石油美元的流入枯竭正使得美国债务危机进一步加深，两年期国债拍卖的认购倍数创2024年五月以来新低。 在国债拍卖中，如果普通投资者（如基金、散户或其他国家）不买，作为“保底买家”的一级交易商（大银行）就必须把剩下的债券全部买下来。交易商通常不希望在账面上留这么多头寸。如果他们被迫持有很多债券，说明市场真实需求非常匮乏，这通常会导致后续市场价格进一步下跌。 这迫使短债出现了一个垂直式的拉升，触及了 3.9463% 左右的高位。 随着霍尔木兹海峡危机加剧，海湾地区的石油美元流入美债市场的规模大幅萎缩，使得美国债务成本不断攀升。

美国财政部最近频繁回购国债。本周更是创纪录的回购了150亿美元，难道是美国有钱提前还债了吗？ 其实美国财政赤字依然在快速扩张，回购的主要原因是注入流动性，国债市场近期由于流动性不足，经常出现收益率飙升的情况，财政部通过回购不受欢迎的旧债帮助做市商筹措资本购买新债。 目前大量的资本都集中在短债，Tbill和现金，导致美元飙升，长债疲软。

Mind-blowing stat that's still 100% worth revisiting (and it's gotten even more extreme since) From 1926–2022: - Total of 28,114 U.S. public companies over that period - But just the Top 25 stocks accounted for 1/3 of ALL shareholder wealth created... that's 0.09% of the stocks! The big lesson: Stock market wealth is insanely concentrated. A tiny handful of superstar stocks create nearly all the gains - most stocks actually underperform safe Treasury bills over their lifetimes. Trying to pick the winners in advance is extremely hard (near impossible for most). The smart move: Diversify broadly so you own more of the market and capture those rare outliers without missing them. Otherwise invest in bonds and t-bills. Stunning graphic by@VisualCapResearch by Hendrik Bessembinder (@ASU) (Note: Recent tech gains have pushed top performers like Apple even higher since this data.)