想依据消息面交易就是鬼扯。 今天这个Turboquant还有SpaceX 4月IPO的消息，要么是无根无据要么干脆就是假新闻。 结果存储大跌，火箭起飞。 $MU $SNDK $RKLB $FLY 所以市场对消息面的消化和解读，根本就是不能预测和判断的，除非已经看到了结果。

BTD yesterday and look good today. Also BTD on SNDK today. https://t.co/7ow5hu7kAo

Google Research发表的新论文TurboQuant是一种新的量化权重（更低保存精度）的技术，可能会极大减少AI推理中对内存的需求，该消息迫使存储股票 $MU $SNDK 大跌。 说实话这样的技术在顶会中是一个常被研究讨论的话题，所以不认为这真的会改变内存需求的基本面以及已经下的订单。

My current view on the U.S. stock market: Geopolitics could get worse before it gets better—but I remain optimistic. Why downside risk still exists: Trump appears highly motivated to exit the war, but key uncertainties remain: the Strait is still closed, and enriched uranium destruction is unconfirmed. That leaves room for escalation scenarios—targeting power infrastructure, boots on the ground near Kharg Island, or even use of tactical nukes (e.g. B61 to bomb the underground facility) to force negotiations. As Bessent said: “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes” “Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.” Why I’m still optimistic: First let's check how the war impacts the markets: Oil ↑ → headline PCE ↑ → core PCE ↑ → fewer cuts / potential hikes → yields ↑ → PE multiples ↓ -> stock price ↓ So the two reasons I'm thinking it's still much better than 2022: 1. Nasdaq has already consolidated ~6 months while EPS surged → forward P/E reset near last year’s “Liberation Day” levels 2. Pre-Ukraine war PCE was ~7%; today ~2.8% → far less pressure for aggressive hikes vs 2022 So even a severe scenario likely < 2022 drawdown. And my estimates of the bear cases: Extremely bear case: QQQ ~ -10%(2022 level) Bear case: SPX ~6150, NDX ~22200 (Feb ’25 ATH zone) What's my strategy? Stay 20–25% invested (no leverage no margin). Holding $TQQQ / $MU / $SNDK. Double position at SPX 6150, and double again on either extreme downside(2022 case) or trend reversal (20EMA > 50EMA) after things settle down. Why still prefer storage names? Low PE multiple, trading ~5x ’26 EPS / ~3x ’27 EPS (per @FundaAI ).

$SNDK 市值超过1000亿美元，做多期权总额超过1亿美元，这种盛况以前只在特斯拉上看到。

存储在回归，正如我之前说的GTC是内存的主场。 $EWY $MU $SNDK

这周GTC的演讲主题，将集中在内存与下一代GPU $INTC $MU $SNDK $NVDA $EWY

RT @jukan05: Do you think there will be any mention of SNDK at GTC? SNDK is looking very strong. My guess is… they might unveil an ICMS ra…

One of my rules I should have enforced this time but forgot: When VIX/COR1M is very high, cut any high-beta/high-vol names like $COHR, $LITE, $GLW, $SNDK. There’s nothing wrong with their fundamentals—they still have solid growth and great future potential. Just in a high-volatility environment, funds relentlessly deleverage those high-beta names. That’s why Master Irrational’s portfolio had a big drawdown this week. I have a trading account with $NVDA 2x, NVDA calls, and $USO calls, and last week was barely down. But account with high beta names also took a big loss.

RT @diyas_1989: nvda LPU sram fear on GTC may shake out crowded trade on sndk/mu/sk hynix and samsung. But definitely not end of cycle, bec…

RT @diyas_1989: done reading druckenmiller 13F 1. Sndk closed all solded 2. Buy back semi equipment 3. New position in Sic/GaN fabs basket…

$SNDK $NVO 均出现大量末日call。有大飙升的嫌疑🤔

I learned this month to use inverted scale charts to find short candidates, great tool for a perma-bull like me Examples: $IGV weekly "double bottom" $COIN daily "parabolic move with bull flag" like SNDK $PLTR daily "H&amp;S bottom" $XLF "downward channel &amp; 200d SMA breakout" https://t.co/uRG9Krq2Lr

究竟科技股谁在涨？ QQQ大涨，感觉什么股都在跌。 目前来看，芯片上游生产商表现要强很多，加密货币和软件回光返照，没想到他们能抵消M7几乎全部下跌带来的影响 $AMAT $SNDK $IGV

虽然 $SNDK 涨这么快这么多，但是空头仓位却反而越积越多。一句话就是 $SNDK 的情况和上周金银完全不同，不断的拉涨并没有把空头都给挤掉了，相反，燃料是越积越多，作为一个parabolic上涨的股票，这简直非常美妙。 https://t.co/6iLQ36GX3b

在今天大涨15%以后， $SNDK 的期权结构还是属于健康状态。并没有非理性的追高。 https://t.co/T6pOlfBF6T

没有必要做 $SNDK 的期权，因为和做他的双倍ETF差不多 $SNXX

明天最重要的财报不是 $AAPL 是 $SNDK

I enjoyed many big bull runs recently, but they all kept flying after I sold: Sold $SNDK at $400 Sold $AXTI at $21 Sold $SL at $95 Sold $GC at $4850 The only one I feel comfortable about is selling $LITE at $400, as it's way below now. I had my own approach of setting price targets based on fundamental valuation or technical analysis. One hard lesson for me is to always leave a runner for names with parabolic moves. In the future, I will probably buy OTM monthly calls, call spreads, or butterflies for runners in small positions but with big leverage.

$SNDK and $MU are insane again?

To spot a top in a parabolic stock, watch for IV hitting record highs while HV diverges lower. This divergence signals that extreme shifts in the Greeks have made option premiums too expensive relative to price movement, causing hedging flows to overwhelm speculative buying. $SNDK