Bought gld 6months and 1year calls at the opening. Looks good so far. Will fly to Hawaii tonight and stop trading for over a week for spring break. But set alerts to buy if SPX dipped to 6150-6300. Good luck folks!

日经 -0.43% 那spx接着下

My current view on the U.S. stock market: Geopolitics could get worse before it gets better—but I remain optimistic. Why downside risk still exists: Trump appears highly motivated to exit the war, but key uncertainties remain: the Strait is still closed, and enriched uranium destruction is unconfirmed. That leaves room for escalation scenarios—targeting power infrastructure, boots on the ground near Kharg Island, or even use of tactical nukes (e.g. B61 to bomb the underground facility) to force negotiations. As Bessent said: “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes” “Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.” Why I’m still optimistic: First let's check how the war impacts the markets: Oil ↑ → headline PCE ↑ → core PCE ↑ → fewer cuts / potential hikes → yields ↑ → PE multiples ↓ -> stock price ↓ So the two reasons I'm thinking it's still much better than 2022: 1. Nasdaq has already consolidated ~6 months while EPS surged → forward P/E reset near last year’s “Liberation Day” levels 2. Pre-Ukraine war PCE was ~7%; today ~2.8% → far less pressure for aggressive hikes vs 2022 So even a severe scenario likely < 2022 drawdown. And my estimates of the bear cases: Extremely bear case: QQQ ~ -10%(2022 level) Bear case: SPX ~6150, NDX ~22200 (Feb ’25 ATH zone) What's my strategy? Stay 20–25% invested (no leverage no margin). Holding $TQQQ / $MU / $SNDK. Double position at SPX 6150, and double again on either extreme downside(2022 case) or trend reversal (20EMA > 50EMA) after things settle down. Why still prefer storage names? Low PE multiple, trading ~5x ’26 EPS / ~3x ’27 EPS (per @FundaAI ).

日经指数再次出现超级大跌，开盘下跌超过3.5%。 不过 SPX保持了镇静，一般来说美股的韧性是要比其他市场的强很多。美股能上演上周一和上上周一奇迹般的反转吗？

DVOL 80%, spx 6500, qqq 580 First capitulation for a while since 10/10/2025 Start to buy TQQQ and MU now.

别说Nuke了，拖到June July SPX绝对守不住5000

CTA卖出这周量其实更大，SPX上280亿 vs 上周205亿。gamma position 盘口并没有改善，拉力再进一步提升 全球上个月卖800亿，这周700亿

RT @SubuTrade: Despite being within 5% an all-time high, the $SPX McClellan Oscillator is extremely oversold. This setup has occurred 10 t…

I hope $SPX can close at around 6720 and DVOL &gt; 90% today. Then it’s a bulls capitulation event and I can buy the dip

intc注意risk management。我这里看明天有risk。spx明早也可能垮掉。所以confluence告诉我不要贪心。

There is likelihood that spx bottoms tomorrow and rebound into Feb 18. So if you buy puts tomorrow, calculate the risk.

Not sure if this will happen because my system says the strike happens on Feb 16-18. However, my system also says spx tops on Wed, Feb 11. So plus minus one day is the window for derisking.

Difficult to say. If we drop to spx6766 overnight, then a short-covering rally will happen when the cash market opens. We might have another leg down on Thursday per the playbook I shared.

For spy, once we cross 680, the next one is 672 or spx 6750-6766. We are at 681 now.

大盘如果被打到6750附近，你觉着$amd会到哪里？我觉着直接跳水到200。下了200那就是super discount。庄家在拉升前的最后一次打压。$spx $amd

不负责任娱乐预测 明日spx小涨，周五大涨。下周大跌。