伊朗宣布他们可能会攻击美国科技公司在海湾地区的基础设施。攻击包括 $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL 等的数据中心。想来海湾蹭低价能源，看来没那么简单。 这也体现了美国孤悬海外的稳定性，这也是为什么投资美国很昂贵。

ORCL现在这个价格远远没到证伪“负叙事” AI初期游戏就是收入增速 vs Capex增速 Orcl不愿意减capex做“逆向”的事。就要上调长期业绩指引。昨天大幅上调27年预期到90b才是催化剂，现在只能说有那么一小部分人开始有点相信Larry了 问我？我肯定相信啊，你们去看看卡的租金就知道了

仔细看了一下 $ORCL 的财报，没有太多超出预期的东西。3000亿美元的OpenAI订单还在继续履约，该怀疑的人还在怀疑，相信的人这个位置建仓也不错。总是150以下建仓应该是亏不了的。

$ORCL 大飙升，云收入飙升44%。高投入就有高产出，能带领 $IREN $CRWV 重振雄风吗？

OpenAI和 $ORCL 放弃了在德州建设数据中心的计划。 看来无限循环的融资走不下去了。 https://t.co/wkMEQRUWzO

OpenAI和 $ORCL 放弃了在德州建设数据中心的计划。

Morgan Stanley yesterday, Oracle today, who's next? The jobs market will collapse this year. $TLT

资助 $ORCL $META $CRWV 等数据中心业务的 $OWL Blue Owl有可能会破产（Gemini认为短期内概率不高），这可能会引起连锁反应。

Good news: big wins on these SaaS puts entered last Friday. Bad news: ORCL died as well. I think I should probably stay away from $ORCL—most trades since November ended up with losses 🤣 https://t.co/DndTQnQ4FL

OpenAI削减算力支出，从1.4万亿削减到6000亿，说实话，对很多公司是很不利的，尤其是 $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL $AMD 他们之中至少有50%的backlog不能履约，不知为何市场没有Priced in

I think $MSFT will likely be the first one to start the “Capex Recession” and bring the plague to $SMH. Why? 1. MSFT was the most reluctant to join the capex arms race and had multiple quarters of Azure growth misses due to “supply constraints.” 2. In podcasts, Satya has expressed confusion about why the market focuses so much on Azure growth instead of their progress in AI applications. 3. He also said MSFT should focus on the high-margin software business rather than the low-margin GPU rental business. 4. Satya is not the founder, so he doesn’t have the guts to ignore angry shareholders and steer the company however he wants. He can’t bear the failure of screwing up a $3T company, which would ruin his career and life. 5. Even in the AI cloud business, MSFT has no cost advantage over AWS and GCP. 6. $MSFT stock took the most damage recently alongside $ORCL In summary, I think $MSFT will very likely be the first to quit this arms race and embrace AI modeling and software business. When? I think once $MSFT dips below $340 (the level when the overall bull market started in 10/2023) and stays below it, the next earnings report will be when he announces this.

RT @ShanghaoJin: @XiaoZha62335239 短期二级市场继续要调整一下才健康，我是死多头哦 NV和orcl虽然都没问题，但是AI现在真正风口在头部labs AI已经从一个令人惊叹的技术，变成创造收入的收割机。这个过程中最能获得估值增长的就剩头部lab…

Matt Shumer's essay "Something Big Is Happening" is already playing out in the stock market - AI advancing rapidly and disrupting society like COVID - 95% of companies are potential shorts! $ACN, $DUOL, $CHGG, $COUR, $UPWK, $FVRR, $ORCL, $NOW, $APP, $PLTR, $INTU, $DDOG, $WDAY, $ADBE, $CRM, $MSFT, $AMZN, $ZEN AI is automating cognitive tasks like coding apps, legal briefs, and financial models, per recent models like GPT-5.3 and Claude Opus 4.6. Look how recent model advances are wiping out entire sectors and we are just getting started. Wall Street sees the writing on the wall: 1. Consulting giants like Accenture ( $ACN) down over 40%, Deloitte, and Bain face erosion as AI replaces human analysis. 2. Edtech: Duolingo ( $DUOL) down 90%, Chegg ( $CHGG) over 80%, Coursera ($COUR) 70%, with AI tutors obsoleting apps. 3. Freelance: Upwork ( $UPWK) and Fiverr ( $FVRR) tanked 60-75%, AI outpacing human bids. 4. Enterprise software: Oracle ( $ORCL) down 50%, ServiceNow ( $NOW) and AppLovin ( $APP) 40%, Palantir ( $PLTR) 27%, Intuit ( $INTU), Datadog ( $DDOG), Workday ( $WDAY) 20-40%. 5. Creative/marketing: Adobe ( $ADBE) and Salesforce ( $CRM) down 20%. 6. Big tech: Even Microsoft ( $MSFT) off 18%, expect more in legal, finance (e.g., JPMorgan analysts), customer service (Zendesk $ZEN down 30%), healthcare, and media. Per Anthropic's Dario Amodei, 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs gone in 1-5 years. The message is clear adapt (if you can) or perish! You need to reassess your portfolio is this light now!

Finally got my small joint account with my wife opened over $1M today, started with around $270K last August. There are 4 major trading themes for me in Feb: 1. Semi crowded long and potential crash post NVDA ER 2. IGV rebounce, I'm trading $ORCL/$MSFT/$MDB/$DOCN 3. Long Japan, Nikkei to 60000? 4. Chinese lunar new year trade, buy any dips in gold/silver/copper/hstech before it and sell post it.

跌了敢买，买了敢拿～～ 为什么CapEX被惩罚那么厉害，所有Hyperscaler如Orcl还要继续？ 因为他们知道AI不是取代saas，而是取代30%的7亿脑力劳动者 而今天这几千亿，就好像玩大富翁时候“买地”，找银行借、把卡片卖了也要上。不会有人蠢到拿到NV卡配额不要的 ps 刚刚66,306再买了BTC

增发250亿，用现在的市值计算不就是稀释6%左右，这两天也就跌了6%，我看市场根本没悲观。反而是看起来像有人故意在支撑甚至拉起 $ORCL 的股价。应该是在寻找bag holder.

要做空的人应该做身处于舆论漩涡，并且在大盘大涨的情况下还能继续跌的，例如 $MSFT $ORCL $NFLX … $TSLA 就不要了，万一真合并了，可能就拉爆了。

我就说看到 $ORCL 这个反弹冲进去抓的人，在庄家眼中你就是这个： https://t.co/bRz97luOoh

我的想法是，这个消息面我的解读是错的。其实 $ORCL 并不是继续再借500亿美元，而是对过去借的这500亿美元进行解释。所以这是一个相对来说positive的catalyst而不是我刚开始觉得进一步加大出债务的catalyst.

🤔诶，为什么 $ORCL 逆天翻盘了？

我不敢想 $ORCL 的股价明天会有多美… 这样的新闻出来，明天可能会大砸10%以上。

20bil ATM发股票！ 算力短缺共识如此确定之际，其实最大风险反而是几个CapEx巨头被CDS、财务问题挤压，被迫减少CapEX 这样单个公司会让出GPU份额永远掉队，行业也会被短期质疑下跌 Orcl要all in“看看究竟谁是真傻逼”。反正有卡份额不买必死无疑，冲不过去就早死早超生呗 https://t.co/JwyAJEhuTz

这并不是他保证的问题： OpenAI倒闭可能会同时导致Microsoft、ORCL倒闭，这些云计算倒闭可能会导致NVDA倒闭，然后整个科技行业倒一大片。也就是OpenAI可能已经大而不倒了。他是整个AI经济中核心的一环。

初步诊断是Bibi似乎给Trump下了进攻Iran的命令，但是沙特在斡旋。 还有就是 $MSFT 云的backlog里面过半来自OpenAI，拖垮了云计算板块。 其实除非云厂商自己做AI，做AI云基本没有门槛，$MSFT $AMZN $GOOG 的云业务，本质和 $ORCL $CRWV 没有分别。

$AAOI has a weekly cup and handle. If their management could deliver what they committed, this would be the cheapest optical play. @insane_analyst had a great coverage about it https://t.co/EEriCAN9c4 Will keep watching the price action and the progress towards 1.6T and the deployment in AMZN/ORCL before jumping in.

$ORCL is still questionable.