RT @TBU12345678: some views on the market: - this will be the most mean-reverting EPS season I think in recent history. stuff that has gott…

今天不抄底的几个原因 1）我最近预测比较准 2）指数不在周五bottom 3）我们neckline下面的距离还不够 4）散户还没恐慌割肉呢

RT @zerohedge: Nasdaq’s forward PE valuation premium over the S&P 500 is just 4.4%, the smallest since January 2019. As recently as October…

大奇迹周一还可能发生吗？准备周日晚上弄点ES期货.. https://t.co/R3NoPGUppm

RT @commonsenseplay: WE ARE IN THE PERFECT SET UP FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH. 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consu…

果然Trump只是为了做内幕交易。 TACO已经没用了，不知道华尔街的量化指标还盯着不。

RT @commonsenseplay: He never listened - how many millions is @iewney down now. He kept on buying every dip as they continued to bleed - t…

RT @commonsenseplay: Breaking: Goldman raises recession odds to 30%. Ignore the short term noise, the long term effect is recessionary. N…

果然Trump只是为了做内幕交易。 TACO已经没用了，不知道华尔街的量化指标还盯着。

当你觉得到“最痛点”想抄底的时候，记住： 不敢买债，就不要买股 毕竟真把经济搞衰退了，不会定价滞胀，利率必然要下去的 痛可以市场对和平失去信心；或者对战争进程失去耐心；或许疯子不想谈判真的炸了大油轮，等等

抄底是件头疼的事情。但只要在咱们大统领喊单之前买入，都能吃上肉。我大约估计喊单的时间在Apr 1。注意我不是在开愚人节玩笑。喊完了，就可以卖了。至少要把成本全拿回来。因为Apr 6那周要连跌几天。

目前美股有五大流动性枯竭危机： 1. 由于巨大的AI CAPEX投入，原本大公司用于回购和分红的资本空前缩水，甚至因为大规模发债而抽水。 2. 私募资本出现违约风险，投资人正在大规模的赎出这些资本。 3. 空前巨大的IPO密集出现，可能讲进一步抽取市场仅存的流动性。 4. 石油美元因为霍尔木兹海峡危机中断，甚至需要抛售美元资产来维持。 5. 预计CPI的提升以及可能的加息预期，大幅提高了债务成本。

伊朗声称从未发出停战请求。 其实不管伊朗有没有真的发，川普的目标就是控制市场。要是市场以后都不买账了，说不定他会说明天他要去德黑兰负荆请罪了。

有消息指出Elon会让多达30%的IPO股票分发给散户。 我认为这又是Elon粉丝美梦幻灭前的臆想，这绝无可能。 这对Elon没有任何好处，SpaceX的IPO规模空前庞大，其中哪怕10%分给散户，更别说30%，都会让整个盘面上下起伏到恐怖的地步。更别说散户的持仓意愿和机构比都是追涨杀跌，盘口也小得多。 这个IPO一定是严格遵守机构出价承包，散户后续高价接盘的利益分配顺序。稳定成功的IPO资金才是Elon的目的。

RT @commonsenseplay: 6 Beginner Investing Mistakes To Avoid In The Stock Market! 66% of ETF investors started just in the past five year…

啦啦啦啦啦 跌的真好

My two trades from yesterday are both up today while the entire market is bleeding. These stocks can easily bounce 30 to 50% up over the next 6 to 12 months. Here are my entries from yesterday.

$SPY 连续录得9个下跌的周四，我说啥来着，疯狂星期四吧🤪 https://t.co/C8DT6zkkgO

RT @commonsenseplay: WE ARE IN THE PERFECT SET UP FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH. 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consu…

川普说，股市下跌的幅度比他想的小多了。大盘立马开始下跌。 但其实他说的是对的，大盘目前的下跌可以说是非常克制，在上周五之前和目前为止，大盘都没有形成有效的下跌趋势，空头仓位也积累的很少。 大盘现在倾向于形成一个震荡阴跌的情况，不会复制去年三月那种凌厉下跌然后大反弹的情况。

共和党第11次拒绝了国会对TSA的直接拨款。 Trump一直认为TSA大排队对自己选情是有利的，所以拒绝了包括马斯克的资助和国会的单独拨款，强硬要求拨款给TSA就必须同时也增加拨款给ICE等部门。

如果spy这里能bounce起来。那大概率今天就是ranging。然后接近盘尾short squeeze。和上周四一样的剧本。

德意志银行开发了一种指数，可以帮助预测特朗普的下一个TACO。 事实证明，这种方法在特朗普之前的重大政策转变中行之有效。 “压力指数”结合了支持率的月度变化、一年期通胀预期以及标普 500 指数和国债收益率的表现。 数值越高，TACO的可能性就越大。 国债收益率是对特朗普影响最大的因素。

孩儿们 听我的 你们账户都保全了吧 甚至在涨吧

看了一下日经，它盘尾short squeeze了一下，很类似上周四spx的盘尾。所以呢你如果追空，要有心理准备。

周四如果你做反抽的话，一定要快进快出。你不走肯定被埋了。因为周五大概率是个往下走的trend day。

最近真是准到爆

RT @commonsenseplay: WE ARE IN THE PERFECT SET UP FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH. 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consu…

美国经济的成功最重要的原因就是对初创公司和未来产业近乎疯狂的投资和泡沫，有这样的资源和投入，初创公司可以进行任意的扩张和发展，也更容易成功。 https://t.co/psA8pZsV29

Sell The Rip

WE ARE IN THE PERFECT SET UP FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH. 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP - But personal savings are near record lows and - Credit card balances are at record highs - This is not sustainable and when consumers stop spending - earnings fall and markets follow! 2. The labor market has persevered but is showing cracks. - Hiring has slowed significantly and layoffs are increasing - Its not a strong labor market, its a lagging labor market which always happens right before downturns! - Less people employed means less consumer spending Rate cuts won't save us this time! Will Private Credit be that single catalyst? Here is the cycle of false confidence that always happens right before the real crash, and it's happening RIGHT NOW!

$SPY is ripping while quantum continues to bleed. Today is a good day, longs ripping highest shorts going lower. Quantum hype has well and truly died! $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS https://t.co/zipqb1FZaS

明天是周四哦，周四行情近期都很差。 后天是周五哦，周五可能是Trump企图突击登岛。

美国进口商品平均价格全面上涨，高于预期。

Flee 开盘这么大的上涨是不可能的，大盘的波动率收敛注定了HV不会升高了。 https://t.co/gHXfpcUsf7

我还是坚持认为这天会有大事件，对股市是negarive的。

我认为大盘的波动率会逐渐降低到很低很低的水平，这一整周的收盘价格可能都会在650-660之间。 https://t.co/nQt7dzylLP

哎 让我预测hourly，我说美东下午两点半，结果它偏偏盘后拉。。。居心叵测啊。

真可怕,微软 $MSFT 要跌到其解放日时候的价格了。 收盘前平掉了SPY的Put spread，吸入了 $MSFT ，不知是对是错。我们只是在看技术指标，虽然技术指标现在抵不过川普一句嘴炮。 https://t.co/XnuJ7ammM0

今天10:30 am特朗普发言是涨是跌？

RT @ZeeContrarian1: Valuations came down Friday to more reasonable levels, and will likely be even more attractive at today’s open. This is…

散户的市场参与度快速下跌。 目前仅有8%的交易量来自散户，末日期权交易量也疯狂降低。 散户曾经是抄底先锋，在独立日抄底大军中先行一步，让机构充当抬轿子。这次提前撤出可能预示着市场的进一步回撤。

已经连续三个周一半夜大跌白天大涨。 所以大家要在周末准备子弹接期货吗？

今天关于特朗普与伊朗谈判的statement很可能只是缓兵之计，美军将在本周五完成集结，届时可能将登陆作战。 战局规模继续扩大似乎不可避免。很遗憾的是这颗能引起市场暴涨的解放日式的炸弹就这样被用掉了。 今天之后市场的波动会逐渐缩小。

月底这个节点必需狠狠long了。不然踏空这个反弹了。

如果明日 Mar 24周二就向上拉一腿，sell your longs. 不要等周三。

尽管特朗普声称正在和伊朗谈判，但他们这段时间，至少在霍尔木兹海峡布了12个水雷

I think we are entering into a super choppy period overwhelmed by the headlines similar to March/April last year. From my experience of last year, chasing long or short in this environment will be super painful as no clear trends. That's why I chose this "buy when price level hits and hold" strategy and use positioning to control the risk. At the opening today I already cut the postion from around 35-40% to roughly 25% as planed. But I iterated the portfolio a little bit compared to the original post: Now I'm holding MU/SNDK/LITE/TSEM shares and AMD/INTC leap calls(2027 March 0.75 delta) instead of TQQQ. Also holding CVX/VG 3months calls for hedging purpose.

闲聊历史： 大英帝国纵横百年，把文明种子撒遍全球。靠的不是同情与理想，而是务实与秩序 很不幸，确保秩序的是刀剑，而不是嘴；务实要既能忍痛，又知进退、平衡 一战爆发本质恰恰是英国，他不能容忍德国海军挑战。1914年德国其实已有退缩迹象的，无奈英国选择既然要打，不如早打 1853年英国也曾不惜联合宿敌法国挑起对俄战争。面对潜在秩序挑战者，就该选一个最佳时机预先下手 反战？怕死人？一战中率先发起human wave的是英法 没有那么多泛滥“同情心”，本国利益永远排在最前面。二战丘吉尔因优先保障英国，导致印度印政策饿死300万人。英国统治下印度GDP从全球20%降低到独立时4%。他们很清楚，制造业是禁止在殖民地的。有英国媒体骂吗？ 可能二战之后大家接受了太多美好的口号，美国冷战后又特别信心爆棚。真的因为跟某些大国签个协议就世界大同了？ 你们可能觉得我是法西斯极右分子？我觉得人类的基因还是10000年前那个洞穴人。那个黑夜里因为恐惧对方、或为了抢一块腐肉而一枪戳死对方的洞穴人。把自己想成上帝只会被别人戳死

别比了，美国的hotel可能是全球性价比最低的。 200刀有床睡就满足了。

我就知道必然有大反弹，只是居然直接在盘前就大反弹。 看来盘前的大跌对特朗普构成了太大的压力。 大反弹是有盘面结构的原因的，只要Trump有促使雪崩的信息输入就会触发。 很可惜没有抓到，但是如果我在周五尾盘吸入，昨天夜盘应该压力也挺大的。 总而言之，目前周一周二涨，周四周五跌的基本规律还没打破。

“WITCH” will continue 你懂了没，接着逗你玩 如果这点痛都受不了要退，只会亲者痛仇者快。让其他大国看轻，让他们敢冒险拿捏美国破坏世界秩序 https://t.co/qPNIkCidvP

我操我的预测又准了 周五或者周日globex。记住了我这次很严谨的说是周日globex。而不是周一夜盘。

这么说话的是特朗普吗？该表述出现了严重的TACO，把自己的行为称为hostilities，表现出双方似乎一直在和谈，并且战争即将很快结束。 市场能瞬间出现这样的近乎2%以上的反弹，显示出市场仍然相信解放日式的TACO是存在的。 https://t.co/q0lY8pKYjc

Trump推迟对伊朗基础设施轰炸5天，TACO以后，大盘飙升，再次上演周一反转。

我为啥不怎么写了，分析来分析去有意义吗？ Trump一句话就让你爆仓，把你逼空 静静拿个板凳看你演

讲讲熊市的走法，一般是先击破50周均线，然后才会有周线反弹。反弹可以超过颈线，大反弹可以回测10周或者20周均线。所以一般来说在击破spx 50周均线之前，做多指数大概率要扛单。

自从美联储建立，美元的购买力减少了96% 信用货币本身是自然贬值的，资产名义价值是自然增长的 https://t.co/kFqH6KEKZJ

各位下午好☺️ 期货已经开盘啦🌚 周五盘后的全部涨幅果然已经全部回吐，并且小幅下跌了0.6%，重新回到6500点以下。 令人担心的是 VIX开盘很高。这可能预示着进一步下跌的可能。 https://t.co/SlpHfODIKk

鲍威尔：“如果你看一下核心通胀率，大约是3%。其中很大一部分，大约一半到四分之三，实际上是关税造成的。”

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg d…

伊朗最大的电厂供应这着伊朗2.9%的电力，而以色列最大的电厂则供应着20%。 而且伊朗还有很多地下电力设施和原油天然气直接发电。更别说周围国家都是伊朗的人质。美国的拦截导弹保护自己的军事基地都不够，一旦扩散到大量民用目标，损失将难以计算。 所以我觉得攻击伊朗电力设施又是一步差旗，当然上一步占领哈尔克岛没走，可见白宫里面还是有人给他条陈利弊。

The last thing we need is Iraq 2.0. A ground war with Iran wouldn’t just cost lives, it would hit your wallet hard. - Gas prices surge. - Inflation spikes. - Markets drop. Your 401(k)? Crushed. https://t.co/T5Tfjm86kl

This is going to be either really good for stocks and bonds .... or really really bad! $spy $tlt https://t.co/Oz2EdVx1Mh

特朗普执政一年，创造了18.5万就业岗位。创下自2003年以来，不发生经济危机的年份里最惨淡的记录。 而在拜登执政的最后一年，创造了220万就业岗位。

在川普发布进一步加剧战局的宣告以后，周五盘后的涨幅全部消失，由涨转跌。 https://t.co/a7fMOV3T4h

虽然大家在等待解放日.. 曾记得特朗普刚宣布关税的时候，市场是暴涨的，然后大家看清以后，市场直接暴跌了.. 待会周一等来川普继续加剧战局的宣告…

Buying pre-revenue companies is the same as gambling. You're not buying a business, because they don't make any money - you're just hoping and betting on a future prediction. In most cases, pre-revenue companies with big retail followings never live up to the promise and eventually go bankrupt. I would argue you are better off putting your money on red at the roulette table - you've a 47.4% chance of doubling your money.

为什么会亏？早把空单关了。我很早预测了周五或者周日globex是低点。我是傻逼吗，不知道把空单全关了。

把自己也钉一下耻辱柱，居然没在spx 6480 place long orders！！

来 把那几个vol house钉在耻辱柱上。三月13出来喊底，一帮傻逼。

霍尔木兹海峡的封锁需要立刻结束。其实哪怕现在立刻结束，市场都需要几个月的时间来完全恢复石油的供给。防止加息周期预期被坐实。 降息周期和加息周期是完全不一样的东西。一旦真的进入加息周期，市场的下跌将非常恐怖，例如上次加息周期， $TSLA 从400跌到了80。

很简单道理，被公安诱供会不会“招” 坦白从宽、老底坐穿的道理谁不懂。公安唱白脸会有人信吗？但哪个进去的不着了道？ 互信是实力对等才能说的，一方碾压还掌握个人生死。只有做选择题，坏还是更坏 现在最大风险恰恰是美国想息事宁人，遗祸万年。你觉得民主党左派上台政治正确情况下还会动武吗？

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg d…

川普就是在遛狗。 但是呢，不重要。重要的是市场怎么反应，以及市场对这些叙事的反应强度。 我的观点是市场的短线反弹是必然的，就在周一或者周二，而且这个反弹会很剧烈。 但是完全反转的底部可能还没到。

Trump今天TACO的时间并不好。 这两天可以发生很多事情，以及周末的缓冲和吸收效应会很强。

Trump显示出TACO迹象，油价大跌，大盘反弹。

从各种迹象表明似乎周一会大反弹。

你们看一下，我三月八日宣布入熊。入熊了怎么做呢？问问chatgpt和qwen吧。

RT @commonsenseplay: It happens slowly… then all at once. Just like the 2008 stock market crash. History doesn’t repeat exactly - but it…

一旦周一大盘继续跌，导致 RSI低于30，我就反手做多等大反弹。 目前最多看到640-645之间会有短线反弹。 https://t.co/AeYO10MVCW

妈的 我如果昨天带了空单 要是没在short squeeze顶上买入，一定会被骂死。

整个x昨天都在抄底，只有我一个人在那里逢高把空接回来。空的操作我不带。因为像昨天那种尾盘被squeeze，就会被黑粉白粉骂！

Oh yeah 我太准了。不过Sunday globex比周五低的概率还挺大。所以取消做多计划。

“Boots on the ground” is inevitable, I predicted it long time ago. I think stock market will bounce from there once the Kharg island is successfully occupied.

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg d…

$SRPT +3.1% $DND.TO +6.2% There will always be opportunities in single stocks. While the broader market continues its decline - $SPY down another -0.8%, and bonds continue sell off on rising yields from oil shock.

? 难道川普要两面战场都送掉吗？ Krasnov又要发力了吗？

目前市场认为在今年十月份，美联储有50%的概率会加息。这样的反转，会完全颠覆资本市场的交易节奏和逻辑。

多位美联储成员曾希望继续降息，但是由于油价的上涨，他们目前的态度都发生了转变。

一架美国F35疑似真的被伊朗火力击中而迫降。 这可能是F35第一次在战争中被火力击中。

Put/call ratio创纪录，这是一种对冲而不是做空。这反而导致市场处于一种中性或者半死不活的状态。因为所有的人都在Hedge而不是卖股票，做市商只好横盘到把这些premium都给收割了。

纽约在每个流浪汉身上花的钱，超过了纽约中位数收入。 这些钱创造了更多慈善机构和私人合同公司的就业😅 往好的地方想

$SPY 距离最高点下跌了5.5% $QQQ 下跌了6.8% $DIA 下跌了8.6% 这样的下跌幅度以及这样的IV，超级大反弹基本是不可能的。不过今天SPX确实是一口气从6571杀到了6636，日内期权10分钟翻了50倍。 https://t.co/vNe6yHAZZL

BREAKING: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE WHO OWNS STOCKS. Legendary Investor Howard Marks appearing yesterday on Bloomberg discussed Retail being pushed to invest in Private Credit, Stock Market Cycles and "Cockroaches in the Coal Mine". "It's only during tough economic times that we learn who lent money stupidly!" If you can spare 5 mins today watch this video! Like and follow if you enjoy this content - appreciate it!

海湾国家正在抛售他们的黄金、美债和股票来救急😭 收入一断，只能卖资产了。

那下一任美联储主席是谁？🤯 现在川普似乎不一定会让Warsh当美联储主席了。 他需要找一个真正的纯鸽派！美国急需降息。

lol and the $SPY is only down 3%. Things will get a lot worse before they get better.

RT @commonsenseplay: WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy…

$TLT rallying while the S&P continues to drop. I'm accumulating on every drop on $TLT. This is a 12 month play - don't get shaken out by short term noise. If you have conviction in a thesis stick with it. https://t.co/JzKRFQfyrY

$SPY 有鸭气🦆

RT @ShanghaoJin: 基本面、AI行业本来都没有任何问题，打下仗也无所谓，风险是持续 控制了领空、海峡，但挡不住对面派舢板放水雷袭扰、放无人机乱炸 如果油价长期每涨10%，对应PCE升0.2，core PCE 0.04，且GDP降低0.1 即使如此，我也不希望…

打牌一直出AKQJ，等对面把最后Joker引出来。一炸～就可以为所欲为了 这很显然是联军目前明确战术，等看清对方剩余真实情况再决定要不要采取决定性行动 但有没有可能：伊朗已经连joker也没了，现在放的哪些drone已经是压舱底了。就剩那张10了

Mar 25开始有一个极其凶险的窗口。所以你如果做多应该见好就收。弹一天跑掉最安全。而不是非要等到Mar 25再卖。

每一次油价上涨超过50%都引起了经济衰退。

由于各个大公司回购的断崖式下跌，美股变成了一个没有资金回哺的市场。

OK 一切符合预测 那就等着再跌100-200点。6515啊，6480啥的。

Breaking: FED FOMC 3/18/26: Hawkish Hold #2 Fed holds rates steady for the 2nd straight meeting (11-1 vote). Dot plot: just 1 cut in 2026 and 1 in 2027. 2026 PCE inflation forecast hiked to 2.7%. Middle East developments: “uncertain”. Miran dissented for a cut. https://t.co/sRcdqFlAto

$SPY down -0.62% Meanwhile my three high conviction plays: $SRPT +2% $DND.TO +1.1% $TLT +0.1%

点阵图和预期一模一样。 维持利率不变。 鲍威尔的发言可能要权衡通胀以及就业。 目前来说就业数据由于造假的因素，总是隔一段时间就下修，但是目前的数据是看上去还行，通胀略抬头，综合起来，我认为鲍威尔会是偏鹰派的发言。

目前股市一般是周一周二比较好 周三不固定 周四周五比较差

鲍威尔11:30 PST的Good morning会让大盘上涨还是下跌

来自全球多达50个国家的人在申请B签证的时候被要求收取1.5万美元的押金，不知道这些国家里面是否包含中国。 那以后到美国的学术会议、商业活动和交流活动都会变得困难重重啊。

二月份PPI已经显著高于预期。这意味着通胀正在回归。

基本面、AI行业本来都没有任何问题，打下仗也无所谓，风险是持续 控制了领空、海峡，但挡不住对面派舢板放水雷袭扰、放无人机乱炸 如果油价长期每涨10%，对应PCE升0.2，core PCE 0.04，且GDP降低0.1 即使如此，我也不希望和平。无论代价都得摧毁这神棍，让其他躲在西方规则下破坏规则的独裁者掂量下

特朗普声称不怕越南式的对伊朗入侵，但是这是越南和伊朗的大小对比，并且美国目前只有越南战争时不到一半的现役军人。 https://t.co/ikOpx4WYJ7

CTA近期正在不断抛售全球股票，其中美股抛售最厉害。

美国陷入经济危机的概率跃升至2020年以来最高，超过去年4月。

明天周三2:30pm EST (11:30 AM PST) 鲍威尔将举行FOMC, 预计降息概率为0，并有偏鹰派发言。

投资者正在大量的囤积现金。 有趣的是大盘岿然不动，究竟是谁支撑起了强力的买盘。

? 所以习普会取消了？

美国国家反恐中心主任辞职了，他无法继续支持伊朗战争，因为他所有的情报和证据都说明伊朗对美国几年甚至更久的时间里都不会有任何威胁。 正如大家说的那样，特朗普发动这场战争的原因并非出自事实和美国利益，而是因为以色列的游说以及个人冲动。

伊朗摧毁了一艘美国阿联酋联运的货轮。

我说的那些可能发生的事件都不重要。只有一件事重要，我说本周低点抄的多仓要在Mar 25止盈。你最好跟着做。

另外就是Mar 20很重要，可能是个转折点，如果Mar 18-19就跌出放大量的恐慌盘，那可能是可以提前开始建仓的。

现在这个阶段做多一定不要太贪。很可能就是弹到下降通道上沿就下来了。也就是说一般也就两天。局势大约四月十日会有一个大的扭转（开始谈判），但四月20日川总会觉着谈的不好而继续轰炸，直到五月第二周才会有真正的peace deal达成。其实我这个预测已经算速度很快的了。

川普需要这次与中国的会面，大豆的出口对本次中期选举影响巨大。 赶紧把GPU的出口放出来。

连日本都拒绝派军舰过来，昔日大旗一举，从者如云。 这是美国领导力衰落的表现，没有一个盟友响应号召。 我觉得高市推迟前往美国，也是在暗搓搓反对美国攻击伊朗并且调走日本和韩国的驻防。

RT @commonsenseplay: WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy…

RT @ShanghaoJin: 这段行情没有结束也接近尾声了，CTA flat了 没有结束，因为book liquidity还非常差，gamma 也没恢复。最理想的是再砸一把，把他们全部扭成空头，然后出一个“停战消息”直接逼空

POLL CLOSED - 722 votes in! Here’s where my followers are putting their net new monthly contributions: Equities - 31.2% Gold/Silver/Metals - 26.5% Bonds - 23.7% Oil/Commodities - 18.7% Main takeaway: - Equities squeaked out the win, but nearly 70% went to gold, bonds & commodities combined. This shows a clear defensive and diversified mindset even in a running bull market - lots of hedging going on! Important context: My followers are generally more well-informed & experienced retail investors, so this cautious mix probably doesn’t represent the broader public (who I suspect are still close to 100% equities right now). Comments also noted: Cash, Treasuries, Bitcoin & “mattress money” dominated the replies.

RT @DeItaone: US–CHINA TRADE TALKS IN PARIS SHOW PROGRESS U.S. and Chinese officials held “candid and constructive” talks in Paris, agreei…

EASY! Buy low-cost index funds (especially S&P 500 trackers) and hold for LIFE. Dollar-cost average: Put 10-30% of your paycheck in automatically. Add more when you can. Check balances every 6 months... or better yet, ignore for a decade+. Historical S&P 500 total returns (with dividends reinvested) average ~10% annually long-term (around 10-11% in many multi-decade periods). That means your money doubles roughly every 7-8 years via compounding (Rule of 72: 72 ÷ 10 ≈ 7.2 years). Beat 99% of traders by doing NOTHING fancy. Top ETFs to buy & hold forever (all ultra-low fees): $VOO: Pure S&P 500 (top U.S. companies) $SPY: Most liquid S&P 500 tracker (since '93) $VTI: Total U.S. market (large + mid + small) $VV: Broad large-caps $IWM: Small-caps (Russell 2000) for extra growth kick $VGT: Tech sector (Apple, Nvidia, etc.) $QQQ: Nasdaq-100 (tech-heavy growth) You're welcome.

原油市场目前是对冲基金对面最大的做多仓位。但是他们又同时建立了最大的美股做空仓位。 那如果油价回落，股票大涨，那他们不就倒闭了。他们在对冲什么？

这段行情没有结束也接近尾声了，CTA flat了 没有结束，因为book liquidity还非常差，gamma 也没恢复。最理想的是再砸一把，把他们全部扭成空头，然后出一个“停战消息”直接逼空

When Netanyahu goes missing, Putin will charge the US, so we will be fine. https://t.co/SCVfp8arky

上次发布该信息正好是4/7的解放日。能够帮助大盘突破6个月的盘整重新上涨吗？🤤

对冲基金在上周四建立了有史以来第二大的空仓。

趁美军空虚，金正恩往日本海发射了一颗导弹。 主要其实是回应日本近期部署了涵盖中国、朝鲜范围内1000公里远程导弹系统。 https://t.co/SZlr2zACgH

我猜测离经济危机爆发，还有6个月。

不知不觉大盘横盘了6个月.. M7开年到现在没有任何organic growth.. https://t.co/txH9pgZALp

这周美股面临systematic卖压，走的已经是异常强劲了 散户抄底热情、对GTC展望真是非常强啊 当下SP6646，看看收盘能不能再健康回调一些。这些卖盘今天不丢出来，下周也要卖。不如砸快点

虽然大家都以为特朗普经济做得很好，实际上下修了数据以后，美国2025年GDP仅增长了2.2%，近5年最慢，也就是低于拜登时期任何一年。希望可以低开高走。

目前民主党控制众议院和参议院的概率已经升至50%以上。 弹劾特朗普已经指日可待了吗😛

We are doomed.. https://t.co/b0W5lEwN6n

美国第四季度GDP增长仅为0.7%，低于预期的1.4%。 政府停摆可能是影响因素。

RT @commonsenseplay: One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an in…

标普考虑修改规则，使得SpaceX上市以后可以快速加入标普500 这样岂不是priced in的东西越来越多。

川普的10万美元H1B申请费改革反而使得USCIS在这一项的收入剧减了1950万美元。 这些收入应该原先都来自印度，少些印度人也是不错。这可能是我支持川普的第二项政策，但我觉得川普还做得不够，川普应该要求在海外增加员工公司不得裁减美国的员工。

Nick已经回复特朗普，下周降息的概率为 0

特朗普再次公开要求鲍威尔直接立刻马上降息！ 这是少数一两件我比较同意的事情。

Breaking: Elon Musk says he’s “comfortable” predicting the "economy will 10× over the next 10 years" - “unless there is WW3.” What does that mean for investors? If the global economy truly expands that fast, corporate earnings and equities likely follow. Historically, economic growth and stock markets move together over long periods. For many investors, that raises a simple question If the whole economy is growing… is the best strategy just owning the market? Broad index funds tracking the S&P 500 (like $SPY or $VOO) automatically capture the companies driving that growth. Big takeaway: If the economy compounds… equities usually do too. Maybe the simple path (index investing) is the winner in the end!

$SPY down -1.13% while $TLT goes green, Bonds continue to outperform equities in 2026, this trend will only accelerate over the next 12 months. https://t.co/o0XwY9mpkR

习川会临近，特朗普到现在也不知道自己要干嘛，重要公司的CEO们也没收到邀请。 原本来说领导人见面就是走一下形式，签签字，现在中国完全懵逼，不知道川普葫芦里究竟卖的什么药，或许就没有药，只是组织完全混乱，不知道要干什么。

2008年这一现象出现以后，过了6个月，直到雷曼兄弟破产，股市才开始暴跌。 所以我们得等一个引爆点，可能是blue owl🤔 但他有点太小了 https://t.co/e8MuUFDOwv

对冲基金的做空仓位创2022年以来新高，可是股市纹丝不动啊。卖家还有谁？等他们平仓了不就要飙升了。

我觉得大盘还是稳健的，前段时间已经是机构做空最狠的时候了，还是没有空下来。现在除非出现大的黑天鹅，否则不容易真的趋势性大跌。 https://t.co/v8KSJzjydp

明天会有2月CPI公布，我根据一些指标和门类的计算，认为这个数字依然低于预期，大约为2.3-2.4% ，略低于目前公开预计的2.5%。 我这个测算每次都很准，所以我认为私底下，大部分金融机构可能也很清楚。不会有特别大的意外。 原油价格的影响，要到3月的数据才会反映出来。 https://t.co/uEJKsW1i4x

Can’t predict how market will react tomorrow.

shit cleveland fed的inflation nowcasting居然update了数字。发现cpi和core cpi均inline。怪不得夜盘在涨…. https://t.co/rwxbi92CRp

Save America Act是不可能通过的，因为这影响力民主党的票仓。除非参议员共和党大胜。

This is why the West can’t build infrastructure anymore. It took 79,187 pages of planning documents to reopen a 3.3-mile railway in the United Kingdom! Printed out: 14.6 miles of paperwork - 4.5× longer than the railway itself. Approval process: 16 years! Not the tech or capital but Pure bureaucracy! The U.S. is no better - major projects routinely trapped in 10+ years of environmental reviews and permitting before a shovel even hits the ground. When it takes decades to build railways, power plants, or pipelines: - Costs explode - Productivity stagnates - Housing shortages worsen - Energy supply tightens This has an obvious knock on effect to markets, and exacerbates the housing crises and oil spikes. Countries that finally fix permitting will unleash a massive productivity boom. If the US can solve this, especially with AI. I am bullish long-term on: - Infrastructure - Power generation - Construction - Materials (maybe even nuclear, just not OKLO at its current valuation). https://t.co/4WawBpg6M6

每次都在谈判过程中被炸。 上次炸了军官领袖，这次连最高领袖都炸了。 把信用都给炸没了，谈判的大门可能已经关闭了。

OK spx崩了 我又救了你们的intc

Great recovery, just added some kweb exposure for Xi-Trump meeting, and patiently for the 2nd leg down of SPX to add more. If there isn’t any then will just sitting on the cash without chasing the pump. https://t.co/hqVWvFgMKv

It happens slowly… then all at once. Just like the 2008 stock market crash. History doesn’t repeat exactly - but it definitely rhymes. https://t.co/Aij0xlRaPY

我们还是要重申这一条，白天的时候最后能无脑FOMO进去的，半夜跌到最低割肉的，你不亏钱谁亏。 我们需要保持情绪稳定，关注消息面的变化。总体来说美股的韧性还是很强。 $TSM 月报还没有出，胜负犹未可知。

只要霍尔木兹海峡能保持开放，美国就赢了。 美国没有兴趣伤人一千自损八百，美国的目标只有一个，那就是一直赢，不能输一点。

$SPY down -1.2% while $TLT goes green. https://t.co/In2UJfAij9

Oil doubling is a quick inflationary shock, but its second-order effect is deeply deflationary - it kills demand for everything else. Couple that with AI being deflationary and accelerating the deterioration of the jobs market. Once the dust settles, $TLT. People are hating on $TLT right now even with the current overnight drop, but it’s significantly outperforming the $SPY YTD (+0.35% vs -3.79%). And that doesn’t even include the 4.4% yield from its monthly dividends. I’ll keep accumulating at these prices and reinvesting monthly dividends.

今年资本市场还要 IPO 4万亿美元给几家无法盈利的公司。这些公司在2030年之前都不可能回购或者分红来回补资本市场，他们将带走几千亿美元的流动性。

油价大涨18%，大盘下跌了1.5% https://t.co/yYMpHMCAmF

hope we can see a real capitulation event on Monday, please!

牛肉价格在过去五年上涨超过标普500。 名副其实的牛市了 不过我感觉主要是美国的牛肉上涨很凶，中国的牛肉好像并没有涨太多 https://t.co/eSqJSweEjN

目前2026年美国进入经济危机的概率上升到了27% 危机爆发点主要集中在私募资本流动性，个人信贷，AI融资泡沫以及AI裁员潮。 但是目前工业生产以及服务依然处于景气的阶段。

伦敦保险承销商将很快恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行保险。 我们需要密切观察霍尔木兹海峡的通航情况，如果有复苏的迹象，那将对股市有极大提振。

美国信用卡债务违约风险已经达到极高风险水平，这样的比例甚至是经济衰退的前兆。石油危机如果切实带来长时间的高通胀，就会进一步抑制消费，美国经济陷入危机的可能性就会很大。 我认为川普的第一要务必须是打通霍尔木兹海峡，

本次伊朗战争输家和赢家大排名及理由： 1. 伊朗：伊朗输得最彻底，政权受到破坏，经济陷入严重危机，被疯狂轰炸。虽然有一线机会转化为民主国家，但是这样的神权国家是天生的民主基因不良，更可能的情况还是回到原点。 2.波斯湾周边的国家，阿联酋、科威特和沙特等：霍尔木兹海峡封锁，机场等基础设施遭到轰炸破坏，资金外逃，经济陷入全面危机。 3.日本、韩国、欧洲诸国：霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，能源价格飙升，推动成本升高；战略上被美国抛弃，大量军备物资被调往中东，防备进入中空期。 4.印度：被允许从俄罗斯进口相对廉价的能源，但是整体能源的价格依然巨大飙升。 从这里开始是赢家： 5.美国：美国的能源出口和军工产业虽然能从中受益，但是会带来更高通胀以及更高赤字的风险，同时美国在中东和欧洲的盟友体系出现破坏。 https://t.co/nlytWXSAjD：中国虽然进口能源价格上会飙升，但是中国一直有俄罗斯的能源作缓冲，而且能源价格的飙升会推动中国新能源汽车、太阳能等产业出口飙升；战略上美国重返亚太的节奏再次被打断，亚太进入防务真空。通胀的持续飙升可能迫使美国在贸易上向中国让步。 7. 以色列：以色列虽然受了少量排炮击，但是成功借力美国摧毁了长期以来的对手伊朗，虽然短期内受到一些干扰，但是长远来说，以色列可能会获得长久的和平。 8.俄罗斯：伊朗战争开打以后，俄罗斯的制裁被放松，得以以更高的油价回血；乌克兰的军事援助也被减少甚至需要分出资源帮助美国。中国可能在战略上会与其绑得更紧。 9.其他地区纯粹石油出口国，例如挪威等：油价直接大飙升，反正就是卖油的，直接赚得盆满钵满。赢麻。

RT @commonsenseplay: One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an in…

下周肯定是🩸洗。

RT @ShanghaoJin: @Hank_xbt 但是就怕贼惦记，要么第一次都不要出手，已经出手需要了结 国家之间政治本来就不是请客吃饭，不需要讲那么多“正义”的 英国打缅甸，中国灭西藏讲过道理吗？

关于特朗普伊朗战争消息面的解读，我们要明确以下事实： 1. 石油价格上涨对美国经济是有害的，所以石油价格上涨大部分股票都会下跌。 2.美国没有足够的战略储备或者填补霍尔木兹海峡阻断的原油空缺的办法，包括委内瑞拉或者美国自身页岩油增产都不行。唯一能让石油价格回落的办法目前只有霍尔木兹海峡重新通行。 3.由于伊朗政权没有倒台，目前美国只有两个选择，其一就是和伊朗和谈，其二就是进入伊朗的十万大山清剿那些时不时放出无人机或者导弹的伊朗军队。 第一种方案见效最快，第二种方案时间长而且困难。所以当特朗普倾向于第二种方案的时候，由上述逻辑，我们会看到市场下跌；当倾向于第一种的时候，市场就会反弹。 对特朗普来说最好的情况就是目前政府倒台，亲美政府上台。但是这件事情很难说，因为伊朗太大了，伊朗可能是美国自二战以来入侵的领土最大人口最多的国家，在轰炸最猛烈的第一个星期，也就炸死了不到一千人，很多百姓甚至对国家高层已经发生很大变化没什么感受。而且伊朗其实不是一个独裁国家，类似于萨达姆倒台，下面的人就作鸟兽散，他其实是一个宗教独裁，独裁这个国家的是一大群人，叫做所谓的“集体领导”。

VIX目前已经比去年解放日还高。期权是不可能继续做的了。 四月回来抄底！

石油价格暴涨对美国经济的破坏性，其核心逻辑并不在于贸易账面上的“进出口”得失，而在于实体经济底层的“成本与消耗”。 作为全球第一大石油消费国，原油是贯穿美国全产业链的底层基础成本。面对飙升的油价，美国经济会陷入两难：如果企业无法将成本完全转嫁（终端商品不涨价），其利润空间将被严重压缩；如果企业成功转嫁成本（推高通胀），民众的实际购买力和消费意愿就会大幅下滑。无论哪种路径，都会对占美国GDP近70%的消费驱动型经济造成重创。 面对居高不下的油价，特朗普政府面临着极其棘手的战略抉择。从宏观经济的健康角度来看，限制甚至禁止石油出口以平抑国内油价是一个选项。否则，若任由逐利的资本过度向高利润的能源出口端集中，美国经济结构将面临退化为“能源型经济”的风险——这对极其依赖科技、金融和高端制造业的美国而言，无异于饮鸩止渴。

RT @commonsenseplay: One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an in…

$VRT 加入了 标普500 https://t.co/TG4l47UwaA

I’m seeing more upside tail risk than downside tail risk today. The price action also suggests that, there are many other people holding the same thoughts. Next week we should have a clearer picture.

$TLT goes green while the $SPY is down -1.2%. Don't get shaken out by a short term oil spike. 2026 will be the year of the Bond. https://t.co/vOVAL4uVJT

People are gossiping that $VRT will join S&P 500

就业市场持续疲软，降息预期其实会增强。

2月份数据其实没有看上去那么差，中间要调整季节因素和医疗工会罢工（同理，上个月NFP也没看上去那么好） 接下去相当一段时间，宏观基本面会是低通胀、良性增长、日益严峻的就业。矛盾吗？ https://t.co/aMXKSNsHCH

当我们看到这些Bearish的仓位时，他们已经发挥了价格上的作用。一个体现就是UvXY的飙升，可是这样的飙升没有导致SPY的大跌，恰恰说明这个方向并非向下，他是一个更复杂的情况。

One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)

只要裁员通知出来，就会大涨。

The $SPY getting obliterated down over -1.1%. Yet Element Fleet Management goes higher - I bought big yesterday! ( CAN $EFN.TO / US $ELEEF ). See below for why! https://t.co/cduhwxncz3

这就很挑衅了，说的好像什么东西都是美国赏赐的。只是印度的国际条件好像一直比中国好一些。

现在必然赚钱的策略，晚上买白天卖。 晚上伊朗砸盘，白天川普拉盘。 这是真的

一切继续向预测的方向发展。周五正负一天为高点，下周有低点，大概率在Mar 11-12。

这个估计可能相对合理，虽然大家看起来那个海峡窄窄的，但是其实把世界上所有军舰头尾连起来都填不满。

一不小心又花了500亿美元在以色列身上。超过其全年军费了。 美国人花在保护以色列的钱比以色列花在保护自己的钱还多。

今年以来，周四一般都是表现最差的一天。

RT @DeItaone: CITADEL’S RUBNER TURNS BULLISH, SEES MARCH STOCK BOUNCE Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner reversed his bearish call, citing w…

Before pressing the buy button for US stocks, I think we are facing a similarly hard choice to the one we faced last year after Liberation Day: “Do you still believe in Donald Trump?” If no conviction on either side of the answer, we should just wait, accepting the trade-off of buying at a higher price later but much lower risk.

RT @commonsenseplay: THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don't have. - Consumer spendin…

In the opening, VVIX was over 125 and DVOL over 90 — perfect capitulation. However, the market closed with VVIX at 116 and DVOL at 76.5, so the capitulation didn’t last long. I don’t like this price action: buyers rushed in too early and consumed too much buying liquidity.

美国因为西班牙不给其使用领土空袭伊朗而禁止贸易是又一突破底线的行为，这可能严重影响美国未来对其他军事基地的使用和续约。

$TLT goes green - hope you listened. I bought more yesterday on the dip. Meanwhile equities continue to bleed red. 2026 is the year of the bond. https://t.co/cV0fzGwdZf

The stock market’s biggest lie: BLACK SWANS ARE BASICALLY WHITE SWANS! Here’s how often these "black swan" events actually occur" and the impact on the stock market! Market impact of “black swan” events: 1. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis - S&P 500: -19% peak-to-trough - Global sell off 2. 1998 LTCM collapse - S&P 500: -19% in 6 weeks - Fed emergency bailout 3. 2000 Dot-com bust - Nasdaq: -78% - S&P 500: -49% - Took 7 years to recover 4. 2008 Global Financial Crisis - S&P 500: -57% - Worst drawdown since the 1930s 5. 2010 Flash Crash - Dow: -9% in minutes - Liquidity vanished instantly 6. 2011 Eurozone crisis - S&P 500: -21% - U.S. credit rating downgraded 7. 2015 China devaluation shock - S&P 500: -12% in days - Volatility spike globally 8. 2018 Volmageddon - S&P 500: -20% in ~3 months - Short-vol trades wiped out 9. 2020 COVID crash - S&P 500: -34% in 23 trading days - Fastest crash in history 10. 2022 rate-hike shock - S&P 500: -25% - Nasdaq: -35% - Bonds AND stocks down together 11. 2023 regional bank failures - Financials: -20–40% - Deposits and confidence evaporated 12. 2026 - IRAN WAR - TBC.... These aren't “once in a lifetime.” events more like once every few years. If your portfolio can’t survive drawdowns, returns don’t matter. Never go all in on one stock! Common Sense Investing!

得道多助，失道寡助。天天加关税，人家当然不帮忙了。

川普会TACO吗？我猜不会，这是战争不是国内的政策，而且市场还在priced in可能的TACO。 这绝无可能，承认战争失败，意味着川普就失败了。而且会极大打击战争的士气，在战略和技术层面都是不可接受的。 十日战争为什么可以快速结束，因为双方不是真的在打仗。真的打仗会提前打电话告诉你我要炸哪里吗？ 美国和以色列一次又一次的挑战伊朗的底线，最终的结果就是触发了真正的战争。真正的战争很难停止，因为赢得战争的人必然是最强硬的那个人。能够重新统一伊朗内部的也一定是非常强硬的人。

I hope $SPX can close at around 6720 and DVOL > 90% today. Then it’s a bulls capitulation event and I can buy the dip

本以为只到spy673小跌，现在来看es6600-6500是有可能要去了。

今天很难反弹，市场的流动性枯竭了，而且 $UVXY 超高，动能强劲。

全球市场出现大暴跌。 我认为伊朗战争的持续时间会比预期更长，更大的问题是，其可能导致油气生产后运输基础设施的严重破坏，这些是长久的影响。 我认为必须要避免做多以及有一定的对冲。美元的快速飙升其实是严重的避险信号，大家正在疯狂的抛售资产囤积现金。

Great analysis but I’m hesitant to buy immediately, need sometime for the technical analysis.

美国占欠款95%并不是联合国95%的钱来自美国，而是美国故意拖着不给钱。美国仅占总会费的22%，但是GDP占世界27%。最重要的是由于总部位于纽约，大部分会费最终都变成了美国的GDP，因为要按照纽约的标准雇佣外交以及服务人员。人均高达20万美元，这才是联合国要破产的原因。 搬去中国可能是联合国能平衡收支的唯一选项。

这不是不战而屈人之兵了吗？ 中国天天给韩国搞制裁，两国关系甚至因此弄僵的萨德系统，中国不费一兵一卒就移除了。 现在越来越怀疑Trump可能是中国的间谍。

光是防御伊朗，在战前就几乎搬空美国以外的所有防空系统。在中国附近只剩下一个萨德。 但是美国声称其最大的敌人是中国！

伊朗轰炸沙特阿拉伯利雅得领事馆，美国绝对没想到领导人一换伊朗攻击已经没有下限了。潘多拉魔盒打开，川普小妙招频出，现在完全和疯子在作战。

For spy long entry, we need to be patient as well. Another small leg down is written in the chart.

By the way we are going down intraday most likely, so wait for your entry.

如果交易所被炸了，是不是还能升更多☺️

RT @commonsenseplay: WHY YOU’RE GOING TO LOSE MONEY ON STOCKS THIS DECADE! Legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy…

$SPY is green … huh ???

也没有多少Dip，早盘反弹还是比较凶的。

现在打仗、指数position差、机构都在逃跑，全都是做空的理由 然而明年这个时候，你会说当时NV可是低于180，我实在没敢买 有一天，当大家认识到哪怕capex增速下降，NV 27年业绩也没啥影响的时候。他们会疯掉

As usual, CME breaks again.

各位好☺️ 大盘全面下跌1%左右，主要是VIX实在升太多了。 https://t.co/XDG5dERkSE

BREAKING: The U.S. Debt Wall Is GETTING REAL IN 2026 - and It’s Bullish for $TLT! That massive blue spike on the chart isn’t “someday.” It’s 2026! THEY WILL CRASH STOCKS TO SAVE THE BOND MARKET! Trillions in U.S. Treasury debt mature over the next 12 - 24 months, issued when rates were near 0% and must now be refinanced at 4–5%+!! That’s the structural problem markets are underpricing. In plain English: - The U.S. loaded up on ultra-cheap debt - That debt is rolling into a much higher-rate world - Interest expense accelerates sharply - Something has to absorb the shock The US simply can't afford these kind of interest payments at 4 to 5%! Refinancing ~$8T of near-zero debt at 4 to 5% adds $200–300B a year in interest expense! That's FISCAL STRESS! Stress like this eventually means lower long-end yields i.e. Bullish for $TLT. The choices are limited: - Slower growth - Higher deficits - Financial repression - Lower long-term rates This is why the debt wall is not bearish for Treasuries. It’s bearish for sustained high yields! Over time, the system simply can’t tolerate “higher for longer” with debt this large. That’s the bull case for $TLT! Structurally, this setup argues for lower long-end yields, not higher. Potential catalyst: Flight to saftey from the IRAN war plus markets are increasingly focused on the next Fed leadership decision, with expectations that a Trump-aligned Fed pick would favor faster normalization and earlier rate cuts, consistent with his broader agenda! If that shift materializes, duration reprices quickly. Pay attention before the move, not after. NOW IS THE TIME.

伊朗直接化整为零😄 现在杀再多领导都没用了。

Trump目前认为战争的时间可能延长到4周左右。

伊朗开始对以色列使用集束炸弹 不过具体效果还不清楚，要注意目前处于战争信息战阶段，任何在以色列的人，上传和传输这些轰炸的照片均是非法的。

Keep in mind about the 45 days delay in BLS’s prints versus Truflation data https://t.co/jmHfqEiIBq

通过今天的新闻，我可以几乎百分百确定，周一油价会大飙升，股市会下跌。 原因很简单，目前来看消灭最高领袖哈梅内伊很明显没有导致战争趋于结束，而是换上了一个行事更果断，更难交涉，更加具有进攻性的领导。 但我觉得直接交易原油军火还是危险，因为战争的变化会让油价变化剧烈。但是可能可以交易 $XOM $CVX 因为如果没打完，由于这些美国公司的原油不是主要来自于波斯湾，会受益于油价上涨；如果伊朗议和，他们又可能从中获益，参考委内瑞拉。

通胀要是大飙升，川普中期选举就完蛋了。

美国也出现了伤亡😳 看来这次发射导弹没有提前通知。

😳疑似朗子又放开海峡了。目前这个海峡是对全世界市场影响最大的关键因素。

Iranian strikes on Dubai and U.S. military bases will intensify. Expect major escalation within the next 24 hours. Why? To hit President Trump’s crown jewel - the U.S. STOCK MARKET.

RT @ShanghaoJin: @rickawsb 好朋友想在另外的海峡上也搞一下 不会谈好2换1吧？

周末大盘指数收回全部跌幅。

I'm Mostly Against Borrowing Money to Invest in 2026 – Here's My Honest Take A lot of Millennials and Gen Z are still borrowing from the bank to buy stocks, ETFs, crypto or real estate - the trend never really went away in fact it's only growing. As of early 2026, approximately 24% to 43% of retail investors use some form of leverage, such as margin or options, to fund their investments. This trend is heavily driven by younger generations; for instance, a 2021 study indicated that 80% of Gen Z and 60% of Millennial investors have reported taking on debt to invest, compared to only 9% of Baby Boomers - Secured loan rates right now are around 5.25% if you put up your investments as collateral. - Inflation is just 2.3%. Stocks had a strong 2025 - so yeah, the math can look tempting on paper. I called my bank and ran a quick example: - Borrow $10k at 5.25% over 3 years. - After the tax deduction on the interest, real cost is about $500. - Put it in simple broad ETFs expecting a conservative 8% long-term return and you'd walk away with roughly $2,000 profit after paying everything back. Sounds okay, right? But the truth is I'm still mostly against using leverage to invest. It only makes sense in very limited situations, and even then only in tiny amounts. My personal rule? Never borrow more than 10% of your net worth for this. So if you have a $100k net worth that means max $10k - and honestly I'd probably do way less. You need: - A super secure job and big emergency fund - Almost zero other debt - The stomach to watch big drops without selling - A plan to hold 10+ years in boring index funds If you're new to investing, have shaky income, or panic when the market falls 20%? Stay far away - it can wreck you. I'm thinking about a very small amount myself, but nothing aggressive - there is lots of opportunites out there right now, both in bonds and equities. Slow and steady still wins for most people. Would you or are you currently borrowing money to invest right now? Tell me honestly in the comments.

如果周一之前伊朗就投降了，股市就会有强劲的复苏。

复盘检讨：既然情报已经知道底牌了，就不要看市场 尽量减少看推特，少看IB，买完把软件删掉 https://t.co/QI4p4mhMSx

No immediate retaliation means they are either all dead or hidden somewhere in a radio-silent state. Anyway, regime change is likely to happen IMO

Load up before GTC!

People Don’t Understand What’s Happening With RETAIL Investors in South Korea South Korean retail is so obsessed with US leveraged ETFs that regulators are now forcing mandatory DMV-style training just to buy them. Starting in Dec 15, anyone in Korea wanting to trade foreign leveraged or inverse ETFs must: • take a 1-hour online course • pass a 3-hour mock-trading program • complete extra steps for derivatives abroad Why? Because Korean retail put $7B into US leveraged ETFs in December 2025 alone and $40B in 2025!!! They are also some of the most aggressive traders of US single-name stocks - to the point where $IONQ now trades more daily volume in Korea than trillion-dollar companies like $AMZN, $MSFT, and $GOOGL. Read that again! This is one of the most misunderstood forces in markets right now. Regulators are scrambling to keep up, this is going to end in tears!

I hit $1M at 34. What’s YOUR number where you switch from growth to protection mode? Mine’s $3M–$4M. I went from broke & in debt at 24 to $1M at 34 - 10 years of pure grind! And I'm still at it (career, stocks, side hustles, compounding while I’m young). My goal is the $3M–$4M (or 25-30x expenses covered) - I tell myself I will ease off on the grind then. But the bigger the pile, the louder the fear: I find my mind wandering all the time - “What if I lose it all and wake up broke again?” That fear is loud because I started from zero, or less than zero! 75% return in 2025 was nice, and I'm aiming for at least 50% this year. But how do I beat the “lose it all” fear? I try to remember I built it once - I'm smart enough to keep it and keep growing it - and worse case scenario I can build it all back again from zero. Accept the fear is normal but moving from the “scarcity” mindset to the “I’ve already won" mindset is where I want to get to in 2026. Anyone else feel this?

交易计划：明日2:30pm-eod卖出long positions。开始慢慢买入大盘put。预判下行abc，Mar 4-5 and Mar 11-12两个低点。高点在Mar 7。到Mar 11附近重点操作对象是intc和amd。

THE DARK SIDE OF TRADING IN THE STOCK MARKET - Pregnant Woman's Husband Borrows and Lost $350,000 Day Trading! A heartbreaking (and far-too-common) story: While his pregnant wife was preparing for their new baby, her husband borrowed $350,000 and lost every single dollar day trading stocks. This isn’t just a bad trade - it’s financial devastation for an entire family at the most vulnerable time in their lives. Please don’t ever put your significant other or loved ones in this position. And never, ever borrow money to day trade. The Brutal Reality: - Multiple independent studies (Brazil, Taiwan, U.S. brokers) show the same thing: 90–97% of day traders lose money over time! - Only a tiny fraction (often less than 5%) are consistently profitable! Common-Sense Tips Most People Ignore: 1. Never trade with money you can’t afford to lose 100%. This means no loans, no margin you can’t pay back tomorrow, no credit cards, and definitely not your emergency fund or house payment money! 2. Build your foundation first. Pay off high-interest debt, have 6+ months of expenses saved, stable income, and a healthy emergency fund before you even think about speculating. 3. Paper trade and learn for months. Treat day trading like getting a pilot’s license - you wouldn’t fly a plane with real passengers on day one. Practice with fake money, backtest strategies, and track a detailed journal. 4. Use iron-clad risk rules. Never risk more than 5% of your total account on any single position. Always use stop-losses. Set daily/weekly loss limits and walk away when hit - no emotional revenge trading. 5. Be transparent with your partner. Trading decisions (especially risky ones) should never be hidden. Open communication protects your relationship and your finances. 6. Most people are better off with simple, long-term investing. Low-cost index funds have historically beaten 90%+ of active traders over time - with far less stress, time, and risk of total wipeout. Protect your family, your sleep, and your future. Trade responsibly - or don’t trade at all. Your loved ones will thank you. Full video on the Dave Ramsey show here: https://t.co/QA3UMoD73O

🤤大杀器了属于，赶紧降稅

有人的思路是跌的多要涨，涨得多要跌；我的思路是涨得多要涨更多，跌得多要跌更多。 不能一概而论，很多时候其实和流动性有关，流动性充足的时候，大家可以和你吃大锅饭；流动性不足的时候，别人就会抢你的饭，马太效应。 我觉得目前不是岁月静好的时候。 https://t.co/BCrVGJsDav

Citrini 认为大盘涨到8000点，美国经济就会陷入巨大衰退，由于AI过度生产以及分配不均。 目前大量经济指标都指向AI可能带来滞涨，但我觉得这种结构性问题需要一个引爆点。否则目前的依然有缓冲空间。 那就是Data Center带来的巨量基础设施投资依然支撑着美国的消费和就业。只有以下事情全部兑现，Citrini的预言才会实现： 1. 由于中国大量廉价模型的冲击，美国的大模型始终无法达到足以覆盖数据中心建设成本的收入（2030年达到2万亿） 2. 由于算力过剩，美国云计算公司开始减记折旧损失，并且引爆了循环融资的泡沫，导致云计算公司、GPU制造商、AI初创公司价值全面暴跌。 3. 由于数据中心建设带动的就业潮消失，体力劳动以及脑力劳动的双重失业潮叠加，经济陷入消费不足的通缩萧条。

Citrini Research warns that AI could trigger one of the worst US recessions in history. The underlying causes? The rapid devaluation of average human intellect and severely inefficient wealth distribution.

RT @commonsenseplay: MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE IN THE STOCK MARKET! Retail investors will always be misled by hedge-fund billionaires. $…

SPY cratering while $TLT just keeps going higher and I keep accumulating. Breakout continues. https://t.co/ob1OAeG5Uw

spy qqq在跌，intc却撑住，这货这周可期。

好消息是 $UVXY 还没过5%，但是市场下跌的广度非常之大, 明早再看吧。

降息预期降低了

好的我总结一下下周我要干什么： 我们要做多金属 侧击半导体 大盘可能持续上涨，继续抄底云果软 韩国股市也可以继续搞

I read the Citrini paper and summarised the 10 key points you need to know so you don't have to: 1. It's a "what if" scenario from called the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis. 2. It's not saying it WILL happen, just a smart thought experiment on what could go wrong if AI gets way too good too fast. 3. The basic idea: Late 2025 AI agents start doing most white-collar work - coding full apps, customer service, analysis, bookings, you name it. Companies go nuts replacing people to save money. 4. At first it looks awesome - profits jump, stocks rip higher into late 2026. 5. Then the nasty loop hits - all those laid-off office workers (who do most of the spending on houses, vacations, cars, restaurants) stop buying stuff. 6. Sales drop everywhere. So companies lean even harder on AI to cut more costs then Rinse and repeat. 7. They call it "Ghost GDP" - machines make more but regular people have no cash to buy it. 8. By mid-2028 in this story, Unemployment hits 10.2% S&P 500 down 38% from the highs! 9. House prices tank in tech cities (SF -11%, Seattle -9%, Austin -8%) 10. SaaS companies laying off 15%, private credit defaults popping, payments slow down It's the ultimate AI paradox - the better AI works, the more it can wreck the economy that relies on people earning and spending. This aligns with my thesis on $TLT - I went long with 60% of my portfolio.

Bottom in

特朗普的最新贸易判决下： 跪得最快的亏得最多。

特朗普宣布15%全球关税以及之前的关税非法以后，各国反应不一，但是总体来说，几乎所有的谈判和关税进程都停止了。我的建议是这些国家不要宣布任何东西，悄咪咪的把谈好的给美国的一切优惠条件全部废除。 因为理论上Trump目前只能用这个15%的关税，等Trump后面要来吵这个问题，就拖他。 这是目前最好的方案，因为目前的15%就是Trump能拿出的最好的关税。

I measure my wealth against the S&P 500, not USD or CPI. Over the past 12 months, my portfolio grew +93.5%. If your net worth went up 10% in 2025 while the S&P gained 16%, you actually fell behind. Indexes like $VTI , $SPY , $VOO are just the baseline. https://t.co/PVehj8oqDN

特朗普将关税再上调到15%，昨天还说实际上降低到10%, 降低是不可能降低的。

Pedophilia is trying everything to break the economy.

空头已经开始退出。

有人说市场很弱，这是错觉。 市场很强，下周可能会继续反弹。 $SPY 4天涨了3天怎么会弱呢？？ $SPY 下周可能会创历史新高哦。 只是你买的股票没涨，大部分大科技股都至少出现了短期反转的趋势。 https://t.co/tclTQeRCFv

其实这是民主党终极阳谋，如果现在立刻许诺每个人都被Trump收了这么多钱。Trump给就是州政府民主党的功劳，不给大家就会觉得是Trump的错。

那其实所有有关税协议的都降低到了10%， this sounds like a good news

各个州政府可能都会向联邦索求关税补偿。 伊利诺伊州已率先提出每个家庭1700美元，总额87亿美元的赔偿。

Fortunately, today we are not seeing a similar pattern to Wednesday. The VIX dipped and never recovered, losing the major level of 20. ES reclaimed 6920, and NQ was very close to the safe level. I closed most of my SPY/QQQ put hedge before the market close. https://t.co/4BRkgEsKdG

我认为今天的数据和判决以后， $IWM 以及高风险资产会有一波回撤，所以抄底 100B市值以下的公司要小心。

Trump在目前所有关税的基础上直接再加10%的关税，可以说是相当欺负人了，前几天掏光家底跪着求来的台湾、日本韩国15%的关税，还没放热又被加回25%。比原来还高..

Bears will be squeezed out.

今天的数据其实特别差，但是差风险资产还在涨，那就是一种不差，一种韧性和bullish的体现。所以我们还是得坚持抄底的思路。

按计划大盘应该继续下 intc应该探42-41

RT @commonsenseplay: Is It Time to Rotate Out of Stocks and Into Bonds? This chart shows a simple but powerful signal about confidence in…

Trump真的是得了失心疯。还GDP涨10%，今年可能给你干衰退了。

The Stock Market trying to decide if today's tariff ruling + GDP print + inflation data + Iran headlines are bullish or bearish. https://t.co/5Tp19DWA5s

Trump's The Art of the Distraction: Dropping alien disclosure hints and whispers of an Iran invasion just before those brutal GDP and inflation numbers hit. Coincidence? I think not. https://t.co/mu2AZMnTBX

Supreme Court rules 6–3 against Trump on tariffs. So what happens next? Are we seriously talking about refunding China and Russia billions of dollars? You can bet they’re watching laughing at us.

Yes, this is a good indicator for a market bottom or a short term rebound when the market is dropping sharply. Another good indicator is the dark pool index (DIX). However, these signals are quite reliable only for short-term bounces but not for mid- or long-term moves.

RT @commonsenseplay: And now the Atlanta Fed weighs in: business inflation expectations have tumbled to 1.9% - dipping under the 2% target…

我觉得现在市场很特别，HV超低，IV超高。真的很奇怪？？

$SRPT keeps grinding higher. Steady accumulation over the past few sessions - even as the broader market pulls back. Very interesting price action ahead of earnings next week - don’t get shaken out. https://t.co/sLzYeyPysD

Still seeing that Feb 23 is the bottom. The bottom may happen in globex.

$TLT goes green again, BONDS OUTPERFORMNG STOCKS. YTD performance, including dividends, stands at +3.2%. With another dividend payout coming on February 2nd. As a reminder, $TLT offers a 4.3% yield, with monthly distributions that you can reinvest for compounded growth. Compare that to the equity benchmark $SPY, which turned negative today YTD. I've said it a hundred times, and I'll say it again: 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the bond. I see $TLT delivering 30-40% total returns by year's end, driven by shifting rates and weakening labour market.

如果今天震荡上行 那2:30-end of day加put。

好奇怪，为什么 $UVXY 今天会这么高，而大盘却没怎么跌，我得调查一下。

倒也不是，湾区炒股的人很少很少，他们的股票大部分是公司发的。最起码和我一起工作的人，如果不是我勾引他们去炒股，经常整个组一个炒股的人都没有。大部分的人要么是定投SPY要么是拿着公司的股票不动。 如果炒股的定义是持有SPY QQQ和自己公司以外的股票的话。 特别是华人，华人的父母是受到过A股充分教育的，在他们眼里炒股和赌博吸毒差不多。

是嘟，特别是0DTE期权打开以后，期权市场的流动性更加宽裕了，目前VRP的指示性很强。昨天开盘以后就发现本周的Bull setup很强。

My personal thoughts : We might see another similar move pattern on Friday. VIX dips in AM and rises in PM Anyway if ES retests 6910-20, NQ retests 25090-25160 and can’t reclaim, then it’s still a bearish environment. If ES breaks down 6800, I’d expect more violent downward move.

VIX is bullish reversal from 10D EMA, I added my march spy/qqq puts back again as hedge when 30 minutes pivot https://t.co/pEYpBIBeEk

今天下午 2:00 ET（11:00 PT）将公布 FOMC 1月会议纪要。

RT @commonsenseplay: How often U.S. bonds beat U.S. stocks (last 40+ years) Over the last 45 years - bonds have outperformed the S&P 500…

市场position仍不友好： deal neg gamma/挂单少会加剧波动，CTA在净卖出 上周更像是美股大票估值确实已经砸地板上了，retail在抄底。但你们如果期待大牛市，应该希望这狠狠调整下，把估值离谱的先腰斩一下 现状大部分AI相关的票没泡沫，但局部叙事非常严重。如果能先挤一挤，估值正常修复都能破新高

Unitree Robotics robot shooting test. Serious question: Is the U.S. falling behind in robotics? While America debates AI valuations, Chinese firms are publicly demonstrating armed autonomous platforms. First the kung fu dancing - now actual autonomous soldiers shooting machine guns! Are we still leading - or not? @elonmusk ? This is slightly terrifying.

1人一个项目赚10亿美元！

How often U.S. bonds beat U.S. stocks (last 40+ years) Over the last 45 years - bonds have outperformed the S&P 500 11 times. Years bonds outperformed equities: 1981 1982 1984 1990 1994 2000 2001 2002 2008 2011 2018 That’s 26% of the time - roughly 1 in 4. Most of those years were when stocks stumbled or markets were risk-off. 2026 will be one of those years - WE ARE OVERDUE - plus the set up is there: 🔹 Rates are coming down 🔹 Jobs market is slowing 🔹 Risk-off environment

交易计划：周三周四高点买spy put。等待收钱。

RT @commonsenseplay: BREAKING: US 2025 JOBS REVISED DOWN BY ~1 MILLION - LARGEST DOWNWARD REVISION IN DECADES!! WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS! $…

RT @commonsenseplay: I see this all the time “FED just injected (insert billion dollar amount here) into the market” These posts are so…

If you are investing in the stock market on Margin greater than 10% - get out now! You were warned.

I see this all the time “FED just injected (insert billion dollar amount here) into the market” These posts are so stupid!!! This is not bullish for the stock market. $16B in Treasury bill purchases does not equal money printing!! This is short-term liquidity management by the Fed - not QE. $16B is a rounding error in a $100T+ capital market system. If anything, bill ops usually signal liquidity stress - not bullish stimulus. Don't fall for this crap!

THIS is how retail investors lose money - chasing hype instead of businesses. $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN As Peter Lynch said: “Stocks are not lottery tickets.” “There is a company behind every stock.” “Trying to predict the market is a waste of time.” That advice is timeless- right now, new investors are piling into hype themes: - Quantum: $IONQ, $RGTI, $LAES, $BTQ -Nuclear: $OKLO - Flying cars: $JOBY - Strong risk‑on tilt: Crypto/BTC proxies ( $IREN, $GLXY, $COIN, $MSTR, $IBIT + miners) and AI/infra momentum ( $AVGO, $CRWV, $PLTR). Some of these ran 1,000%–4,000% in a year - despite no profits, and in some cases barely any revenue - yet they’re valued in the billions. That’s not investing this is gambling on momentum, Here’s how the cycle usually works: - Story gets hot - Retail piles in - Funds and algos distribute into strength The fundamentals start to show (or the lack of), reality hits and Retail is left holding the bag! We’ve already seen 60 - 70% drawdowns in the last few months alone - and bubbles rarely stop there! The $SPY is less than 2% away from all time highs - if we get a correction these names will collapse even more! Keep it simple. Buy profitable, growing companies that generate real cash flow. That’s why I like companies like $META - it’s a compounding machine, not a hype stock based on the promise of some future breakthrough. Common Sense: 1. Don’t chase hype. 2. Stocks are not lottery tickets. 3. Own real businesses.

I think Michael Burry’s new strategy is much smarter in two ways: 1. Shorting single names instead of indexes 2. Publicly sharing concrete theses to convince people and build consensus People think he’s selling subscriptions for a living. No, whatever BS he wrote doesn’t matter. He’s actually building an efficient, distributed, crowd funded short-selling institution without the need for 13F filings or SEC surveillance.

RT @labubu_trader: @extliqprovider Oversold to a nonsensical level, and Mr. Citrini called it out. Another tailwind is the 10-year rate d…

祝大家新年快乐！ 明天总统日，股市不开门。 https://t.co/UMvBeFmxtx

就业数据其实很差.. 这可能会进一步增加降息预期。

RT @commonsenseplay: Seeing all the bearish posts on FinX lately has me second-guessing my own downbeat take on the market and what's comin…

MUST READ FOR ALL NEW/YOUNG INVESTORS OUT THERE! DO NOT BUY SINGLE SPECULATIVE STOCKS IN THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING HOME OWNERSHIP! This is how you lose everything. 99% of people should dollar cost average into index funds and call it a day! You can buy these for the rest of your life and beat 99% of traders. 1. $VOO: Low-cost S&P 500 tracker for the biggest U.S. companies. 2. $VGT: Concentrated U.S. tech sector (Apple, Nvidia, etc.). 3. $VV: Broad large-cap U.S. stocks beyond the top 500. 4. $IWM: Small-cap U.S. stocks (Russell 2000). 5. $VTI: Total U.S. stock market (large + mid + small). 6. $QQQ: Nasdaq-100: heavy tech & growth stocks. 7. $SPY: Most liquid S&P 500 tracker since 1993. Put 10-30% of your paycheck in some of these. Your money will double every 4-7 years.

THE YOUNG INVESTOR IS RISKING IT ALL IN THE STOCK MARKET VERSUS BUYING A HOME! FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.226T (Dec 2025). THIS IS A ALL TIME HIGH. 1. US margin debt as a share of REAL disposable personal income just exceeded 6% for the first time (6.2%, per Real Investment Advice). Again this is the highest on record. 2. Per analyses of FINRA data, margin debt has climbed the last 8 months in a row and is up roughly $326B YoY. Leverage is accelerating higher and higher every month as investors FOMO into the stock market. 3. Historically, extremes in leverage tend to show up in late‑cycle environments. i.e. right before a correction/collapse 4. We saw similar “speculation peaks” right before before the 2000 dot‑com bust and pre‑GFC in 2007. 5. There is almost NO CASH on the sidelines, Retail has went all in on the stock market because buying a home is not achievable through saving alone: - Retail portfolio cash allocation ~14% (near dot‑com lows) This is dangerous. 6. 2025 was the weakest job market in 22 years outside of recessions (after revisions): - Total payrolls rose only +181k in 2025 (Dec‑to‑Dec). - Private education and health services added +697k. - Ex‑education/health, the rest of the economy was NEGATIVE ‑0.5M! 7. Young investors are literally saying “I feel like my money is safer in the stock market than in a house.” A generation locked out of homeownership has found another way to build wealth - taking risk in equities. This is not going to end well. 8. Why long‑duration Treasuries like $TLT could be a great 2026 option: - In a growth scare, de‑risking, yields will fall fast and duration will rally. - $TLT just reclaimed its 200‑day MA (~$88). 2026 will be the year of long duration Bonds! I am long TLT with 60% of my portfolio!

Seeing all the bearish posts on FinX lately has me second-guessing my own downbeat take on the market and what's coming. Charts look ugly as hell, but when everyone's piling on the doom here, and I see bullish long term bond $TLT posts everywhere I start worrying about crowded trades getting wrecked. But nah, take a step back -X is just a tiny bubble of us market junkies obsessing over every tick and tweet. We are not the average retail investor who is blissfully unaware of what is coming. Your timeline's curated to what you follow too - out in the real world, most retail folks are parked in ETFs, not glued to the latest CPI prints. US ETFs raked in $1.48T in inflows last year pushing assets over $13T. And only about 13% of households even hold them - the average Joe? Blissfully holding index funds, unaware of the writing on the wall. Latest consumer survey results? Bullish at 38.5%, bearish right behind at 38.1%. Pretty even keel. Hell, 74% of business leaders are pumped for 2026. So, is it really crowded if the masses don't see the storm coming? My bearish bet's still on with 60% of my portfolio in long term bonds ETF's $TLT and https://t.co/1xeqzV9teb.

RT @commonsenseplay: WHEN TO SHORT A STOCK AND WHEN TO COVER! I get asked this often - so here are the core principles from history's grea…

Do I know where money will be rotated to within spx? No, I don’t and I don’t even care. So just buy the whole market.

粉子们，Feb 23正负一个trading days给我做多。如果Feb 25，再踩一脚不要慌，再加仓。put/call ratio已经到了疯魔的地步了，所以我们要让这些put都成为燃料。如果快速拉涨，咱们Feb 27把成本提出去，剩下free ride。（另外就是对于反弹到Feb 18+/-1的观点不变）

美联储卖出债务会抽走市场的流动性，但是其他人公司发债以及IPO等融资，会吸走市场流动性，并推高通胀。 特朗普第一任期大牛市其实是发生在特朗普降低海外收入、企业税以及回购等的税收，推动了企业前所未有的大规模回购分红。 但目前大公司为了提高CAPEX纷纷停止回购分红甚至举债，这一增一减，大的公司肯定是好不了的。 所以一定是很特定的板块，才能在今年有organic的growth。

今年的超级IPO可能会把市场的流动性完全吸干，还有包括大企业大规模举债等等因素。使得市场的流动性下降了数万亿美元。 所以我认为今年会很差…

Common Sense Story Time: Volume #16 "I LOST $1,030,220.81 in the stock market" Read about a guy today who lost $1M+ trading options/memes on WallStreetBets. He sold his house, car, maxed cards, lied to everyone. Wife/kids gone. Slept on benches. Pure ego, greed and no discipline. Now he is building slow from $25k, made $14k last week. Says he'll get it all back the right way. I've seen this story a hundred times on here. The market doesn't kill you - your psyche does. My takeaways after years watching blowups: 1. Avoid leverage at all costs 2. Never risk family/home money. Ever! 3.Greed feels like skill… until its not. 4. Tame the degen inside first - manage your position size, this is so key to win long-term. 5. Survive to trade another decade. Stay humble!

预告本周文章，美股抄底攻略。 具体说目前有哪些底，为什么我们要抄，以及要做哪些准备和信号。 写给大家也是写给我自己。

是的，目前市场处于一个risk off的阶段。但是短期的IV和中期的IV出现了很大的偏离，短期的IV crash的非常严重。这可能是大凶之兆，因为空头有足够的短期杠杆砸盘。

虚弱啊，没有龙头股带头的市场是不可能有牛市的。

Portfolio Update: +93.47% 12 MONTH RETURN! That's not luck - it's the result of disciplined, common-sense strategies focusing on undervalued gems, market trends, shorting hype stocks and risk management that anyone can apply. Subscribe for my full portfolio, access to live trade alerts and direct DM's. You also support the mission of bringing the honest, raw truth to Retail investors!

If there are no wars over the weekend, the rally will continue into Feb 17-18. So buy puts on Feb 18 plus minus 1 day.

Markets were expecting a tariff-impacted hot CPI print today but they were dead wrong The next few months will see a choppy environment for all assets, including commodities, as the debate between “AI kills everything and deflationary” vs “Trump/Takachi are reflationary” intensifies

$TLT rallies while the $SPY crashes. Now is the time - 2026 will be the year of the Bond. https://t.co/IA93Mk8TJa

RT @truflation: US CPI today, according to our independent price data, is 0.72% Y/Y. The latest US CPI report for December was 2.7%. In…

我认为CPI会偏低。

🤣🤣🤣 QQQ civil war now is officially turning into SPY super smash bros https://t.co/Uew503CbhS

再说一下 买短期options的赌狗 大神也救不了你。还有就是不知道如何控制仓位的，大神也救不了你。

严重的算法踩踏。 还是要继续等待。

波动又会很大。

No matter how many times I’ve shouted from the rooftops of how garbage these quantum companies are. $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS Retail bulls continued to buy the dips. They have now utterly collapsed 70%+ in just a few months… and there is more downside coming (we are 1.5% off ATH in the S&P)!

Hope you listened and actually held onto your gains from 2025's historic stock market bull run!

大白话就是盘久必变 横久了卖vol的、敢挂单做市的都越来少 一旦下跌，neg gamma、CTA都会跟着卖。现在盘口挂单量不到过去1/3，指数会跌很快 但是包括CTA仓位已经比较满了，反过来要快速上涨难度相比较大不少。风险不对称

Bullish Kioxia -> Bearish AAPL + tons of other neg catalysts -> AAPL selloff -> ES/NQ down -> trigger CTA/vol control sell off. Also CPI hedge flow also expedite the selloff

If spy pops tomorrow because of cpi, buy puts again. You certainly can take profit of your puts at today’s low.

Easiest money you will ever make. Quantum shorts continue to print as $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS continue to bleed while the $SPY and the rest of the market is green! https://t.co/A5T5QxP74R

Holding half of the names on the list 🎉🎉

At this point, government data is worse than a guess It’s wild that the Fed and major investors base their entire strategy on these numbers, only for them to be walked back later. This is exactly why the system feels like "poor theater." A complete mess.

THE STOCK MARKET'S GLARING RED WARNING SIGNAL. Take a gander at this chart from Advisor Perspectives (below). It plots FINRA margin debt - basically cash folks borrow from brokers to snap up more stocks, kinda like maxing out a credit card for investments - against the inflation-adjusted S&P 500. When debt balloons like this, it's a sign everyone's getting too hyped, and bam, corrections or recessions hit. Quick history from the chart - those gray bars are recessions, and debt peaked just before: - March 2000 ($300B): Dot-com bubble pops and the S&P tanks 49%, leading to a recession in '01. - July 2007 ($400B): Leads to 08 crisis, S&P down 57%, Great Recession. - Feb 2020 ($650B): COVID slam, S&P drops 34% in weeks, quick recession. - Oct/Nov 2021 ($935B): Signals '22 bear market, S&P drops 25% amid inflation mess. Now, as of today Feb 11, 2026: - Margin debt hit a record $1.226 trillion in Dec 2025 (up 0.9% from Nov, 36% from last year) - S&P closed at 6,941 today and real (inflation-adjusted) it's about 6,978 - Way up from the chart's 2023 levels ($700B debt, 6,000 real S&P). - Debt's still surging with stocks at all time highs, lines diverging like before those busts. No crash so far, but man, it's flashing warning lights for me. THIS NEVER ENDS WELL. PLEASE DO NOT USE MARGIN TO BUY STOCKS - COMMON SENSE. And if you do please keep it under 15%. Honest question - are you currently investing on margin? (if yes what %)

2025年实际上减少了86.2万个工作岗位😳 不过似乎感觉对经济没什么影响。

NFP居然有130k….

非农大超预期，打消了经济衰退的疑虑。不过这个数据意味着降息的概率会下降一些，但是这个数据一向不准. 从 $UVXY 来看，今天大盘情绪面比较高，应该不会炒作加息。

What was Peter Navarro talking about ??? Job numbers beat expectations.

BAD NEWS IS STILL BAD NEWS. If tomorrow’s jobs report sucks (Navarro just said live on Fox it will be) and it forces the Fed to cut rates faster… It's not good news.. It’s STILL BAD NEWS! Consumer debt exploding. Consumer sentiment at decade lows. Jobs AND inflation falling off a cliff Bad news is bad news. Period!

BREAKING: THE JOBS REPORT TOMORROW WILL BE HORRIFIC - PETER NAVARRO JUST ADMITTED IT ON FOX TODAY. BONDS ARE RALLYING, EQUITIES ARE DOWN. A RECESSION MAY ALREADY BE UPON US. PREPARE YOUR 401K NOW. https://t.co/EvlI5WsaR0

JUST IN: US loan delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017. The consumer is cracking - higher rates are finally biting. We are probably already in a recession. This data comes straight from the New York Fed Household Debt & Credit Report. Watch credit cards, autos, then jobs.

Even if spy chose the bullish path till May-June or even till July, crypto will remain bearish until everyone gives up. Price target: btc 10-20k

I have two fractals. One of them is like below. However I cannot determine whether the market will continue with the bullish fractals or the bearish one. Let’s monitor the Mar bounce: if we cannot recover the decline within the first 2 weeks of Mar, then bearish it is.

随着大股票0日期权的开放，美股市场交易量创历史新高。

看了上周ADP和JOLTS后，你们还觉得周五NFP会好么？ 我怎么觉得大概率得“拉一坨大的”出来呢

一切都按照我之前提示的在走，大盘拉的速度非常快，周三正负一天就是一个local顶了，然后开始回撤。

Fund secured! 美国资本市场里有的是钱，谁在怕他们没钱建数据中心？

我Elon画出来的大饼你们不吃也得吃。

还通胀？我非常担心通缩～～

I also suspect ground invasion but I am not sure. If it is ground invasion, prepare for real blood.

BREAKING: THE SECRET DRIVING INFLATION FINALLY REVEALED! High correlation is something I see everywhere on X driving investment thesis.... "This indicator perfectly predicted the last 10 Fed moves... load up now!" But without causation it's often just coincidence, shared trends, or data mining. In investing, always hunt for the why behind the chart. Is there a real economic link? Or is it cheese-level nonsense...Don't get burned chasing spurious patterns. Stick to fundamentals and sound reasoning. Spurious correlation level: expert (Image below) Per capita mozzarella cheese consumption in the US correlates with US inflation (CPI) at r=0.981 (1995–2021)! As Americans ate more mozzarella... inflation rose almost perfectly in step. r² = 0.962 (meaning ~96% of inflation's variation is 'explained' by... cheese consumption) p < 0.01 Obviously, mozzarella isn't secretly driving inflation. Both just trended upward over decades (population growth, economic expansion, more pizza demand, monetary policy, etc.). Classic spurious correlation - strong stats but zero causation. This happens ALL the time in markets. We see two things move together and think "A causes B, time to trade it!" 1. "Bitcoin & GPU prices are linked - buy mining stocks!" (until crypto crashes) 2. "When oil rises, energy stocks always follow" (until supply shocks or recessions break it) 3. "This indicator perfectly predicted the last 10 Fed moves... load up!"

99% of people should dollar cost average into index funds and call it a day! You can buy these for the rest of your life and beat 99% of traders. 1. $VOO: Low-cost S&P 500 tracker for the biggest U.S. companies. 2. $VGT: Concentrated U.S. tech sector (Apple, Nvidia, etc.). 3. $VV: Broad large-cap U.S. stocks beyond the top 500. 4. $IWM: Small-cap U.S. stocks (Russell 2000). 5. $VTI: Total U.S. stock market (large + mid + small). 6. $QQQ: Nasdaq-100: heavy tech & growth stocks. 7. $SPY: Most liquid S&P 500 tracker since 1993. Put 10-30% of your paycheck in some of these. Your money will double every 4-7 years.

恭喜大家，股市又要开门哦🤤 期货市场VIX大幅走低，明天基本又是绿开。 https://t.co/Tjduoo98En

我可能不太懂AI 不过宏观上。尽管我已经不在高盛dealer desk了，但是自以为肯定不是菜鸟 我不会随便看着“Fed balancesheet”就说流动性紧缺，然后要崩盘的 流动性这个东西需要多维度、前瞻性看的

Must watch.

OpenAI和Anthropic是两条完全不同的商业发展路线。 Sam希望OpenAI成为一个类似于Google和Microsoft的巨型综合体公司。 Anthropic更像是成为Netflix或者Meta这种在一个领域做到极致的公司。

美股上市，将成为台积电第二

有没有可能他们并不是嘴资，真空了美股？

Baron has bought the dip.

Whole market setup looks textbook dead cat bounce today. Quick pop then right back down. https://t.co/zmePNe2U5S

我担心很多人的饭碗

假的～～刚刚转美元买股票 如果有人阴谋论觉得BN在做空市场，那么应该快点把其他交易所的钱取出来放BN。Not the other way around 因为其他人都在多头….

Humans participate in the market, so the market acts like a human. They have emotions and memory.

Common sense TRUMPS hype. Every. Single. Time. How’s your portfolio holding up? I made +75% in 2025. In 2026 so far I am +4% YTD while the entire market bleeds! Everyone on X is down 10 to 50% as hype stocks & tech get crushed. S&P just went red for the year. Don't chase memes or overvalued AI/Quantum plays. Stick to fundamentals: real earnings, strong balance sheets, sane valuations. Diversify properly, quality longs plus bonds plus hedges/shorts + cash/money market, even REITs. Position sizing rules that save you: Max 5% per stock (even less on riskier ones) Keep cash in reserve to buy the dips or add more to your shorts!

跌得真爽

根据之前的分析，目前大盘的IV是远高于HV，所以我们采取的交易策略应该是做日内反弹V或者日内回落A，而不是做日间交易。因为这个结构说明，主要波动都集中在了日内，而非日间。 https://t.co/uLmnxpymRp

你就拉扯吧，股价都快被拉没了。

Everything is free falling - fun fun fun!

所以财报，华尔街其实有一个whisper estimate。公开的estimate 其实是假的，甚至可能和公司高管通过气，基本都会beat。 所以我们仔细分析whisper/public estimate，其实可以估计出一些财报结果的概率分布。

The market is like my wife: I’d never argue with her when she’s in the mood. She’s always right! I think many names are mispriced, but I’d never fight the market or catch a falling knife in the short term—until the last retarded seller has dumped the last share.

Capex is a sin now. https://t.co/EwUYedylzm

I also expect something very negative to the financial market on Feb 14 plus minus one day.

Thur-Fri will have another dip. It can be a lower low. The we will have a bounce into the cpi day. CPI will be very cool so I am expecting a high on Feb 11.

等等看看你的预测对吗 我觉得这两个都是超级不抗打的，beta不好的时候…

So much fun to see the market doing free fall!

熊熊们加油 别客气 如果你们一天打掉300点 那我们就可以做多了。

Finally the market joined me in the risk off mode.

tmd dip来晚了一天 算不我不准

IPO的时候大涨觉得一级市场的人估价太低了。但是隔一段时间以后，往往发觉他们的估值实在高得离谱。这一切都是流动性在作怪，承销商控制流动性的时候价格会很高，他们完全退出以后就会大崩盘。

粉子们 enjoy the dip

spy 快要日内dip了。

$SPY is green yet the 4 quantum sh*itco pure plays continue their collapse downwards. $RGTI , $IONQ , $QBTS down over -3% .. shorts keep on printing! https://t.co/IAyTEuwBbR

我计划Feb 11清掉所有长仓。本周嘛，我会买点多仓。

大佬们，周末让你们茶饭不思的市场又开门了！ $VIX好高，有点虚弱.. https://t.co/XZTSpvL1ha

Truflation显示通胀正在急剧降低，但Truflation仅仅有一定的参考意义，美联储只会看PPI和CPI

US is clearing the path.

I feel the big uncertainty of “Warsh Shock” is hanging over all markets right now. It’d introduce big volatility in all markets in the short term until he addresses it But I believe it’ll be nothing burger after that. So I’m seeing the Feb weakness as a buying opportunity still

都在说Kevin Warsh会降息+缩表？ 1. 不负责任的财政政策，会不会伴随真正负责的货币政策？欧债危机已经证明了 2. Trump要的是降息还是大水漫灌？ 3. Warsh 为什么一直以来反对宽松？作为最年轻的联储委员，鹰派异议建立的是自己品牌 4. 选Warsh是因为是自己人娃娃还是专业？专业的Jpow才是永远的痛

德州选举民主党逆转了一个重要选区。难道川普要成为MAGA的川哀宗、川献帝了吗？ 中期选举民主党重新掌控众议员概率已经飙升到85%以上，50%以上的概率他们又会弹劾特朗普。 不过好在川普仍然有10个月的时间逆转未来。

Mind-blowing stat that's still 100% worth revisiting (and it's gotten even more extreme since) From 1926–2022: - Total of 28,114 U.S. public companies over that period - But just the Top 25 stocks accounted for 1/3 of ALL shareholder wealth created... that's 0.09% of the stocks! The big lesson: Stock market wealth is insanely concentrated. A tiny handful of superstar stocks create nearly all the gains - most stocks actually underperform safe Treasury bills over their lifetimes. Trying to pick the winners in advance is extremely hard (near impossible for most). The smart move: Diversify broadly so you own more of the market and capture those rare outliers without missing them. Otherwise invest in bonds and t-bills. Stunning graphic by@VisualCapResearch by Hendrik Bessembinder (@ASU) (Note: Recent tech gains have pushed top performers like Apple even higher since this data.)

一般这种大爆破会稍微回拉一下

A new world: https://t.co/hIgtNOMcXb

我觉得二月通常很差，或许这个月我们应该多做空。

February is bad!

美国政府再次关门。

MUST KNOW: Majority of individual stocks (58.6%) underperform Treasury bills over their lifetimes! More than half deliver negative cumulative returns - many end up in bankruptcy with shares worth $0. Timeless reminder in 2026: Stock picking is risky - The market's gains come from a tiny handful of winners. Diversify broadly and DO NOT GO ALL IN ON ONE OR TWO STOCKS!

反指来了！

For a big selloff like this, I'd be patient and wait until a real bottom forms. The bottom needs to be tested multiple times on the daily timeframe.

市场瞬间就转向了鹰派交易。但是Kevin是不是真的鹰，有很大的疑问。从现在开始他的发言很重要，理论上，为了迎合特朗普，他应该会出鸽派发言。 https://t.co/oEdaXd8QiF

People are thinking Warsh is hawkish, but why would Mr T spent so much time to pick a hawkish Fed chair? He just needs someone who doesn’t look like a bootlicker to convince the other Fed members to continue cutting rates even when economy is growing strongly

是Trump TACO选Kevin Warsh？我觉得可能是Warsh向领导“对齐”了 可以去听听Rubio Vance以前对Trump言论。政客的立场是随时可以变的，他们骂Trump并不妨碍后来国会起立500次鼓掌 Warsh是市场不喜欢的“鹰派”。但是最大的忠诚不是能把自己的过去都按在地上摩擦吗？驯化了野狗才显得主人牛X

看你这货把市场吓的 https://t.co/OPqBE94O51

Why don’t we just give the Whole US to Elon or just gift the Fed’s Money printers to him.

Kevin Warsh极有可能是一个温和鹰派，最起码在所有Trump的候选人最鹰的一个。 他的理想目标是一套降息+缩表的组合，通过抛售国债回收流动性的同时，利用降息回补。 这会导致长端利率上行，短端利率下行，压制高PE股票，和初创公司，但是利好银行，因为银行的基本赚钱逻辑是存短贷长。 所以我们可以关注银行股 $JPM 如果明天真的宣布Kevin Warsh为下一联美联储主席。银行股可能会飙升。

Really？ That is big

That’s more like reinforcement of AI bubble narrative started by Sam Altman on the BG2 podcast. The impact was not as big as MSFT. It’s only half day but already 85M record high trading volume on MSFT equals ~$36B, which was big enough to cause short term systematic shock.

Powell was almost neutral overall, and the market only slightly adjusted its future rate-cut expectations. A total non-event. I feel like Powell now only cares about his retirement and just wants to run away from FOMC conferences the way my son treats his homework.

感觉像布林顿森林体系又崩了一次。 https://t.co/1RcSU1oMyb

半导体再度全面起飞 明天大盘将创新高。

I’m 35. I’ve lived through the ’08 financial crisis, the 2015 oil & gas collapse, the COVID crash - and the face-ripping rally that followed. What have I learned? Positioning matters. Not timing but positioning. Don’t ignore the cheerleaders, and don’t ignore the doomers. Neither knows how this ends, but both bring data. Your job is to filter it and decide your course of action. Don’t hang on every word from X “gurus.” Plenty will lead you astray. Be selective about who you listen to - but in the end, do what’s best for your finances and your mental health. And yes, money stress absolutely impacts mental health! Be careful with the “dividends only” crowd too. Many have never experienced dividends getting cut and “safe” stocks crashing after a freeze. Downturns always come. Dividends can help, but they aren’t a complete strategy. Don’t day trade. Stocks, options, crypto - it doesn’t matter. Most won’t win. The loudest winners usually make more selling courses than trading. Long-term consistency is rare. Be cautious holding high-risk assets during periods of global uncertainty. Things can go sideways fast. Start a side hustle. Mock the phrase if you want - start one anyway. Ten years from now, you’ll be glad you did. Diversify. Never bet everything on one asset. Even boring assets matter - when volatility comes ...and it will, stability has real value both for your account balance and your mental health! Build relationships. At the end of the day, that’s what truly matters. And family runs deepest. And above all: Money won’t make you happy - but it does make life easier. There’s nothing wrong with pursuing it, just don’t do it at the expense of your sanity or your relationships! Common Sense Advice!

Stock market crash of 2008. Never forget, we are overdue! $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN , $LAES , $BTC , $BTQ , $JOBY , $OPEN , $META , $NVDA , $GOOG , $TLT, $GME , $PLTR , $SRPT , $PYPL , $PATH , $TSLA https://t.co/uOcYmP783t

这具有迷惑性，货币价值并不一定会一直升高，相反应该保持平衡。BTW， $SPY 已经刷新历史新高。

PETER LYNCH DROPPING GOLD TALKING ABOUT PULLBACKS IN THE STOCK MARKET, Peter Lynch's 1994 mic-drop is a much needed reality check for us in 2026 with the stock market at ATH's. "The math is simple. There have been 93 years this century. The market has had 50 declines of 10% or more. With 50 declines in 93 years, the market falls at least 10% about once every two years. We call that a 'correction' - a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. "Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 25% or more. That's known as a 'bear market.' We've had 15 declines of at least 25% in 93 years, so every six years, the market has a 25% decline." I will repeat that - "every six years, the market has a 25% decline"!!! Today we have tariffs headlines, AI bubble fears, recession whispers. When we get a 1 or 2% pull back everyone panics, imagine a 25% pullback! Can you hold (or buy more of) great companies when the screen bleeds red? Understand what you own, buy on weakness if the business is solid, and remember - corrections are sales on stocks you already love! Are you buying dips right now like Lynch would? , we got some big pullbacks recently - $INTC comes to mind. What's one stock you would keep adding to when this 25% pull back comes?

$RGTI shareholders down 61% from all-time high ($58.15 Oct 25) while $SPY is up over the same period. Quantum hype is dead!

$SPY is ripping higher, yet quantum sh*tco’s continue their collapse. $RGTI going sub $20 dollars very soon, remember this stock was over $58 just a couple of months ago. $IONQ, $QBTS https://t.co/NEiocsGG9M

我更倾向于一月28日黄金开始回调，spx开始涨。但正负一天也是很正常的。btw，对贵金属来说，这回调可能时间并不会很长。

所有不发股息不回购的股票不仅仅是0息资产，而且是负息资产。因为他还要增发股票做工资。

市场并不恐慌。 https://t.co/42SYifyBrA

What the spy 672.96 dark pool level

强调一下这个dip买了后，pump上去就要马上卖掉。有profit总比没有profit好。比如周一跌到盘尾3:30抄底。然后周二开盘pump到es6910过不了pivot，那就可以卖掉了。然后跌下来再抄底。这时候taco出现开始pump到es6940卖掉。跌下来再买回。es6970再卖掉。如果有大科技财报利好，第二天更要卖。

According to the playbook, I will buy the dip on and before Jan 28.

⚠️注意，大盘buy the dip zone可能在未来两到三天出现。而贵金属有短call的也要暂时止盈了（长期投资的除外）。

感觉以后周末要以hedge为主。周末都是灰犀牛黑天鹅，周中才有Taco吃。

Minneapolis又死一个，极端民意之际，中间的声音是不会有人听的 接着是鼓动大家general strike还是搞武装protest都不可知 任何高Beta投资都要非常谨慎。我只敢持跌不太动的大票，且即使如此我都觉得很不安

Cathie Wood may be right, deflation in 2026 ? https://t.co/WmkBakjbKt

本周末美国对伊朗动手的概率为 99%

No matter what happens, I still believe US exceptionalism.

The trend is going even more crazier beginning this year.

MARGIN DEBT JUST HIT ANOTHER RECORD $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $TLT $PLTR $PATH FINRA margin debt rose again in December, marking the 7th consecutive all-time high at $1.23 TRILLION. - +0.9% MoM - 8 straight monthly increases - +36.3% YoY Every major market peak of the last 25 years was preceded by exploding margin debt: • 2000 then the Dot-com crash • 2007 followed by the Global Financial Crisis • even the more recent 2021 to 2022 bear market Each time, leverage hit records… then snapped! Zoom out at the chart: Margin debt doesn’t roll over quietly, it collapses quickly. And when it does, forced selling accelerates it.. This is late-cycle behavior, which IMO is the stage we are at right now: - Investors chasing upside - Leverage replacing fundamentals - Risk priced as certainty Just look at some of the speculative sectors out there exploding in value over the last 12 months (quantum, AI, flying cars, nuclear etc) Margin debt is not a bullish signal at extremes, this is a warning and history shows it precedes a collapse. The unwind is always faster than the build up, this is exactly how crashes start! COMMON SENSE TIP - DO NOT USE LEVERAGE FOR TRADING!

小弟跟毒蛇堂堂主说，你要的货，我出清仓都能给你。但是现在扩产没钱怎么办？ 堂主表示你可以抬抬价，炒一下股票，找市场要 现在股票炒过头，把堂主的风头压过去了～ 大哥表示你适可而止哦

It makes perfect sense. $MU also trades at a huge premium compared to Samsung and SK Hynix. This is a clear case of 'American Exceptionalism' in the markets—US-listed assets simply command higher valuation multiples.

我觉着我这样教大家如何卖的，不多吧。明天咱们看blood bath啊！

You don’t want to hold calls when I sold all of them (for the broader market). Individual tickers may vary.

🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump on CNBC just now: • “We’re going to be at 5.5% growth.” • “We could be at 10%, 12%, even 15%.” • “For the last three months, inflation has been 1.2%.” Message is clear: inflation is gone, more rate cuts are coming this year - and Trump’s next Fed chair will make sure of it.

以前组团骂我的都是说我看空BTC、看多美股，组团让韭菜买INTC 现在他们一般在骂我什么？说我诈骗了50亿？还是说我沾花惹草？ 我把他们block了，看都不到

Common Sense Rules for your Personal Finances! 1. Savings is a solid foundation, but it's investing that truly builds your wealth. - You've seen it in action: parking money in a bank account might feel safe, but channeling it into smart investments, like diversified stocks or real estate leverages compounding to turn your efforts into lasting prosperity. - Don't just save; let your money work harder for you. I made 75% returns in 2025 - that has turbo charged reaching my goals! 2. Prioritize boosting your income over endless expense trimming. - As someone who embodies common-sense plays, you know cutting costs only goes so far. - Instead, invest time in upskilling, side ventures, or negotiating raises - it's the scalable path to financial freedom that aligns with your investor mindset! For me that was X as a side hustle, there is something out there for everyone - find yours! 3. Remember, your time is your most valuable asset - don't waste it on minor savings hunts. - Chasing every coupon or deal might save a few bucks, but as a savvy investor, calculate the opportunity cost: that hour could be better spent researching a stock pick or enjoying life outdoors or with your family, where every moment counts. 4. Resist the lure of a sale if it doesn't fit your needs. - You've likely dodged plenty of market hype; apply the same discipline here. Buying something discounted just because it's "a steal" clutters your life and drains resources - stick to purchases that genuinely add value to your goals. 5. No financial advisor knows your story like you do - own your path. - If you're even reading this it means you are already on the right path and have the needed independent streak, trust your gut: advisors offer tools, but you're the captain! - Educate yourself, review your portfolio regularly, and make decisions that reflect your unique situation and risk tolerance. 6. Once you've hit your core financial milestones, chase meaning over more money. - As an investor who's all about smart plays, recognize when enough is enough - extra wealth diminishes in joy if it costs family time, health, or passions. - Weigh what you're giving up for that next dollar, and prioritize a balanced life that sustains your success long-term. You've only one life, AIM HIGH!

这波JPY bear steepening带动大家一起steepen，利率可能拉个顶出来 但风险资产与债一起下跌，correlation很难维持的。一定程度必然会分化的，要担心股票有大幅调整，择机hedge利率吧

疯了疯了，毕其功于一役，要直接上5000吗

完了、完了～看多翻车了，你们别拿锤来黑我啊 我买一点跟大家一起亏 https://t.co/jZbcLdN5kb

买个swaption彩票吧 真的股市大跌，利率必然向下几十个bps走，而且现在vol也不高 https://t.co/BBhuUXYlSE

Yes this is another bomb. That’s why I am not able to determine whether Jan 20 is the bottom. There could be a c leg down into Fri or even the globex session on Sun. Geopolitics and yen’s problem are both negative this week….

由于马克龙公开说不加入Trump的和平董事会，Trump宣布对欧盟加征200%的葡萄酒关税。贸易争端正在加剧。

Supreme再一次没有给出关税的裁决。

就是这么准。三天前就预言一定破MA50，现在往MA100进军。

Long spy 673

TACO是必然的，但是这样的 $UVXY 表明市场已经要利用这波Catalyst大砸了。只能说暂避锋芒，寻找机会。 https://t.co/fQXF1rNH1L

Difficult to say. If we drop to spx6766 overnight, then a short-covering rally will happen when the cash market opens. We might have another leg down on Thursday per the playbook I shared.

For spy, once we cross 680, the next one is 672 or spx 6750-6766. We are at 681 now.

The more the merrier! Let the Spx fall!

有粉子问我比特币是否可以买。我想说的是，做spy，dia，amd远期期权可以有更好更高确定性的收入，我认为没有必要做crypto。

I think I missed this important part when I read this tweet 2 days ago: “is going to have an open, Greenspan-like mind” This sounds like Mr T &amp;B want a the next candidate can keep cutting rates /hold rate hikes even when the economy is expanding and booming :)

如果大盘拉太快，那可能只能拉到Feb 4-7就力竭，会再下去。然后再拉上来。我们边走边看。

多谢川总 给我的粉丝们下一个波段的入场点。Jan 20触底做多！

期货ES才跌0.6%，NQ才跌0.9%。 It does not look Panic. https://t.co/fQylgR9VU7

往远点看，如果Feb 20的Q4 2025的gdp达到5.5%。那么这天就应该mark了二月上升波段的结束。Feb 21 就应该是一个非常不错waterfall day。那我们就等一个日线级别的abc做完再进去抄底。底大约在Mar 3。你如果问我大盘会不会走一个wxy。也就是日线abc是w leg，这个现在还不知道🤷

每一个时间上的拐点都会有价格结构和事件来配合。我一直告诉你们Jan 20是个低点，所以不要太贪，要在Jan 20的前一周止盈。然后Jan 20站稳后重新入场。如果你不听我的，你只能在下一周勇敢做多把自己救出来。如果你是满仓，那你装死就好了。

你如果问让我rank从Jan 20到Feb 14-21这个波段的high confidence trades, 这是我的ranking: 1. Fxi, cqqq, 2. Amd. 3. Spx/spy. 都用apr otm call来做。就这些已经足够帮你double你的account了。如果你提早止盈了，再看看其他个股的机会。记住千万不要当韭菜，不要fomo。

我的感觉是，美国养得太肥了，欧洲太弱了。 两个实力差距太大的人，很难成为伙伴。 特别是没有什么共同相匹敌的对手的情况下。 欧洲只可能冷处理，就是一起来谈，先把关税拖住，然后就各种办法拖，拖到特朗普下台。只有这种可能性了。

Trump又开始捣乱，现在市场可能会被其行为严重干扰而下跌。

美国向欧洲在格陵兰上派兵的国家加征10%的关税，到六月份提高到25%。 老川发力，只有得到格陵兰才能完成北美补完计划。

spot也是Jan 20-29去找底，然后做周线反弹。

我的预测可能是错的。如果按我的预测出现均值回归，我认为这只是技术性的profit taking。I remain very bullish for the er season. 粉子们，你们听懂了吗？

Spx的MA50在Bollinger band下边沿的上面，所以我预测日线we go to MA100.

这个波段将于明日完美收官。Jan 2带着粉子们抄了spy 680 darkpool level的底。然后在上周三，周五带着大家止盈。周日再次提示周一可以买入。今天周四在下跌前提示不要追高半导体。我个人账户这个波段收入不错，所以我不贪，call全部平仓，等待下一个机会的到来。

WARREN BUFFETT'S APPROACH TO ENDING THE AMERICAN DEFICIT IN 5 MINUTES “Just pass a law that says, ‘Anytime there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for reelection.’” In 2025 - the U.S. ran about a $1.8 trillion budget deficit, roughly 5.8–5.9 % of GDP. Do you support this?

Machado把诺贝尔奖奖章present给Trump，结果Trump真的keep了这个奖章🎖️ 感觉有点掉价 for a US president

好的，总结一下这周的三个catalyst： 1. 关税非法 （延期） 2.台积电财报大飙升（正确） 3.特朗普进攻伊朗（取消，或者延迟） https://t.co/3sHrYdnS1T

粉子们 好话就说一遍 明天高点都给我减仓 贵金属除外

又可以多买一家套壳公司了🤤

Ok let’s wait and see what’d happen in the long weekend. Trump wants to minimize the impact to the US stock market and crude oil price

名义收入减少，通胀升温，但是由于投资过热，GDP还是上涨很多

The tension and potential action against Iran might happen in a week or so. This uncertainty is what causes the weakness in the market. The second-order effect is what would happen to China/US relations if Mr. T takes action on Iran with a regime change?

$5000 is coming

Never mind stocks or bitcoin. The greatest $25 investment in history. Young LeBron getting a basketball hoop for Christmas. He is now worth $1.3 billion. https://t.co/uT9hXlRQUw