$META 下一个5年上涨到9万亿美元总市值也就是翻6倍应该是很困难的。过去5年超级大放水才涨了110%，要再上演一次从80到800的超级大逆袭才可以。 $NVDA 是很可能的， $META 主要是感觉有点逆风。要有很颠覆性的叙事突破。 https://t.co/V6E7gsJpEQ

本周五 $NVDA max pain为$177.5

Trump准备建立一刻包含Zuck, Jensen, Larry的科技委员会，专注于AI政策的制定。 一人10亿美元的会费是跑不了了，Trump终生会长。

虽然Jensen说公司不该裁员，而应该扩张公司业务，让相同多的人做更多的事情。然而，英伟达可能是大公司里最特别的，由于市值上升得太快，这个4.5万亿美元的公司，只有区区3万名员工。

$SMCI 联合创始人因为大量走私英伟达芯片到中国而被起诉。

周五的 $NVDA 的max pain居然是170🌚 https://t.co/togYwmPkTj

$MU的财报极其强力，股票却下跌了。 现在$MU 的gross margin比 $NVDA 还高。

中国授权 $NVDA的H200销售。 这都不涨吗？🦆🦆

RT @insane_analyst: **Incrimental** opinion based on OFC so far. For example, Nvidia showed nothing new so neutral even though recent ISSCC…

整个美股市场上最魔幻的两个股票 $NVDA $TSLA

$NVDA 正在为中国重启H200 的生产。

？为何 $AMZN 喊一嗓子有用， $NVDA喊一嗓子没用？ 不都是画大饼

$NVDA 暗示将进行巨额的回购，约50%的现金流。 一个有将有巨额分红和回购的成长股🤤

老黄应该叫Santa Jensen

这次GTC没有太大的惊喜，基本是预计内的事情，交易的结果小赚也不错。但有一个有趣的观察： Jensen说出1万亿美元营收的时候，可以观察到监控消息面的量化交易机构在这3分钟，几乎是加注了1000万股 $NVDA的交易量，大约18亿美元，这一瞬间推高了5美元约2.7%，增加1200亿美元 $NVDA 的市值。 按照这么计算，那么实际的交易资本和市值之间的关系就是1200/18=66 也就是股市市值的1/66是可以真实直接提现的现金。

曾经有一个时间，英伟达的股价是0.03 https://t.co/IV2noG5pxJ

$NVDA 将和大量中国电车厂商合作自动驾驶。

Before and after DLSS5 https://t.co/XF7pYSd7yB

强如英伟达，金手指也点不动迪士尼 $DIS

For people like me it’s “sell the news” event, I was following and part of the sell off on LITE/NVDA/VRT/INTC. It’s not about bullish or bearish, it’s just because I need more time to research and digest what Jensen said to understand which ones to buy back I guess this market is full of pods thinking in the same way as me.

Nvidia CEO sees 2027 as at least one trillion dollars of revenue. $NVDA $NVDA大飙升

$NVDA Jensen’s keynote 11:00 am PST

RT @mingchikuo: Nvidia LPU/LPX racks set for order-of-magnitude growth: application trends, ecosystem integration, and a new PCB cycle 1.…

这周GTC的演讲主题，将集中在内存与下一代GPU $INTC $MU $SNDK $NVDA $EWY

RT @TBU12345678: $NVDA GTC predictions: - average investor still won’t learn what CPO is or what it means - Jensen tries to pump his stock…

GTC is coming! $NVDA （Don’t sell the news before I sell 😭）

RT @ShanghaoJin: @bboczeng HBM为啥缺货，老黄把产能锁定了呗 存储一样很贵

$NVDA 将推出Groq芯片，完全颠覆定制芯片市场，成为最强Inference芯片。

Rubin已经发往各大主要客户进行提前预装， $NVDA 涨一涨吧😭

今天 $NVDA 的max pain是182.5，而且185的wall特别厚，所以开盘应该溜溜球，后续回补的。 看下周吧，天命不在我啊😭 https://t.co/ErGadgTm2U

中美本周末将在巴黎谈判商定双方领导人在北京见面时签署的条款。 预计将涉及关税、台湾、投资以及芯片出口。 $NVDA $BABA $AMD $TSM

GPU将销往中国！ $NVDA 至少在GTC和中美会谈中都有好的catalyst

$NVDA 有龙气🐉 还有4天GTC

私募、GPU与石油：华尔街正酝酿一场比2008年更猛烈的风暴 历史不会简单重复，但总是踏着相同的韵脚。 回想2008年的前夕，全世界都在盯着逼近150美元的飙升油价，哀叹通胀。几乎没人注意到，在华尔街幽暗的管道里，次级房贷的毒血已经流满了一地。 把时间拨回今天。油价极有可能再次向150美元发起冲锋，各大媒体的头条全被“AI革命”和英伟达的新高占据。但在聚光灯照不到的阴影里，一个体量高达2万亿美元、比当年次贷还要庞大的巨兽——私募信贷（Private Credit），正在显现断裂的迹象。 在零利率狂欢的年代，传统银行不敢接的烂摊子，全被私募信贷接走了。他们把钱借给负债累累的中小企业和尚未盈利的AI初创公司。如今，如果高昂的油价锁死了通胀，迫使美联储无法继续降息。在这场漫长的高息里，那些背负着“浮动利率”的借款人，现金流正在被彻底抽干，违约只是时间问题。 比违约更恐怖的，是底层的抵押物。 过去几年，是谁在为疯狂的AI算力军备竞赛买单？是类似于Blue Owl, 贝莱德和黑石的私募信贷。令人毛骨悚然的是，机构们竟然接受了用英伟达的GPU作为贷款抵押物。 2008年，次贷的底层好歹是不会长脚跑掉的房子和土地；而今天，算力芯片的摩尔定律就是最无情的镰刀。随着英伟达新一代芯片的推出，上一代GPU的价值一夜之间断崖式暴跌。一旦AI应用端无法变现，企业断供，私募大佬们去清算资产时只会绝望地发现——金库里装的根本不是什么硬通货，而是一堆极速贬值的“电子废品”。 私募信贷是一个不用市值计价的“盲盒”。只要底层的AI公司还在用借新还旧的把戏苟延残喘，账面上的收益依然光鲜亮丽。 但纸包不住火。当抵押物归零、真实坏账再也掩盖不住时，那些真正出钱的养老金和主权基金会瞬间清醒，疯狂要求赎回。 然而，私募贷款是不流通的。卖不掉，逃不出，大门一关，一场史诗级的流动性挤兑潮就会在影子银行系统内彻底爆发。 2008年，是脱衣舞娘还不上房贷，引爆了全球金融海啸； 今天，是烧光了钱的AI公司，还不死机房里的算力贷款。 炸药桶已经就位，英伟达的迭代敲响了丧钟，而如今的石油，可能正冷冷地焊死最后一扇逃生的门。 风暴，就要来了。

氦气（Helium）是霍尔木兹海峡一旦封锁，对全球芯片制造业最直接、最致命的“卡脖子”威胁之一。霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能导致全球约30%的半导体产能中断。 $TSM $NVDA (推文后面有氦气概念股） 很多人认为氦气只用来充气球，但在半导体行业，它是不可或缺的“血液”。霍尔木兹海峡与氦气之所以产生强关联，主要基于以下几个核心原因： 1. 卡塔尔是全球氦气的核心供应商 氦气在地球上非常稀缺，它主要是开采天然气时的副产品。卡塔尔（Qatar）是全球第二大氦气生产国（仅次于美国），供应了全球约 20% 到 30% 的氦气。 关键在于地理位置：卡塔尔位于波斯湾内，它出口的液态氦气必须装在特殊的低温集装箱船中，而这些船只驶向全球（尤其是亚洲的芯片制造中心）的唯一出口，就是霍尔木兹海峡。 一旦海峡被封锁，全球近三分之一的氦气供应将瞬间断裂。 2. 氦气在芯片制造中“不可替代” 在先进芯片制造过程中，氦气没有任何经济且有效的替代品，它的作用极其关键： • 极致的冷却剂： 芯片制造中的“等离子蚀刻”等工艺会产生极高的温度。氦气导热性极佳且化学性质完全惰性，被大量用来在背面冷却晶圆，防止娇贵的硅片被高温烧毁。 • 清洗与运载气体： 在沉积工艺（将材料一层层铺在晶圆上）中，氦气常被用作运载气体，带着化学物质进入反应腔，同时保证环境的绝对纯净。 • 高精度的真空检漏： 先进光刻机（如ASML的EUV光刻机）和各种制造设备需要在极限真空下工作。因为氦气分子极小且惰性，它是用来检测设备微小泄漏的最佳（也是唯一标准）气体。 3. 氦气供应链极度脆弱（难以储存） 与石油或天然气不同，氦气极难长期储存。它很容易挥发，且液化需要极低的温度（-269℃）。 • 芯片制造厂（晶圆厂）通常只能维持几周的氦气库存。 • 一旦霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致卡塔尔的船只无法驶出，全球氦气价格将立刻呈指数级飙升。几周后，当台湾、韩国、日本和美国的芯片厂耗尽库存时，即使有电、有光刻胶，生产线也必须被迫全面停机。 总结来说，如果说能源涨价是对芯片制造业的“慢性放血”，那么霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致的氦气断供，就是直接切断了芯片厂的“大动脉”。这会引发比2021年更为严重的全球芯片断供危机。 氦气概念股（A股为主，半导体供应链相关）： - 杭氧股份(002430)：氦气全产业链，提纯+装备龙头 - 金宏气体(688106)：电子级氦气，半导体客户覆盖广 - 侨源股份(301286)：高纯气体贸易+生产 - 广钢气体(688548)：供应链稳定，航天/半导体供货 - 九丰能源(605090)：LNG提氦，海南航天相关 美股：Linde(LIN)、Air Products(APD)全球大厂，或从卡塔尔断供中受益。 霍尔木兹风险下，美国/中国本土产能更具弹性。非投资建议，仅参考，股市有风险。

$NVDA 投资 $NBIS 20亿美元， $NBIS 大涨15% 🤤 $NVDA 变身点金手，循环融资美滋滋🥵

RT @jukan05: Some sell-side analysts are expecting that NVIDIA may unveil an x86 CPU developed in collaboration with Intel at GTC 2026. I…

$NVDA 有龙气🐉

很难想象期权市场完全没有理会GTC， $NVDA 的IV随着大市这两天大跌，不得load up一堆call🤤

NVIDIA GTC 2026 (英伟达 GTC 大会) • 时间： 2026年3月16日 - 19日 • 地点： 加州圣何塞 (San Jose) 及线上 • 核心看点： 这无疑是本月最核心的硬核科技盛会。今年的 GTC 将重点聚焦物理 AI (Physical AI)、AI 工厂、智能体 AI (Agentic AI) 以及下一代仿真技术。你可以期待 NVIDIA 在 GPU 架构、加速计算平台以及机器人领域的最新软硬件重磅

今天晚上有 $TSM 的二月报告，嗦了点 $NVDA $TSM 应该是一些常规的增产进度，以及安抚股东。如果能披露一些Rubin的进度就更好了。

One of my rules I should have enforced this time but forgot: When VIX/COR1M is very high, cut any high-beta/high-vol names like $COHR, $LITE, $GLW, $SNDK. There’s nothing wrong with their fundamentals—they still have solid growth and great future potential. Just in a high-volatility environment, funds relentlessly deleverage those high-beta names. That’s why Master Irrational’s portfolio had a big drawdown this week. I have a trading account with $NVDA 2x, NVDA calls, and $USO calls, and last week was barely down. But account with high beta names also took a big loss.

最近的HV大大低于IV的期权pattern其实揭示日间的波动远小于日内的波动。 也就是日内的波动通常很大，但是最终必定会收窄。 这种情况最好的话就是不要随便止损。设定好价格目标，控制投入。因为现在的波动很大，很不可预测。 我猜测明天 $NVDA 还是可以到185 https://t.co/2LrmDsvM2C

美国政府决定对芯片出口进行进一步管制 $NVDA $AMD 未来可能只有持有牌照的license的单位可以进口 GPU

本周五 $NVDA max pain是185，而且从布林道下轨反弹，感觉下周很有机会恢复到190以上。 https://t.co/7yDv1nrP0b

1. 要成为NV供货商 2. AAPL投资 3. 帮AAPL流片 4. 着力packaging，可能还有并购案 总之，INTC是个今年业绩一大坨，但是叙事、消息极硬的票 主要后面几年业绩数字真能起来，今年避下业绩吧。当然长期持有的不用看价格，把IB删了

$AVGO 只剩下他们CEO那张嘴了。 和 $NVDA 的财报比真是丑小鸭和白天鹅的区别。

我觉得战事还是会往乐观的方向发展。 主要是伊朗可能有很多导弹，但是他们的导弹车很可能很快就会被美以炸光，再加上间谍那些，导弹车并不容易隐藏。 但是主要要预防Trump经常出来放狠话，会很大的影响市场情绪。 希望的话是霍尔木兹海峡尽快恢复通航，以及伊朗不要攻击石油基础设施。 我觉得抄底的话，可以优先取 $EWY 和 $TSM $NVDA 来准备GTC

RT @StockMKTNewz: Nvidia $NVDA announced that its annual GTC event will take place on March 16th-19th Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will delive…

RT @ShanghaoJin: @frankyluan 腰斩优先买光模块、其次存储 不腰斩买intc和nv

Good news: loaded lots of NVDA on Friday as planed. Bad news: only 50% of the intended positions was added. Anyway, no regret, patience is the key. Will only add if lower than my Friday’s entry price

现在打仗、指数position差、机构都在逃跑，全都是做空的理由 然而明年这个时候，你会说当时NV可是低于180，我实在没敢买 有一天，当大家认识到哪怕capex增速下降，NV 27年业绩也没啥影响的时候。他们会疯掉

我这几天也在反思中 3月16日NV大概率还要出个X86架构的CPU

RT @diyas_1989: nvda LPU sram fear on GTC may shake out crowded trade on sndk/mu/sk hynix and samsung. But definitely not end of cycle, bec…

Has Martin lost his touch? $NVDA "That's gotta go to $210" Nvidia closed down 5.5% today to $184. https://t.co/ujDAmX6pdx

RT @aleabitoreddit: $NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B. The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings. Con…

Theme 1: Semi-crowded long and potential crash post-NVDA ER Will wait until Monday for things to calm down, then load up heavily on $NVDA. This was a perfect ER—just a profit-taking moment for semi crowded long.

RT @ResearchQf: 1) $NVDA so far decent but earnings call, as usual, will be critical. - Apr Q $78B vs $72.7B cons and ~$75B +/- bogeys - J…

用 $TSM $INTC $ASML 侧击 $NVDA 🤤

2/25出了 $NVDA 还有 $CRM 也财报。 可以用 $MSFT 侧击

RT @yao30059829: 做了一张表研究NVDA营收与五大科技资本支出的关系。时间统一标识为自然年了，NVDA、MSFT的财年与自然年有1个月的错位，其他都能对的上。 C列里的d与f，等于23Q1的D与F，因为23Q1是NVDA营收爆发前最后一个季度，所以我把这视为对比…

RT @stevehou: Can confirm. H100/A100 rental prices are going up acc to numbers from @Silicon_Data! The reversal and rise seem to have coinc…

今天不跌的 就是过几天要涨的。 $AAPL $GOOG $NVDA

下周做 $NVDA 财报，直接 $MU 或者 $TSM 侧击。 Bull spread美滋滋。

我觉得AI泡沫的第一次破裂，应该发生在2027年的年中左右 届时 $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META 可能会下跌50%左右 在此之前是安全的 时间是按照B300全面量产半年以后，H100-H200系列芯片80%折旧以后，至少有两个季度，云计算厂商会出现折旧亏损推算的 B系列全面量产以后H系列已经没有一秒运行的价值，届时他们将在市场抛售，价值近乎归零。

这是一个很严重的问题 H100老显卡的价格目前来说，其实是在13000美元左右，大约是全新的一半。虽然没有这位说的那么夸张，但是很多因素，每年硬件的折旧依然有50% 这件事情在 $NVDA 全面铺开B系列的销售，以及电能价格进一步上涨时就会全面在市场发酵 因为届时仍然让这些老旧芯片多运行1秒，都是在亏钱 这是一个2月前的故事，却不是鬼故事，而是三大云厂商迟早要说的真故事

OpenAI削减算力支出，从1.4万亿削减到6000亿，说实话，对很多公司是很不利的，尤其是 $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL $AMD 他们之中至少有50%的backlog不能履约，不知为何市场没有Priced in

下个星期有很重要的财报 $NVDA 以及三月白银交割，下周金属会比较疯狂。 怀疑要求实物交割的比例会创下记录，which is bullish

MUST WATCH FOR EVERYONE IN THE STOCK MARKET! Retail investors will always be misled by hedge-fund billionaires. $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN , $LAES , $BTC , $BTQ , $JOBY , $OPEN , $META , $NVDA , $GOOG This is why you should never rely on CNBC hedge-fund billionaires when they give highly public interviews to an audience of millions. At the very height of the stock market bubble for hype industries like Quantum / Nuclear / AI etc , Paul Tudor Jones went on Squawk Box claiming it “feels like 1999” and that the rally would continue through year-end. His Key Insights: - "The biggest winners are Gold and Bitcoin"... "there is a Morgan Stanley basket, that is a Retail flow basket that has all the meme stocks in it, it's up 67% or 68%" - "I'd want to have positions in all of that, FOR SURE" - referring to the meme-stock basket containing bubble names like $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN, etc. - "What will be the winners, we have this race which is certainly to the end of the year" - "I'd want to have combination of Gold, Crypto, the Nasdaq, and whatever the fastest horse at this point in time probably has a good chance of having that on December 31" Summary: 1. He was telling retail investors to keep holding and buying the meme-stock craze, gold, and crypto. 2. Since that interview three weeks ago: - $BTC has dropped 50% - Popular retail-style meme stocks have dropped 50 to 70%+ (e.g., $IONQ, $RGTI, $BTW, $OKLO) 3. He effectively pumped these names to provide exit liquidity for institutions and Wall Street - the same pattern every time. 4. Never rely on interviews from hedge-fund CEOs or billionaires proclaiming broad market predictions like this. 5. They have their own motives. They are not looking out for your portfolio. 6. Do your own due diligence - see through the hype narrative being sold to you.

RT @diyas_1989: I heard some progress of groq and nvda, CIM is near

MAX PAIN 对 $NVDA 可以说是精准控制了。近期是这样，但不总是这样子。用Agent的好处就是可以不断查看近期哪些策略持续发挥作用。

段永平的持仓。我觉得他的持仓思路主要是想追AI的风口。很多人以为现在买 $NVDA $TSM 过时了，恰恰相反，芯片制造依然如火如荼，只是不同芯片板块的发力幅度不一样。个人觉得他对 $NVDA $TSM 的决定性加仓还是非常有魄力的。 至于 $ASML 虽然错过了，但是整体思路对于大基金的投资来说依然是风向标的正确。

You’ll never see Jensen Huang anywhere near the Epstein files. He is someone shaped by his roots - an immigrant who came to the U.S., put himself through engineering school, and built a company from nothing into one of the most valuable in the world. Power and money didn’t change him. He still feels like the same builder at heart.

其实前段时间我说的 $NVDA 的秘密就是按照 MAX PAIN来给他下蝶子，想试的同学也可以试一下，就是别梭太狠了。

$NVDA Rubin的发货时间可能提前3-6个月。

$NVDA 和 $META 合作，出现暴涨，看起来像内幕哦😲

Just posted my latest stock review and new position in my sub. $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN It's up over 3% today alone while the rest of the market is down. Subscribe for full portfolio, live trade alerts and DM access. Can you guess which stock?

RT @ShanghaoJin: @XiaoZha62335239 短期二级市场继续要调整一下才健康，我是死多头哦 NV和orcl虽然都没问题，但是AI现在真正风口在头部labs AI已经从一个令人惊叹的技术，变成创造收入的收割机。这个过程中最能获得估值增长的就剩头部lab…

Retail Is Concentrated - And It’s Mostly Risk‑On. They are not positioned for what's coming! Some of the top Retail concentrations: - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY - $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO - $CRWV - $MSTR - $COIN What stands out Strong risk‑on tilt: - Crypto/BTC proxies (IREN, GLXY, COIN, MSTR, IBIT + miners) and AI/infra momentum (NVDA, AVGO, CRWV, PLTR). Only a small defensive/cash anchor allocation: SGOV/VTI/VOO/VUG are in the list but much further down. Takeaway: Retail looks growth‑heavy, crypto‑tilted, momentum‑driven. They are not prepared for what's coming!

DON'T DAY-TRADE, HERE IS WHY! $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $TLT $PLTR $PATH $HOOD Robinhood users' trading profits/losses by quarter (in billions) - mostly losses. Biggest wins: +$35B and +$34B in meme stock frenzies (think AI, Quantum, Tech stocks). Biggest losses: -$34B, -$33B, -$25B when things cooled off. Over 6 years, the red bars far outnumber the green ones. Studies show 80-97% of day traders lose money long-term. Robinhood makes money on every trade - win or lose, the don't care if you are profitable Common sense truth: Day trading is gambling. Long-term investing in good companies is how most people build wealth. Don’t trade your future away, instead invest it.

10 months to go until $IONQ "wipe the floor" with NVIDIA. LOL Generational grifting, still a generational short opportunity!

Your favorite stock doesn't know you exist - and it sure as hell won't thank you for defending it on X. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $PLTR $PATH $TSLA I've been there: rooting for a name like it's on my team, tying my identity to it, scrolling on X for confirmation bias every dip. It clouds everything in your mind. Suddenly you're not investing - you're in a relationship. Common sense investing means staying brutally objective. See the company for what it actually is today based on fundamentals, not what you wish it still was. No tribalism, no team loyalty, no ego in the portfolio. The market doesn't care. The moment the risk/reward flips against you or your thesis changes I'm out- no matter how much I've praised it, how long I've held it, or how many times I've called it a high conviction pick. Always be prepared to change course. I've sold forever holdings when my thesis changed. New direction, management, failed tech development, missed earnings etc. That's not disloyalty, that's been disciplined as an investor. Detach your identity from any single ticker. Your job is to make money, not to marry a stock. What's one position you know you should probably cut but haven't yet? Be honest in the replies!

TSMC $TSM 释放了更多 CoWoS 产能规划（从月产 10 万片上调至 13-14 万片） 这些新增的产能已经全部被 $NVDA $GOOG $AMD 瓜分干净。

Finally got my small joint account with my wife opened over $1M today, started with around $270K last August. There are 4 major trading themes for me in Feb: 1. Semi crowded long and potential crash post NVDA ER 2. IGV rebounce, I'm trading $ORCL/$MSFT/$MDB/$DOCN 3. Long Japan, Nikkei to 60000? 4. Chinese lunar new year trade, buy any dips in gold/silver/copper/hstech before it and sell post it.

How do you them apples～～ 雷总听一脸鄙夷地听完奉承，最后也没把单给NV，Jensen为此差点破产 曾几何时，总觉得世界就该围着中国市场、围着自己转？ 想不到吧。人家现在动根手指就把存储订完。你有钱也买不到，车和手机全出不了货

Just spent my Saturday morning watching one of my all-time favorite Warren Buffett talks: His 2003 lecture at the University of Nebraska. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $PLTR $PATH $TSLA Pure gold more common sense investing & life wisdom than 90% of books out there. Key gems: - Accounting is the language of business, - integrity > intelligence + energy, - the 'Newspaper Test' for decisions, - reputation takes years to build/minutes to lose, and - why character trumps everything when picking partners/leaders. Just over 60 minutes long, but worth every second. It's the perfect weekend for it! Bookmark, Listen and re-listen!

不知道他们能不能赚4倍，我老黄先赚4倍

US Hyperscaler CAPEX is going parabolic. At this speed, total CAPEX will hit $4 Trillion by 2030. The hyper-bull case for $NVDA: If every $1 of CAPEX translates to $0.75 of Nvidia revenue: • Revenue: Hits $3 Trillion. • Profit: ~$2.25 Trillion (More than $MSFT $GOOG $META $AMZN combined). • Valuation: At 40x P/E, $NVDA becomes a $90 Trillion company. That is 2x the entire estimated US GDP for 2030. 🤯🐂 That is a 20x opportunity in next 5 years.

嘿嘿，我发现了 $NVDA 的一个秘密。 https://t.co/lVoLpJIEaT

正在用生命Pump巨硬，车上的人速开点赞！#MSFT $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $AAPL $NVDA

Big win today. Semi's narrative got strongly reinforced in the MAG7 ER. It's acting like a safe haven now, despite big sell pressure this week. I'd expect this sector to get even more crowded than before until NVDA ER. I will definitely take profits aggressively before it to avoid the risk.

我就说这个Capex会让 $NVDA 和 $MRVL 大涨。

战略就是调配资源，AI战国争雄的资源就是卡，比谁把“资源”（卡）用在刀刃上了 个人觉得Xai走快速部署大集群算力能力的路径可能更好，无奈他买不到那么多NV卡。有资源的相比我对Oai Anthropic比goog更有信心一点 但模型大战千变万化，谁胜出，内行、参战的都不知道，我这外行只能说“资源”不过时

跌了敢买，买了敢拿～～ 为什么CapEX被惩罚那么厉害，所有Hyperscaler如Orcl还要继续？ 因为他们知道AI不是取代saas，而是取代30%的7亿脑力劳动者 而今天这几千亿，就好像玩大富翁时候“买地”，找银行借、把卡片卖了也要上。不会有人蠢到拿到NV卡配额不要的 ps 刚刚66,306再买了BTC

1. 指数跌的时候大家会无视叙事 2. Goog未来负叙事将是用TPU比NV在大集群训练劣势 当B系列卡的模型出来的时候，发现Genimi也就这样 接着会讨论TPU performance/w的问题，不适合军备竞赛 这时候+ Goog - OAI trade可能平仓 我不是Fud，自己大量极低成本的Goog储蓄从来不卖。持有无所谓这些周期的

三大云厂商已经进入养蛊阶段了。全面杀疯， $MSFT 1000亿， $AMZN 2000亿 $GOOG 1800亿， $META 1300亿，总计6000亿美元。 仅仅着四家公司的基础设施投入就将拉高美国2%的GPD。比过去数年的GDP增长还高。 为什么 $NVDA等芯片板块没有拉涨，因为市场害怕这些巨头烧钱抢客户的速度实在太快了。如果最终血本无归，他们将遭受前所未有重创。不再有资本对下一代的机会进行投资，同时将背上巨额债务。 2026年，硅谷可能将面临有史以来最狂暴的裁员潮。这些资金将疯狂涌入 $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $SNDK …

$AMZN 预计将拿出比 $GOOG 还大的 CAPEX $NVDA $MRVL

Gladly, I sold all of my semi puts yesterday. Semiconductors are the strongest sector in the market today after Google's explosive capex increase announced in yesterday's earnings report. I'm starting to add back my semi positions and only added the ones still performing strongly today. Will add more if NQ slides to 24000: https://t.co/Y96cv5RiVk I don't see any fundamental or macro weakness for semis. Will hold until NVDA's earnings to cut. NFA.

$AMD 的这个财报是Okay的，全部都beat了，主要是期望太高了，尤其是Guide，市场期望更激进的指引。目前的增速连 $NVDA 都赶不上，确实会有一些情绪面上的打击。 $AMD 和 $INTC 都给出了比较保守的指引。$INTC 后来反弹了，$AMD 有机会吗？

根据我的调查，我认为 $MSFT 和 $NVDA 正在形成机会。

最近有关OAI和NV的报道完全都是nonsense 首先对于100吧MOU最初的报道就是失实的，后面几次追问黄仁勋一定要“造个大新闻”，put words in his mouth 设身处地，去听一听原视频，你是黄仁勋人家OAI份额还没定，也就能说什么这些吧 还有什么OAI不满NV卡，难道用华为？ 现在理解Trump为什么说fake media

$NVDA has to do this. 否则这个套圈游戏无法形成一个闭环。

他们担心OAI没拿到NV钱 其实比左脚踩右脚，华尔街更担心的是你们片都不想骗我了 不用太担心，这些都是真的，token需求、算力芯片供应长期严重紧缺

这并不是他保证的问题： OpenAI倒闭可能会同时导致Microsoft、ORCL倒闭，这些云计算倒闭可能会导致NVDA倒闭，然后整个科技行业倒一大片。也就是OpenAI可能已经大而不倒了。他是整个AI经济中核心的一环。

I think this MSFT ER is actually positive for AWS/GCP. A had great DC expansion confirmed in the last ER. So less supply contraint. G have pretty powerful TPUs, so less reliance on NVDA Blackwell. I'm holding AMZN/GOOG (G's TP $330/$360), but I'd not bet on any ER.

$NVDA Jensen没有白跑一趟

别拿这个嘲笑我，我怎么知道他们把28年的预期拿出来都能炒一下 而且还远没到我卖的价格呢 我觉得INTC今年earning很难支撑年初55的。CPU和内存不同，内存是“商品”，买了囤货后年都能卖。他只能慢牛不能爆涨 在上周那个时点INTC胜率、风险收益比上不NVDA和MSFT 投资随缘的，等到买；等不到下一个

NVDA年底就占CPU出货量的20%了 短期是不是压着不涨，其实无所谓的。要知道，市场总归会往“信”或者“不信”的路上做一个最终选择

MICROSOFT UNVEILS LATEST AI CHIP TO REDUCE RELIANCE ON NVIDIA $MSFT $NVDA

为什么大家只看到H100租金在涨？因为新的根本没市场，全被包圆了。能租到H100就不错了 你们确定还敢用旧卡折价逻辑继续做空云厂吗，good luck ～～Michael Burry

MY 25 FAVORITE INVESTING QUOTES FROM PETER LYNCH: $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN , $LAES , $BTC , $BTQ , $JOBY , $OPEN , $META , $NVDA , $GOOG , $TLT, $GME , $PLTR , $SRPT , $PYPL , $PATH , $TSLA What's your top Peter Lynch quote that hits home for you? Drop it in the replies – number 5 is mine! - 1/25 "Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it." - 2/25 "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - 3/25 "In this business, if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." - 4/25 "The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." - 5/25 "Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing." (This one's my absolute favorite – timeless wisdom on KNOWING WHAT YOU OWN!) - 6/25 "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." - 7/25 "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - 8/25 "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - 9/25 "Although it's easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket... it's part ownership of a business." - 10/25 "The best investment you can make is in yourself." - 11/25 "The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game." - 12/25 "The more you learn about the stock market, the better investor you will become." - 13/25 "There's always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling." - 14/25 "In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account." - 15/25 "The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management’s reluctance to reward the shareholders." - 16/25 "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - 17/25 "If you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards." - 18/25 "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies." - 19/25 "Stocks are not lottery tickets. There's a company attached to every share." - 20/25 "The worst thing you can do is invest in companies you know nothing about. Unfortunately, buying stocks on ignorance is still a popular American pastime." - 21/25 "People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game." - 22/25 "The great long-term winners are companies that take the same path as your grandfather: What they make goes up in value over the years." - 23/25 "If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings – assuming the company in question has earnings. Eventually, earnings will set the stock price." - 24/25 "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" - 25/25 "I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes."

为什么黄仁勋那么重视中国市场，因为有一种可能，在未来的几年里，只有中国有足够的能源可以继续支持 $NVDA 业绩的持续增长。 马斯克和纳德拉都认为，以目前的扩张速度，最快到明年，在美国继续配置GPU只能吃灰。 不过我不太相信。当然马斯克和纳德拉是更能看到产业未来的人。

Trust is priceless. Fiat has none. That’s why Gold and Silver are flipping $NVDA. #Gold #Silver

Jensen Huang’s assertion that AI infrastructure is the largest build-out in human history is hyperbole. When measured by actual investment relative to global GDP, historical transitions—such as the expansion of the steam-powered rail network or the global rollout of the electrical grid—represented far more intensive capital commitments. Those previous industrial evolutions did not just add capacity; they fundamentally altered the biological and social trajectory of the human species

还觉得我卖INTC去买大票MSFT、NV太土了吗？ 投资别总想着冲，要胆子小，逃顶了要“后怕”。我现在就有点后怕 晶圆厂提产能、提良率之后才能提margin。不能overnight捧天上，半导体行业十年吃💩才能一朝吃肉 不过泼完冷水再奶下INTC。“长坡厚雪”—5年后你们会看到半导体不同的格局，他将是重要一环

I believe a SpaceX IPO presents a material risk to Tesla’s valuation due to capital cannibalization. The liquidity pool for 'Musk-ecosystem' assets is finite. We already observe this rotational dynamic with $NVDA: when money flows into the 'hot' AI trade, it often drains from $TSLA. A SpaceX IPO provides a direct alternative for this growth capital, potentially stripping Tesla of its 'Musk Premium' and compressing its forward P/E as investors rotate into the newer, faster-growing asset.

Chinese Authorities approved the purchase of H200 $AMD $NVDA

$INTC 下跌的主要原因在于，其Capex投入比较保守，并没有表现出各种宏大叙事中Aggressive的一面。以目前的Capex其扩产目标根本不可能实现。看来相对于各种故事，Intel的高层更能认清事实。 所以我认为 $INTC 仍然只能是交易标的而非长期投资标的. 其与 $AMD $TSM $NVDA 的基本面是不能相提并论的。

半导体的剧本已经浮现。我们需要先call $AMD 来侧击 $INTC 然后call $NVDA 来赌 Jensen可以从中国带回新的好消息。

虽然 $AVGO 最近一直半死不活，但我需要告诉大家一个秘密 2/4号就是 Google的财报。甚至而言，大公司的各种财报又会汇报今年Capex和计划。 $NVDA $AMD 都会上涨。 另一件有趣的事情是，我认为关于能源的描述也会增加 $SMR $BE $OKLO

虽然坐牢，但是$NVDA 还活着