just 134k - the lowest level since February 2012. That’s a staggering 410k plunge (–75%) from the 2022 peak. Openings are now lower than at the 2001 recession bottom - and the single-month drop even beat the worst month of the entire 2008 Financial Crisis (–125k). The sector’s job openings rate crashed to 1.9% (fewer than 2 out of every 100 jobs vacant) - the lowest since February 2010 and the weakest this century outside the GFC trough. Finance industry now bracing for a fresh wave of layoffs. AI IS DISINFLATIONARY and will further accelerate this trend! Bullish for $TLT: This is a screaming recession signal in the most rate-sensitive sector of the economy. Markets will now aggressively price in faster and deeper Fed rate cuts through 2026 to head off a hard landing. Lower yields - sharp rally in long-duration Treasuries. $TLT investors eat this data up!

$TLT goes green while the $SPY is down -1.2%. Don't get shaken out by a short term oil spike. 2026 will be the year of the Bond. https://t.co/vOVAL4uVJT

Trade Alert: Bought $20k USD more of $TLT at price of $88.24. This will take 12 months to play out - I'm ignoring the short term price spike in Oil, that will be resolved. The bigger issue is jobs are falling off a cliff, the economy will slow further - FED will have to cut rates. That is not currently priced in. The housing market is at a standstill - mortgage rates above 6% are causing this. Again, Trump will pressure his FED chair pick to do everything he can to bring down the long end. Add on the amount of national debt that needs to be re-financed over the next 12 months - again only way to lower the interest burden is lower rates. I'm staying the course, conviction is just as high and I am accumulating more.

$TLT

不战而屈人之兵才是兵法的最高境界。 可惜Trump并没有足够的政治智慧。 很多人在说伊朗政权多么多么坏怎样…可是美国的目的是为了解救伊朗人吗？战争的目的明明是为了解除核武器。 无论这场战争如何，根结在于那460公斤高纯度铀，只要他们还在，这场战争就不能说成功。

Morgan Stanley yesterday, Oracle today, who's next? The jobs market will collapse this year. $TLT

$TLT

RATES ARE COMING DOWN - $TLT KEVIN WARSH FORMALLY SUBMITTED FOR FED CHAIR POSITION BY WHITE HOUSE.

This chart is crazy! Small Retail traders are now LONG bonds more than EVER before. Big commercial traders are SHORT bonds more than EVER before and have been for a while! That’s why I’m bullish on $TLT right now. The reversal is coming! When everyday traders get this bullish and the big money gets this bearish at the same time, bonds have usually rallied hard soon after.

"The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path" - Jerome Powell Trillions of dollars in U.S. Treasury debt are set to mature over the next 12–24 months. Much of this debt was issued when interest rates were near zero and will now have to be refinanced at rates of 4–5% or higher. At those levels, the additional interest burden is enormous. Refinancing roughly $8 trillion of near-zero-rate debt at 4–5% would increase annual interest costs by an estimated $200–300 billion. Without a meaningful decline in rates, the strain on federal finances will intensify. RATES HAVE TO COME DOWN.

$TLT goes green - hope you listened. I bought more yesterday on the dip. Meanwhile equities continue to bleed red. 2026 is the year of the bond. https://t.co/cV0fzGwdZf

The selloff in $TLT was driven by renewed inflation fears following the spike in oil prices (as noted by Goldman). With Rubio expected to announce additional supply (possibly from Venezuela), oil prices will ease - and $TLT will resume its rally higher. I bought more today. Let the thesis play out, this is a 12 month trade.

My 3 highest convictions plays right now: - $TLT (Price target of $120 by the end of 2026) - $SRPT (Price target of $50 by the end of 2026) - $DND.TO / $DYNDF (buyout incoming - easy double)

Trade alert: Just bout more $TLT anything under $90 is a steal

BREAKING: The U.S. Debt Wall Is GETTING REAL IN 2026 - and It’s Bullish for $TLT! That massive blue spike on the chart isn’t “someday.” It’s 2026! THEY WILL CRASH STOCKS TO SAVE THE BOND MARKET! Trillions in U.S. Treasury debt mature over the next 12 - 24 months, issued when rates were near 0% and must now be refinanced at 4–5%+!! That’s the structural problem markets are underpricing. In plain English: - The U.S. loaded up on ultra-cheap debt - That debt is rolling into a much higher-rate world - Interest expense accelerates sharply - Something has to absorb the shock The US simply can't afford these kind of interest payments at 4 to 5%! Refinancing ~$8T of near-zero debt at 4 to 5% adds $200–300B a year in interest expense! That's FISCAL STRESS! Stress like this eventually means lower long-end yields i.e. Bullish for $TLT. The choices are limited: - Slower growth - Higher deficits - Financial repression - Lower long-term rates This is why the debt wall is not bearish for Treasuries. It’s bearish for sustained high yields! Over time, the system simply can’t tolerate “higher for longer” with debt this large. That’s the bull case for $TLT! Structurally, this setup argues for lower long-end yields, not higher. Potential catalyst: Flight to saftey from the IRAN war plus markets are increasingly focused on the next Fed leadership decision, with expectations that a Trump-aligned Fed pick would favor faster normalization and earlier rate cuts, consistent with his broader agenda! If that shift materializes, duration reprices quickly. Pay attention before the move, not after. NOW IS THE TIME.

This is literally the goldilox set up for $TLT. Truflation US CPI is 0.78% after a significant wave of cooling across multiple categories: - Housing (-0.20%), - Utilities (-0.16%), - Transport (-0.13%), - and Food (-0.10%). AI is deflationary. Rates are coming down. The IRAN war just triggered a flight to safety.

BUY $TLT NOW! This is not Venezuela - and will not be over in less than 24 hours!

$TLT is the greatest safe haven. We are about to rocket even more.

I'm Mostly Against Borrowing Money to Invest in 2026 – Here's My Honest Take A lot of Millennials and Gen Z are still borrowing from the bank to buy stocks, ETFs, crypto or real estate - the trend never really went away in fact it's only growing. As of early 2026, approximately 24% to 43% of retail investors use some form of leverage, such as margin or options, to fund their investments. This trend is heavily driven by younger generations; for instance, a 2021 study indicated that 80% of Gen Z and 60% of Millennial investors have reported taking on debt to invest, compared to only 9% of Baby Boomers - Secured loan rates right now are around 5.25% if you put up your investments as collateral. - Inflation is just 2.3%. Stocks had a strong 2025 - so yeah, the math can look tempting on paper. I called my bank and ran a quick example: - Borrow $10k at 5.25% over 3 years. - After the tax deduction on the interest, real cost is about $500. - Put it in simple broad ETFs expecting a conservative 8% long-term return and you'd walk away with roughly $2,000 profit after paying everything back. Sounds okay, right? But the truth is I'm still mostly against using leverage to invest. It only makes sense in very limited situations, and even then only in tiny amounts. My personal rule? Never borrow more than 10% of your net worth for this. So if you have a $100k net worth that means max $10k - and honestly I'd probably do way less. You need: - A super secure job and big emergency fund - Almost zero other debt - The stomach to watch big drops without selling - A plan to hold 10+ years in boring index funds If you're new to investing, have shaky income, or panic when the market falls 20%? Stay far away - it can wreck you. I'm thinking about a very small amount myself, but nothing aggressive - there is lots of opportunites out there right now, both in bonds and equities. Slow and steady still wins for most people. Would you or are you currently borrowing money to invest right now? Tell me honestly in the comments.

RT @commonsenseplay: Breaking: Stanley Druckenmiller says he expects to lose money on his short bonds position $TLT He’s not using it for…

Breaking: Stanley Druckenmiller says he expects to lose money on his short bonds position $TLT He’s not using it for profit - he’s using it as a hedge against higher-risk bets in: - Korea, Japan & Brazil - Copper - Gold Important context: Druckenmiller knows he has a massive retail following. Timing matters. When a legendary macro investor publicly lays out positioning, you have to consider the possibility that exposure is already being reduced into strength. i.e. you are the exit liquidity!! No one gives away their full portfolio edge for free. I’m positioned the other way - 60% of my portfolio is long bonds $TLT

Buy https://t.co/U0FvaBIeCa - Canadian version of $TLT now. Their economy is disintegrating. https://t.co/mIYsMR47tF

$TLT continues to push higher while Quantum is imploding. Today is a good day. https://t.co/m2PAmDgaRF

The economy is not strong. Position yourself now $TLT I will continue to shout this from the rooftops.

$TLT continues its breakout above $90. $100 is coming - 2026 is the year of the Bond. I'm long bonds with 60% of my portfolio. https://t.co/HPqVKxfgEY

THE ONLY WAY TO BEAT THE STOCK MARKET IN 2026 AND WIN ACCORDING TO LEGENDARY INVESTOR GARY SHILLING Shilling explains: - "If you are trying to beat the game you've got to be against the consensus" - "It doesn't mean that you are simply a contrarian in a sense of .. whatever the consensus is i'm going to take the opposite side, no no, cause theres times the consensus can be right and often is" - "But what it means is, that when you come up with an idea and it is counter to the consensus and you think it's got a good chance of happening, then that's when you want to jump on it with all force" This is exactly what Shilling did in the early 2000s with the housing bubble - and his firm made a fortune by positioning early, before the consensus flipped. My current counter-consensus position - and why I’m committing heavily to it: - Long-duration bonds! - I’ve moved roughly 60% of my portfolio into long-term bond ETFs: $TLT and $ZFL.TO Here’s my logic: - Growth is slowing. Leading indicators continue to soften, which historically precedes rate cuts, not higher-for-longer policy. - When cuts arrive, the long end responds. Duration works in your favor, falling yields translate into outsized price gains for long-dated bonds. - Supply at the long end is extremely limited. Bonds with maturities of 20+ years make up only 1.7% of total annual Treasury issuance. This matters more than most investors realize. - Yields above 5% create systemic stress. Mortgage rates will surge, corporate refinancing costs explode, and federal interest expense accelerates rapidly. - As yields approach 6%, U.S. debt dynamics become increasingly untenable. - Policy response becomes unavoidable. The Fed would not need to buy much duration to bring down long-term yields given how small issuance is at the long end (1.7%). Yield-curve intervention becomes a low-cost, high-impact lever that they can pull! - That’s when $TLT rips! Any explicit or implicit suppression of long-end yields sends $TLT much much higher. This position is the opposite of current consensus. In fact ~26% of publicly available TLT shares are shorted! Most believe inflation stays sticky and long-term yields continue climbing. I’m betting that they don’t, and even if inflation proves stubborn, the Fed still intervenes to protect financial stability. Risk-reward is too hard to ignore for me. Long bonds are trading near multi-decade price lows, with much of the bad news already priced in. And while you wait? You’re paid 4.3% in distributions (monthly) to hold the position. That’s the setup: limited supply, policy backstop, and big upside! Common sense, not crowd consensus. What's your current counter consensus view?

https://t.co/U0FvaBIeCa Canadian long term bonds (Canadian equivalent of $TLT) is ~20% of my portfolio. The economy is tanking much quicker than the US. Rates have to drop - just look at housing! 2026 is a generational opportunity for Bonds both in the US and Canada. https://t.co/eCzYBYdujy

$TLT BREAKS $90 NEXT STOP $100. https://t.co/4d59kzlYHG

RT @commonsenseplay: 2026 is going to be juicy for $TLT! https://t.co/BNsZBUk2eN

SPY cratering while $TLT just keeps going higher and I keep accumulating. Breakout continues. https://t.co/ob1OAeG5Uw

I read the Citrini paper and summarised the 10 key points you need to know so you don't have to: 1. It's a "what if" scenario from called the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. 2. It's not saying it WILL happen, just a smart thought experiment on what could go wrong if AI gets way too good too fast. 3. The basic idea: Late 2025 AI agents start doing most white-collar work - coding full apps, customer service, analysis, bookings, you name it. Companies go nuts replacing people to save money. 4. At first it looks awesome - profits jump, stocks rip higher into late 2026. 5. Then the nasty loop hits - all those laid-off office workers (who do most of the spending on houses, vacations, cars, restaurants) stop buying stuff. 6. Sales drop everywhere. So companies lean even harder on AI to cut more costs then Rinse and repeat. 7. They call it "Ghost GDP" - machines make more but regular people have no cash to buy it. 8. By mid-2028 in this story, Unemployment hits 10.2% S&P 500 down 38% from the highs! 9. House prices tank in tech cities (SF -11%, Seattle -9%, Austin -8%) 10. SaaS companies laying off 15%, private credit defaults popping, payments slow down It's the ultimate AI paradox - the better AI works, the more it can wreck the economy that relies on people earning and spending. This aligns with my thesis on $TLT - I went long with 60% of my portfolio.

Why you should be so bullish on $TLT in 2026

RETAIL IS GETTING MASSACRED - AGAIN! $OKLO $IONQ $RGTI $FIG $IREN $JOBY down 50-80% from the 2025 hype peaks! Jobs weakening. Consumer sentiment crushed. Credit delinquencies exploding. Housing market stalled and Now the Freight Index just crashed to 2009 GFC levels. Meanwhile my $TLT bonds are +3.2% YTD plus dividends BEATING the $SPY which is flat. I’ve been screaming for months: 2026 = YEAR OF THE BOND I’m all-in. Are you still bag-holding these memes hoping for a recovery or finally waking up? SMART MONEY IS EXITING WHILE RETAIL CONTINUES TO BUY - DON'T BE THEIR EXIT LIQUIDITY! Common Sense Investing Pays!

Part of my portfolio is heavily exposed to Canadian long-term bonds via $ZFL.TO - essentially the Canadian version of $TLT. Here’s the International Monetary Fund’s projection for Canada: - Real GDP: -4.9% - Unemployment: 9.6% (YES YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY) - Stocks: -33% - House prices: -25% - Wages: -0.5% - Oil: -33% If this scenario plays out - and I believe Canada’s economy cracks faster than the U.S. - long-duration bonds will rip as growth collapses and central bank policy eventually moves to support. That’s why I’m positioned in $ZFL.TO.

Fundamentals matter much more than technicals. But when both point the same way, I sit up and pay attention. That’s how Druckenmiller invested - build the thesis on fundamentals, then use charts to support timing. $TLT is setting up. Price is pushing against the top of a multi-year downtrend, and we’re seeing higher lows underneath. It's in the process of breaking out: - Target 1: $99 a +10.5% increase - Target 2: $110 a +23% increase I think eventually get to $120+ over the next 12 moths. (a +35% increase) Yields will come down with interest rate cuts - money will continue rotating defensive. Sometimes you just need to sit, keep accumulating, stay patient… and collect the monthly dividend. Pic by @paratereo

THE ECOMONY IS STARTING TO CRASH! Breaking: - Cass Freight Index Shipments Plunge -7.1% YoY in January to 0.886 - Lowest Since April 2009 when there was a Deepening Recession! The Cass Freight Index is a monthly measure of North American freight shipment volumes and expenditures, serving as a key indicator of economic health by tracking how much stuff is being shipped around. - Total shipments down -20.9% over this brutal run, - Literally mirrors the 2008 Financial Crisis meltdown when we saw a similar decline (see image below) Forecast is even worse - seasonal trends point to a further -11.0% YoY dive in February. Look i've always been an optimist - and nobody wants a recession (me included) but I see the writing on the wall and I am getting prepared. We are heading for a recession - and like I've said before 2026 will be the year for Long Term US Bonds $TLT

RT @commonsenseplay: 2026 is going to be juicy for $TLT! https://t.co/BNsZBUk2eN

2026 is going to be juicy for $TLT! https://t.co/BNsZBUk2eN

MUST READ FOR ANYONE INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET. If you're going to invest in any world country's Treasuries, it's the US - $TLT. Not China, not Germany, not India- but the USA. We're the leader in AI, which has and will continue to impact every industry. The leader in AI runs the world - and will always be the safe haven when other industries collapse due to AI's impact. Just look at the sell-off in SaaS over the last couple of weeks and even cybersecurity companies today on the Anthropic Claude release. This is an unprecedented rate of change. Software developers didn't predict they'd be the first to go when developing these LLMs! Who knows what sector is next? $TLT is your safety net during uncertainty, while paying a monthly yield. Common Sense Investing

Trade Alert: Added to $TLT Just bought more $TLT. The headline everyone’s missing isn’t PCE - it’s GDP. U.S. GDP came in well below expectations - the largest downside surprise in years (biggest miss vs. consensus since 2022). Growth is clearly rolling over. 1. GDP: Major miss vs estimates 2. Housing: Activity slowing, permits and sales soft 3. Jobs: Continuing claims drifting higher 4. Credit: Delinquencies ticking up Yes, PCE came in slightly above expectations - but that data is backward-looking. Meanwhile, real-time inflation data (Truflation) has collapsed in recent months, now tracking closer to 1.5%. Inflation is falling - Growth is slowing. That’s the setup bonds want. This is exactly why I’m adding to $TLT here.

The more important piece is the huge miss in GDP. The economy is slowing, the jobs and housing market tell us that. PCE inflation data narrowly above expectations but the data is months old, we know it dropped off a cliff through Truflation the last few months. This is good news for $TLT- buying more!

The Fed already has January CPI data, so December PCE is a non-event. Long-duration bonds don't seem to care.

Is It Time to Rotate Out of Stocks and Into Bonds? This chart shows a simple but powerful signal about confidence in the market right now. It compares “want” stocks vs. “need” stocks. XLY = things people buy when they feel good and have extra money. XLP = everyday essentials people buy no matter what. The orange line is the XLY/XLP ratio. When it goes up, people are leaning into “wants.” When it falls (like it has since the 2025 highs), they’re leaning into “needs.” People are spending on toothpaste and groceries, not vacations and Teslas - that tells you something! Right now, the ratio is around 1.30–1.33. Staples are clearly outperforming. XLP is up about 13.5% YTD, while XLY is down roughly 2–3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 keeps climbing - near ATH's. So the overall market is rising, but discretionary spending is lagging. That kind of divergence can be an early sign of caution. With that backdrop, this could be a good time to rotate some exposure out of equities and into $TLT. Anyone else feeling a bit more careful with spending or investing lately? image courtesy of @notanotherquant

RT @commonsenseplay: And now the Atlanta Fed weighs in: business inflation expectations have tumbled to 1.9% - dipping under the 2% target…

HOUSING IS 15% OF US JOBS - AND IT’S ROLLING OVER! Everyone says the economy is re-accelerating - but housing is still frozen and are actually at cycle lows. Housing touches 12–15% of all U.S. employment when you include construction, real estate, mortgage, materials, and housing retail. Here’s the issue: - Pending home sales just hit cycle lows (70.9 - see image attached) - Existing home sales running 3.9M SAAR (historically weak) - Mortgage rates are still above 6%!! (unaffordable) - Housing-linked payrolls = 12–13 million jobs (8% of all payroll jobs) before counting indirect effects - Housing is a leading employer - Jobs follow housing with a lag! We’re already seeing weakness: - Real estate jobs falling - Housing retail softening - Financial activity slowing - Payroll growth revised sharply lower If housing stays weak (i.e. rates stay where they are), job growth will continue to decelerate! And when jobs slow, the policy response is predictable: - Lower rates - Lower long-term yields - Bullish for long duration bonds ( $TLT ) Position yourself!

$TLT goes green again, BONDS OUTPERFORMNG STOCKS. YTD performance, including dividends, stands at +3.2%. With another dividend payout coming on February 2nd. As a reminder, $TLT offers a 4.3% yield, with monthly distributions that you can reinvest for compounded growth. Compare that to the equity benchmark $SPY, which turned negative today YTD. I've said it a hundred times, and I'll say it again: 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the bond. I see $TLT delivering 30-40% total returns by year's end, driven by shifting rates and weakening labour market.

RT @abcampbell: Kalsi has more alpha on rates than fed funds futures 👀 This is a big deal https://t.co/ohdA14Rpbv

And now the Atlanta Fed weighs in: business inflation expectations have tumbled to 1.9% - dipping under the 2% target and hitting the lowest mark since 2020. So much for the sticky inflation narrative... I added more to my $TLT position today - all my live trades go in my X Sub.

Breaking: Multiple Fed officials signal more rate cuts are likely if inflation continues to cool. Markets are now pricing in a 7% chance of a March cut - and that probability is creeping higher by the day. $TLT will have a big year. I keep growing my positon.

RT @commonsenseplay: How often U.S. bonds beat U.S. stocks (last 40+ years) Over the last 45 years - bonds have outperformed the S&P 500…

BREAKING: 1 in 4 unemployed Americans have been looking for work for 6+ months Peter Navarro was preparing us - WE COULD ALREADY BE IN A RECESSION. $TLT

How often U.S. bonds beat U.S. stocks (last 40+ years) Over the last 45 years - bonds have outperformed the S&P 500 11 times. Years bonds outperformed equities: 1981 1982 1984 1990 1994 2000 2001 2002 2008 2011 2018 That’s 26% of the time - roughly 1 in 4. Most of those years were when stocks stumbled or markets were risk-off. 2026 will be one of those years - WE ARE OVERDUE - plus the set up is there: 🔹 Rates are coming down 🔹 Jobs market is slowing 🔹 Risk-off environment

Started two new stock positions today - first additions in a while. Both are 1% starter positions and already shared in my X Sub. Even when equity indices look stretched, there are always selective single-name opportunities. You just have to be disciplined and patient. Portfolio remains defensive - bonds as ballast. Longs: Real businesses. Real cash flow. Or asymmetric biotech setups with defined risk/reward. Shorts: Where hype still far exceeds fundamentals - especially in quantum and nuclear. 2025 delivered 75%. Now the focus is making 2026 even better. Let's lock in!

$TLT just broke $90. Next stop $100 Hope you listened. https://t.co/mfhverAvNd

My other major bond position: $ZFL.TO It’s essentially the Canadian equivalent of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( $TLT ) - but for long-duration Canadian government bonds. It’s been quietly pushing higher. The Canadian economy is deteriorating faster than the U.S. - and the cracks are already showing. Today’s inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the disinflation trend. If that continues it will rip much much higher - Don’t sleep on this one.

Will $TLT surpass $90 tomorrow and continue it's breakout? Currently up another +.22% in overnight markets. https://t.co/BsEqxqsNzT

BREAKING: US 2025 JOBS REVISED DOWN BY ~1 MILLION - LARGEST DOWNWARD REVISION IN DECADES!! WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS! $TLT The Bureau of Labor Statistics just delivered a massive benchmark revision. What was previously reported as solid job growth in 2025 has now been revised down by roughly 1,000,000 jobs. That makes 2025 the weakest non-recession labor year in over two decades. Let that sink in - TWO DECADES! For months, headline payroll prints suggested resilience while in reality the labor market was much softer. Even before this revision: - Total 2025 job gains were tracking near historic lows outside recessions - Hiring was heavily concentrated in healthcare & government - Cyclical sectors (manufacturing, transportation) were already weakening Now the adjustment confirms it: The labor market wasn’t strong - it was overstated. Why this is so important: 1. Jobs are a lagging indicator -and they were already slowing. 2. Consumer spending depends on income growth. And consumer spending drives 70% of GDP. 3. Leverage across markets is near record levels. 4. There is almost no cash cushion left in portfolios. Leverage and weakening labor data is a disaster. Now is the time to buy long term bonds $TLT - I am shouting this from the rooftops so you make money from this!!!!

THE YOUNG INVESTOR IS RISKING IT ALL IN THE STOCK MARKET VERSUS BUYING A HOME! FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.226T (Dec 2025). THIS IS A ALL TIME HIGH. 1. US margin debt as a share of REAL disposable personal income just exceeded 6% for the first time (6.2%, per Real Investment Advice). Again this is the highest on record. 2. Per analyses of FINRA data, margin debt has climbed the last 8 months in a row and is up roughly $326B YoY. Leverage is accelerating higher and higher every month as investors FOMO into the stock market. 3. Historically, extremes in leverage tend to show up in late‑cycle environments. i.e. right before a correction/collapse 4. We saw similar “speculation peaks” right before before the 2000 dot‑com bust and pre‑GFC in 2007. 5. There is almost NO CASH on the sidelines, Retail has went all in on the stock market because buying a home is not achievable through saving alone: - Retail portfolio cash allocation ~14% (near dot‑com lows) This is dangerous. 6. 2025 was the weakest job market in 22 years outside of recessions (after revisions): - Total payrolls rose only +181k in 2025 (Dec‑to‑Dec). - Private education and health services added +697k. - Ex‑education/health, the rest of the economy was NEGATIVE ‑0.5M! 7. Young investors are literally saying “I feel like my money is safer in the stock market than in a house.” A generation locked out of homeownership has found another way to build wealth - taking risk in equities. This is not going to end well. 8. Why long‑duration Treasuries like $TLT could be a great 2026 option: - In a growth scare, de‑risking, yields will fall fast and duration will rally. - $TLT just reclaimed its 200‑day MA (~$88). 2026 will be the year of long duration Bonds! I am long TLT with 60% of my portfolio!

Seeing all the bearish posts on FinX lately has me second-guessing my own downbeat take on the market and what's coming. Charts look ugly as hell, but when everyone's piling on the doom here, and I see bullish long term bond $TLT posts everywhere I start worrying about crowded trades getting wrecked. But nah, take a step back -X is just a tiny bubble of us market junkies obsessing over every tick and tweet. We are not the average retail investor who is blissfully unaware of what is coming. Your timeline's curated to what you follow too - out in the real world, most retail folks are parked in ETFs, not glued to the latest CPI prints. US ETFs raked in $1.48T in inflows last year pushing assets over $13T. And only about 13% of households even hold them - the average Joe? Blissfully holding index funds, unaware of the writing on the wall. Latest consumer survey results? Bullish at 38.5%, bearish right behind at 38.1%. Pretty even keel. Hell, 74% of business leaders are pumped for 2026. So, is it really crowded if the masses don't see the storm coming? My bearish bet's still on with 60% of my portfolio in long term bonds ETF's $TLT and https://t.co/1xeqzV9teb.

$TLT BREAKOUT ALERT - FIRST ABOVE 200-WEEK MA IN 7+ YEARS! Chart attached closed at $89.72 (+0.55% today, massive 56M+ volume), decisively breaking the key 200-week MA (~88-89) for the first time since 2018 cycles! What happened during the Last breakout? It kicked off a major bond bull run as rates fell. YTD performance edge: - $TLT +3.1% (total return) vs. S&P 500 -0.33% drop. Bonds quietly outperforming while equities wobble. Retail chased gold/silver... bonds are next! Catalysts: 1. Monster 30-year Treasury auction yesterday (bid-to-cover ~2.66x, strong demand) 2. AI/deflation forecasts plus light inflation prints driving lower-for-longer rates 3. Trumps new FED chair pick driving accelerated rate cuts 4. Rebound from $74 lows already underway - targets 100+ if momentum holds! I've said it before and I will say in again 2026 is year of the BOND - I am long with 60% of my portfolio since November 2025.

这次CPI出来以后，降息的预期就增强了。这可能会削弱 美元指数 $DXY 增强其他货币。 还有就是市场的走势，尤其是大型科技股的走势羸弱，会进一步增加避险的需求。 避险类资产类似于外币、防御股等依然会保持强势。

I don't always agree with @CathieDWood but she is right "the AI Boom is massively deflationary". Truflation has fallen off a cliff - it's now down to 0.8%. Rates will come down and Long Bonds will rip up. $TLT https://t.co/bRSI6hGLcc

$10 TRILLION!!! That’s how much U.S. government debt matures in the next 12 months. Roughly 1/3 of all outstanding debt needs to be refinanced. If rates drop just 1.5% on that $10T rollover? That’s $150 BILLION per year in interest savings!!! For perspective: - The entire United States Department of Education budget is ~$70B. - Total United States Department of Veterans Affairs spending runs ~$300B+. A modest move lower in long rates wipes out an entire federal department’s worth of interest expense. You don’t think Trump wants that? Lower long-end yields aren’t just market noise - they’re a fiscal necessity. And when long yields fall, long-duration bonds rip. That’s why I’m loading up on $TLT. Because if the “Art of the Deal” playbook is about refinancing cheaper… Long bonds are the trade - Trump will make the deal!

$TLT rallies while the $SPY crashes. Now is the time - 2026 will be the year of the Bond. https://t.co/IA93Mk8TJa

Buy $TLT now. $TLT is up pre-market on this news (CPI coming in under expectations), we will see $100 soon. Inflation has fallen off a cliff. The proliferation of AI will drive deflation.

CNBC got it right - per my post earlier (below) the demand is there for $TLT. One of the US's best performing auctions. Sentiment turning - now is the time to buy! Price target $120. Video courtesy of:@1CoastalJournal https://t.co/hQCRUS41sK

Why $TLT bounced today! The 30-Year Treasury auction was very strong. The U.S. sold $25B in 30-year bonds and demand came in well above normal: - Yield: 4.75% - Investors were willing to accept a slightly lower yield than expected i.e. strong demand - Bid-to-cover: 2.66x (vs 2.36x avg last 6 months) - Foreign buyers: 69.9% (highest in months) For every $1 sold, the Treasury received $2.66 in bids. That’s real demand for long-term bonds -which pushes yields down and helps $TLT move higher. Big money stepped in today!

When will people understand, AI will drive deflation. $TLT will go to the moon.

If I made you money or saved you money - support the mission and subscribe to my my sub. It helps me out. $IONQ $RGTI $BTQ $OKLO $JOBY $SRPT $TLT I post my full portfolio, live trade alerts and answer DM's one on one. You also support the mission of bringing the truth to retail investors not just hype and a controlled narrative!

This is why I am so bullish on $TLT for 2026!

You will never buy the exact bottom. You will never sell the exact top. And you don’t need to. Capturing 70–80% of a move is more than enough to outperform most investors! You’ll never buy enough at the bottom. You’ll never sell enough at the top. That’s the reality. Buying some near the lows is infinitely better than buying nothing. Selling some near the highs is infinitely better than selling nothing. In a historic market run-up like we are having right now, greed is what turns great gains into painful regrets! Most people don’t lose money because they were early - they lose it because they refused to take profits. Now is the time, you sense it, you see the data on the consumer weakening, jobs market continually slowing and consumer sentiment at decade lows. You feel it in your bones that the good times won't last forever. The goal at the bottom: - Buy enough that you’re happy if it was the low, and comfortable if it wasn’t. The goal near the top: - Sell enough to lock in gains, move real money into your bank account, improve your life, and secure time and financial freedom - or at the very least, reload so you have ammo if dips come! DCA in. DCA out. Common Sense Investing. It’s how you stay disciplined, manage greed, and build long-term wealth! I made a 75% return in 2025 - I didn't get greedy, I saw the writing on the wall and transferred 60% of my portfolio into long term bond ETF's like $TLT towards the end of 2025. Prepare yourself.

$TLT is breaking out. I am long with 60% of my portfolio - 2026 is the year of the Bond! https://t.co/tzaxryN4fx

$TLT is going green today. The market is seeing through the weak job numbers - just look at the revisions. This is not a strong economy. https://t.co/eedIkhHPZx

$10T of US gov debt matures in the next year. This is 1/3 of everything outstanding. Refinancing risk is huge… but Trump’s all about the deal. He’ll push rates lower anyway he can. Cheaper refi = massive interest savings. For reference a 1.5% rate drop on the $10T maturing debt saves $150B/year in interest- about the size of the entire federal education/Department of Education budget ($67-80B) plus major chunks of veterans' benefits ($300-330B total). That’s why I’m loading up on $TLT - Art of the Deal in action

BREAKING: THE JOBS REPORT TOMORROW WILL BE HORRIFIC - PETER NAVARRO JUST ADMITTED IT ON FOX TODAY. BONDS ARE RALLYING, EQUITIES ARE DOWN. A RECESSION MAY ALREADY BE UPON US. PREPARE YOUR 401K NOW. https://t.co/EvlI5WsaR0

The decline resumes for quantum stocks $RGTI $QBTS $IONQ while $TLT rallies. Today’s a good day. https://t.co/Nta6QwxiWg

THE BEST PERFORMING ASSET OVER THE NEXT 2 YEARS WILL NOT BE STOCKS! Not a guaranteed moonshot (risks like sticky debt/fiscal issues remain), but if AI truly bends the curve, $TLT looks positioned as one of the standout performers ahead. If AI delivers the deflationary shock many expect - slashing costs, boosting productivity, and crushing long-term inflation, long-duration Treasuries stand to benefit massively. $TLT (currently $88) could see serious upside: - Forecasts point to $115–$129 by end-2026 which implies a +30–45% potential In a stronger deflation scenario (e.g., inflation goes to 0% or negative, per views like Cathie Wood's or Truflation tracker), long bonds could rally even harder harder! Bullish AI equates to deflation thesis already echoed by analysts calling TLT a direct play on falling real/nominal rates. Couple that with Trumps new FED chair pick and 2026 will be the year of the Bond!

$TLT goes higher - 2026 will be the year of the Bond. https://t.co/W16eZ6RaXD

WARSH OUT. BESSENT IN. BUY $TLT NOW - RATES WILL BE BACK UNDER 1% IN NO TIME. https://t.co/AqC4b7FDQJ

The hardest part of this game of investing isn't finding the trade - it's sitting on your hands when the market dangles exactly what you were looking for, but you're not in it. I've watched my old setups and positions unfold without me in the position more times than I care to count. Asking myself "WHY DID I NOT JUST WAIT"! Price gets stopped out on some noise, then rockets to where I thought it would go. Move after move lights up the screen, everyone else is piling in, and you're just... flat...doing nothing. Look, I've been wrong plenty - big macro calls that went sideways, timing exact stock collapses (e.g. quantum), bets that looked brilliant until they didn't. That urge to "do something," to justify your screen time, to post in your sub, to scratch the itch - it's killed more money than bad analysis ever has. It turns sharp people into gamblers. But after over a decade of this, here's what sticks: 1. The real money isn't made chasing everything, it's made in the waiting. 2. I mostly just sit around reading, thinking, and waiting. 3. When the conviction hits.. when liquidity, fundamentals, technicals, and the macro all line up like planets - you don't nibble. You go big (e.g. my recent 60% allocation to $TLT) But 90% of the time? You do nothing and protect the capital. Let the fat pitch come to you. Master that silence and ignore the noise out there on X. The market will clarify itself if you don't force it. Discipline isn't sexy, but it's profitable. Common sense over action every damn time.

US LABOR MARKET WEAKENS: MULTIPLE JOBHOLDERS HIT RECORD 9.3 MILLION, ABOVE GFC LEVELS Buy $TLT now.

$TLT is the only game in town - AP/NY Fed bombshell solidifys this: The Amercian wealthy continue to ramp up spending while the average American treads water. - Households >$125k up 2.3% real spending since '23; - Middle ($40-125k) +1.6%; - Bottom <$40k just +0.9%. This is K-shaped fragility on full display. Dallas Fed says: - Top 20% now 57% of spending (up from 53% in '90s), and 60% of earnings. Moody's says: - Top 10% drive 49% of consumption (near record high); - Top 20% >63% in mid-2025 data. - Economy tethered to the rich. This is Unsustainable and remember the Consumer engine is 70% of GDP. The bottom 80% continue to be squeezed by sticky inflation on essentials. But when top earners pull back (e.g. recent stock or bitcoin dip, confidence hit, and the snowball gathers pace etc.), aggregate demand will then tank fast leading to a surge in recession odds! If this plays out, bonds are the only game in town. This brittle, top-heavy so-called growth isn't robust - it's vulnerable. There will be a reality check and with softer data incoming the Fed will be forced to cut meaning lower yields. Long duration like $TLT will shine then. https://t.co/zy5S9RrC3T

Common sense TRUMPS hype. Every. Single. Time. How’s your portfolio holding up? I made +75% in 2025. In 2026 so far I am +4% YTD while the entire market bleeds! Everyone on X is down 10 to 50% as hype stocks & tech get crushed. S&P just went red for the year. Don't chase memes or overvalued AI/Quantum plays. Stick to fundamentals: real earnings, strong balance sheets, sane valuations. Diversify properly, quality longs plus bonds plus hedges/shorts + cash/money market, even REITs. Position sizing rules that save you: Max 5% per stock (even less on riskier ones) Keep cash in reserve to buy the dips or add more to your shorts!

Today's a good day! Short's printing ( $IONQ $RGTI $JOBY $OKLO $BTQ ) 60% of my portfolio is in $TLT and https://t.co/U0FvaBHGMC https://t.co/1g0j5umhgW

2026 is the year of the bond. $TLT rallying today while the market implodes - huge upside here. https://t.co/0GFxZwjAZ1

Buy $TLT now.

Finally the market joined me in the risk off mode.

In a sea of RED, $TLT goes green. Now is the time to buy! https://t.co/vANFctKPDP

Am I one of these guys? Lol I entered my position at the end of October 2025. $TLT

美国政府再次关门。

$TLT Major Fed Shakeup and Fresh PCE Inflation Data What this means for $TLT over the next 12 months. President Trump just officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026. Warsh is a known hawk: - former Fed governor - longtime critic of prolonged easy money i.e. QE and - keeping rates too low for too long. He’s repeatedly argued for tighter policy when inflation shows any stickiness. This nomination brings real hawkish risk into the future outlook. Latest inflation check (Nov 2025 data released today): - Core PCE +2.8% y/y (up from 2.7% in Oct) • - Headline PCE +2.8% y/y Inflation is still cooling on the big-picture trend but clearly sticky above the 2% target. No “mission accomplished” signal yet. Current policy snapshot: - Fed funds target: 3.50–3.75% (Jan FOMC held rates - first pause after the 2025 cutting cycle) Market pricing (CME FedWatch plus economist dot plots): only 1–2 cuts (or possibly zero) expected in 2026 - “Higher for longer” narrative is strengthening long end of the curve: - 30-year Treasury yield sitting at roughly 4.85 to 4.88% - $TLT (20+ year Treasury ETF) currently $87.50 - Duration 17 years is extremely sensitive to any shift in rate expectations. My 12-Month $TLT Outlook (3 ways I think this will play out): 1. Most probably is that the soft landing continues, inflation drifts toward 2%, Fed delivers 1 to 2 cautious cuts and the funds rate settles around 3.0–3.5%. - If this happens long yields fall to 4.2–4.5% range. - $TLT will rally to mid-to-high $90s (+8–15% total return including carry). 2. In a hawkish scenario (Warsh confirmed and inflation stays sticky): - fewer/no cuts, yields hold or grind toward 5.0–5.2%. - $TLT grinds down to low $80s (flat to –8% return). 3. In a bullish scenario (data softens quickly, Warsh moderated by Senate): - 3+ cuts, yields drop below 4.2%. $TLT pushes toward $100–105 (+15–20% upside). Key risks to watch: - Senate confirmation hearings (could get spicy) - Upcoming Dec/Jan PCE prints - Any reacceleration in wages or services inflation Bottom line: Still bullish on long bonds in the base case, but the Warsh nomination meaningfully raises the “higher for longer” tail risk. Positioned defensively - favoring intermediate duration over ultra-long for now, but ready to add on any yield spike. To me this is a much better option than being 100% equities right now, 60% of my portfolio is now in long term bonds, and I am paid a monthly dividend for this to play out!

我认为Kevin臆想中的降息+缩表的组合对美国国债绝对是灾难性的，甚至可能埋下金融危机的伏笔。 因为降息+缩表，本质上是同时挤走了美联储+海外的国债买家。 会导致国债收益率飙升，银行抵押物价值流失，引发类似于前几年区域银行破产的危机。

如果未来最可怕不负责任的扩表、去监管，将发生在一个曾经叫嚣让联储把UST卖光得联储主席身上 届时，你们会不会觉得很讽刺？

People are thinking Warsh is hawkish, but why would Mr T spent so much time to pick a hawkish Fed chair? He just needs someone who doesn’t look like a bootlicker to convince the other Fed members to continue cutting rates even when economy is growing strongly

是Trump TACO选Kevin Warsh？我觉得可能是Warsh向领导“对齐”了 可以去听听Rubio Vance以前对Trump言论。政客的立场是随时可以变的，他们骂Trump并不妨碍后来国会起立500次鼓掌 Warsh是市场不喜欢的“鹰派”。但是最大的忠诚不是能把自己的过去都按在地上摩擦吗？驯化了野狗才显得主人牛X

Kevin Warsh极有可能是一个温和鹰派，最起码在所有Trump的候选人最鹰的一个。 他的理想目标是一套降息+缩表的组合，通过抛售国债回收流动性的同时，利用降息回补。 这会导致长端利率上行，短端利率下行，压制高PE股票，和初创公司，但是利好银行，因为银行的基本赚钱逻辑是存短贷长。 所以我们可以关注银行股 $JPM 如果明天真的宣布Kevin Warsh为下一联美联储主席。银行股可能会飙升。

Every single asset is Red today … except $TLT New FED chair announcement coming next week, conviction on this trade is sky high! DETAILS BELOW - now is the time.

Buy $TLT now!

感觉像布林顿森林体系又崩了一次。 https://t.co/1RcSU1oMyb

Truflation at 0.52%. Powell expected to announce resignation today. Rate cuts accelerate this year. Buy $TLT now. Thank me by Xmas 2026.

Equities down across the board in futures/overnight markets. Meanwhile $TLT continues to push higher - Price Target for 2026: $120 to $130. https://t.co/Bqq75mNbLi

I ask myself. Why are we not seeing reflation? Will we see reflation in 2026? Why the heck the gdpnow is predicting a 5.3% gdp growth yoy? Who will buy US debt? Where is the liquidity?

$TLT - Accumulation with Macro Fuel! After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices! Technically: - Price holding above the 2023 lows ($85–87) - Weekly RSI 40–45, no longer in bearish extremes - Downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses. Macro: - Long yields have stopped making higher highs - Historically, when 10Y yields peak, TLT rallies 30–50% over the following cycle Targets - Base case: $115–120 (+30%+) - Bull case: $130–140 (+50%+) - Risk-off scenario: $140+ Hated asset, heavy volume and accumulation, flat price. That’s how bottoms are built, sentiment is turning and this will rip!

Took profits (50% trim on $INTC) and (30% trim on $BHVN) yesterday and rolled into $TLT. I posted my trade alerts in my SUB. https://t.co/IDfxU2Qffk

MUST KNOW: The Real Deal on Investing If You're Not an Expert If you're not great at investing - or don't have the time or money to follow markets closely (like paying for a pro advisor) - here's the straight talk for everyday (retail) investors: 1. Prefer low risk? You'll likely get about 8% yearly returns in USD (e.g., safe index funds like those tracking the S&P 500). Just accept it, be patient, and let steady growth (compounding) work its magic - instead of chasing flashy hype. 2. Love high risk? You're an easy target for scams, Ponzi schemes, and fake "breakthroughs" like quantum tech stocks ( $IONQ, $RGTI). Mixing get-rich-quick dreams with no real knowledge? That's a recipe for total loss. Trust me, I've watched it happen over and over. 3. Got big wealth (high net-worth)? None of this applies- you can hire top advisors to open doors to exclusive deals and bigger potential gains (e.g. venture, private equity) But here's the game-changer: 1. Build real financial smarts (common-sense style), and your options explode! See clearly: You'll spot hidden gems (undervalued stocks like $META or $SRPT) in the chaos, match investments to your actual risk level, and dodge overhyped duds. 2. Wealthy folks focus smart: They don't try everything - they get super good at just 1-2 things they love (like bargain-hunting value stocks or smart sector picks, e.g., long-term bonds like $TLT right now). Then, they let pros (funds or managers) handle spreading out the rest. No wasting energy on too many bets - focused wins big, without the ego trips. 3. Smarts open doors: You'll tap into real networks and group deals for more capital - not just random Reddit or X buzz. That's how wealth really builds and lasts. 4. Patience is key: Don't jump around chasing every trend or feel the urge to trade constantly. Stick to your high-conviction ideas and let them play out over time - real winners need room to grow, not constant tinkering. On your path to wealth, make learning your top priority- numbers are simple tools, not scary monsters, and they're your secret weapon. Kick off with my top 5 classic reads (see below).

$IONQ cratering down nearly 6% today while the broader market is ripping. My longs are pushing higher e.g. $SRPT, $INTC, $BHVN, $CMG, bonds are back up today $TLT, and shorts are printing e.g. $IONQ , $RGTI, $QBTS. Subscribe for my full portfolio and trade alerts. https://t.co/nfNZJkOZsx

TRADE ALERT: I added more $TLT today. https://t.co/VjEAYr9yyi

THE RECESSION IS COMING. $TLT Check out this chart on US 2Y Treasury yields & rate momentum. - Top half of chart: 2Y yield trends down long-term, with pink bars marking recessions. - Bottom half: Yield curve inversions (green arrows) have ALWAYS preceded recessions - no false alarms! Inversions signal recessions, triggering even more Fed rate cuts. Lower rates MEANS higher long-term bond prices! $TLT (20+ Yr Treasuries) surges in downturns! History repeats, now is the time - position accordingly! graph courtesy of: @valeteru

这波JPY bear steepening带动大家一起steepen，利率可能拉个顶出来 但风险资产与债一起下跌，correlation很难维持的。一定程度必然会分化的，要担心股票有大幅调整，择机hedge利率吧

买个swaption彩票吧 真的股市大跌，利率必然向下几十个bps走，而且现在vol也不高 https://t.co/BBhuUXYlSE

Buy $TLT now.

BUY $TLT now - this is the most obvious trade of 2026.