目前日线RSI超卖的大股票有如下几个： $MSFT 26.44 $GOOG 29.25 $META 27.22 https://t.co/QeWnTjxeD1

用过Gemini的就会发现它产品体验其实是有问题的，我经常听不懂他在讲什么，例如： “从资产配置的 Q-learning 逻辑来看，现在的 Meta 更像是一个具有高确定性的“稳态奖励（Steady-state Reward）”，但波动率依然不容小觑。尤其是今天这个 legal verdict 带来的负面情绪，可能会让股价在短期内寻找 550 美元的支撑位。” 然后图中第一点第三点可能是对的，但我觉得其高估了Llama的作用，可能是一些更具体cost更低的多平台联合算法帮助了META实现了爆炸性的盈利，第二点则完全clueless。

$META 大跌超过5%，Forward PE跌至19x 由于Zuck无穷无尽不加节制的AI投入，目前已投入接近Metaverse的总投入的10倍，约7000亿美元。 市场正对其低效的资本开支做出惩罚，这些钱如果用于回购， $META 股价应该超过$1000了。 https://t.co/jcKvFPhokb

$META 下一个5年上涨到9万亿美元总市值也就是翻6倍应该是很困难的。过去5年超级大放水才涨了110%，要再上演一次从80到800的超级大逆袭才可以。 $NVDA 是很可能的， $META 主要是感觉有点逆风。要有很颠覆性的叙事突破。 https://t.co/V6E7gsJpEQ

You can never be 100% certain in any investment. But if you have real conviction, don’t let short-term noise shake you out. The only time to reconsider is when your original thesis fundamentally changes. For example, if $META were to lose Mark Zuckerberg - that would break part of the core story. Conviction is what lets you play the long game. And in markets, the long game is where the rewards are.

$META 目标达到9万亿美元的市值。 如果他们有 $TSLA 的PE的一半，那就已经实现目标了。

Anytime $META drops below $600 I buy. Below is the number 1 reason why.

Trump准备建立一刻包含Zuck, Jensen, Larry的科技委员会，专注于AI政策的制定。 一人10亿美元的会费是跑不了了，Trump终生会长。

Zuck and his AI agent are going to run $META together. Hopefully, his AI agent may suggest him burning less money. https://t.co/E4a8i6Sty6

THE ONE THING NOT TO DO WHEN INVESTING IN STOCKS! $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN As Peter Lynch said: “Stocks are not lottery tickets.” “There is a company behind every stock.” “Trying to predict the market is a waste of time.” That advice is timeless- over the last year, new investors piled into hype themes: - Quantum: $IONQ, $RGTI, $LAES, $BTQ -Nuclear: $OKLO - Flying cars: $JOBY $ARCH - Strong risk‑on tilt: crypto/BTC proxies ( $IREN, $GLXY, $COIN, $MSTR, $IBIT + miners) and AI/infra momentum ( $AVGO, $CRWV, $PLTR). Some of these ran 1,000%–4,000% in a year - despite no profits, and in some cases barely any revenue - yet they’re valued in the billions. That’s not investing this is gambling on momentum, Here’s how the cycle usually works: - Story gets hot - Retail piles in - Funds and algos distribute into strength The fundamentals start to show (or the lack of), reality hits and Retail is left holding the bag! We’ve already seen 60 - 80% drawdowns in the last few months alone - and bubbles rarely stop there! The $SPY is less than 5% away from all time highs - if we get a correction these names will collapse even more! Keep it simple. Buy profitable, growing companies that generate real cash flow. That’s why I like companies like $META - it’s a compounding machine, not a hype stock based on the promise of some future breakthrough. Common Sense: 1. Don’t chase hype. 2. Stocks are not lottery tickets. 3. Own real businesses.

$META 将正式关闭元宇宙，900亿美元的投入化为泡影。 但是 $META 依然强大，因为他破解了绕开操作系统追踪用户其他行为就可以获得用户偏好，并且精准推送广告的技术。这是任何其他社交媒体都没有掌握的技术。 $META 虽然进军AI和元宇宙遇到了挫折，其实就算进军成功，也不会赚多少钱，相较于其目前掌握的广告推荐技术，那才是真金白银的王牌。

$META 特地改名的Metaverse似乎失败了。 现在Quest用户将不再可以登录Horizon Worlds

$META 将投入270亿美元在 $NBIS

$META 似乎要因为裁员20%而大幅上涨。 不过我觉得不会，周五的时候消息就出来了，目前主要司机周五跌太多，回补一下，不一定能坚持到开盘。

AI 大模型现状： 领先Tier: Google, OpenAI, Anthropic 落后Tier: xAI, ByteDance, Deepseek 实际没有伪装有Tier：Palantir, Meta, 放弃治疗Tier: Apple, Amazon,Microsoft https://t.co/riXE1oHmca

$META 推迟了他们的新模型发布，因为没有办法在大多数benchmark击败任何前沿模型。 小扎的千亿投资要泡汤了吗？

$META 收购了Agent社交平台 moltbook，我真的越来越看不懂Zuck的收购品味..

Michael Saylor @Saylor, arguably one of the most exposed to this technology if it ever actually arrives through $MSTR, has a great take on the hypothetical “quantum computer threat” to Bitcoin, that he says is 30–40 years away! $BTC $BTQ $IONQ $LAES $RGTI $QUBT $QBTS “If a quantum computer that Google had actually threatened cryptography today, Google’s own engineers would already be shipping upgrades to their encryption stack, and they would be huddled with Microsoft’s engineers right now, because $GOOG and $MSFT would be the two biggest losers. And if they weren’t doing it, Zuckerberg would be doing it at $META.” They’re not - because the tech is nowhere near ready. No one who actually builds this stuff is panicking today. Quantum is not NOW, despite what these hype-driven CEOs like to imply. Video credit courtesy of Impact Theory.

不会吧，Zuck是冤大头本头吗？meta mate 拼命卷出来的钱就这样打水漂了吗😭

这个偷看别人隐私的岗位要在 Meta哪里申请🤤

Meta据说已要求下个季度员工提高70%“效率” 知道业务没有增加，效率增加70%，意味着什么吗？ 大公司在 1. capex AI；2.员工payroll；3. 回报股东利益中选择最优先的一定是1 当capex做到freecash捉襟见肘了。投资不能停～～但分红回购比可以从43%降到16%，你的工作也可以….

资助 $ORCL $META $CRWV 等数据中心业务的 $OWL Blue Owl有可能会破产（Gemini认为短期内概率不高），这可能会引起连锁反应。

我觉得AI泡沫的第一次破裂，应该发生在2027年的年中左右 届时 $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META 可能会下跌50%左右 在此之前是安全的 时间是按照B300全面量产半年以后，H100-H200系列芯片80%折旧以后，至少有两个季度，云计算厂商会出现折旧亏损推算的 B系列全面量产以后H系列已经没有一秒运行的价值，届时他们将在市场抛售，价值近乎归零。

我发现Ins能发的东西好像变多了？Zuck要和X 和 Pornhub抢生意？？ https://t.co/AuDIIdURlK

根据我们的订单流观察，今天确实出现了大量 $AMZN $META $QQQ 等的Bullish options。这表明大科技股本周有bullish setup 不过今天早盘远超 $UVXY 波动的下杀还是很奇怪。 明早可能类似的事情也会发生，由于VIX二月期货结算，会出现一些扫盘的情况。 下午一点有800亿美元的左右的国债拍卖，可能会减少市场流动性。 $META $AMZN $AAPL 会继续保持回弹。

Ackman 大幅增持 $AMZN $META

$NVDA 和 $META 合作，出现暴涨，看起来像内幕哦😲

Just posted my latest stock review and new position in my sub. $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN It's up over 3% today alone while the rest of the market is down. Subscribe for full portfolio, live trade alerts and DM access. Can you guess which stock?

THIS is how retail investors lose money - chasing hype instead of businesses. $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN As Peter Lynch said: “Stocks are not lottery tickets.” “There is a company behind every stock.” “Trying to predict the market is a waste of time.” That advice is timeless- right now, new investors are piling into hype themes: - Quantum: $IONQ, $RGTI, $LAES, $BTQ -Nuclear: $OKLO - Flying cars: $JOBY - Strong risk‑on tilt: Crypto/BTC proxies ( $IREN, $GLXY, $COIN, $MSTR, $IBIT + miners) and AI/infra momentum ( $AVGO, $CRWV, $PLTR). Some of these ran 1,000%–4,000% in a year - despite no profits, and in some cases barely any revenue - yet they’re valued in the billions. That’s not investing this is gambling on momentum, Here’s how the cycle usually works: - Story gets hot - Retail piles in - Funds and algos distribute into strength The fundamentals start to show (or the lack of), reality hits and Retail is left holding the bag! We’ve already seen 60 - 70% drawdowns in the last few months alone - and bubbles rarely stop there! The $SPY is less than 2% away from all time highs - if we get a correction these names will collapse even more! Keep it simple. Buy profitable, growing companies that generate real cash flow. That’s why I like companies like $META - it’s a compounding machine, not a hype stock based on the promise of some future breakthrough. Common Sense: 1. Don’t chase hype. 2. Stocks are not lottery tickets. 3. Own real businesses.

DON'T DAY-TRADE, HERE IS WHY! $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $TLT $PLTR $PATH $HOOD Robinhood users' trading profits/losses by quarter (in billions) - mostly losses. Biggest wins: +$35B and +$34B in meme stock frenzies (think AI, Quantum, Tech stocks). Biggest losses: -$34B, -$33B, -$25B when things cooled off. Over 6 years, the red bars far outnumber the green ones. Studies show 80-97% of day traders lose money long-term. Robinhood makes money on every trade - win or lose, the don't care if you are profitable Common sense truth: Day trading is gambling. Long-term investing in good companies is how most people build wealth. Don’t trade your future away, instead invest it.

Your favorite stock doesn't know you exist - and it sure as hell won't thank you for defending it on X. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $PLTR $PATH $TSLA I've been there: rooting for a name like it's on my team, tying my identity to it, scrolling on X for confirmation bias every dip. It clouds everything in your mind. Suddenly you're not investing - you're in a relationship. Common sense investing means staying brutally objective. See the company for what it actually is today based on fundamentals, not what you wish it still was. No tribalism, no team loyalty, no ego in the portfolio. The market doesn't care. The moment the risk/reward flips against you or your thesis changes I'm out- no matter how much I've praised it, how long I've held it, or how many times I've called it a high conviction pick. Always be prepared to change course. I've sold forever holdings when my thesis changed. New direction, management, failed tech development, missed earnings etc. That's not disloyalty, that's been disciplined as an investor. Detach your identity from any single ticker. Your job is to make money, not to marry a stock. What's one position you know you should probably cut but haven't yet? Be honest in the replies!

Just spent my Saturday morning watching one of my all-time favorite Warren Buffett talks: His 2003 lecture at the University of Nebraska. $OPEN $OKLO $BTQ $GME $IONQ $RGTI $PLTR $BBAI $QUBT $ACHR $JOBY $IREN $LAES $BTC $BTQ $JOBY $OPEN $META $NVDA $GOOG $PLTR $PATH $TSLA Pure gold more common sense investing & life wisdom than 90% of books out there. Key gems: - Accounting is the language of business, - integrity > intelligence + energy, - the 'Newspaper Test' for decisions, - reputation takes years to build/minutes to lose, and - why character trumps everything when picking partners/leaders. Just over 60 minutes long, but worth every second. It's the perfect weekend for it! Bookmark, Listen and re-listen!

基于目前的最新消息（截至2026年2月），Meta确实正在研发一款代号为**“Avocado”（鳄梨）**的新模型，并且内部对其评价极高。 关于它是否能成为“最强模型”，目前的已知信息如下： 1. 内部评价极高：可能是Meta迄今最强 根据《The Information》等媒体披露的一份Meta内部备忘录（日期为2026年1月20日），Meta Superintelligence Labs的产品经理Megan Fu称，“Avocado”是Meta**“迄今为止能力最强的预训练基础模型”**。 • 测试表现： 备忘录显示，Avocado在预训练阶段结束后，其性能已经超越了目前领先的开源基础模型。 • 竞争力： 即使尚未经过通过后训练（Post-training）的精调，它在知识储备、视觉感知和多语言处理能力上，已经可以与市面上领先的**后训练模型（Post-trained models）**相媲美。这暗示了其底座非常强大。 2. 战略定位的转变：可能不再开源 Avocado之所以备受关注，还有一个重要原因是它可能代表了Meta AI战略的重大转折。 • 闭源可能性： 与闻名业界的Llama系列（主打开源）不同，多方消息指出Avocado可能会作为一个闭源（Proprietary）模型发布。 • 直接竞争： 这意味着Meta可能不再仅仅扮演“开源盟主”的角色，而是准备直接用Avocado在商业闭源模型领域与OpenAI（GPT系列）和Google（Gemini系列）进行正面硬刚。 3. “Avocado”与“Mango”的双核布局 Avocado并不是唯一的秘密武器，它似乎是Meta 2026年AI路线图的一部分： • Avocado： 侧重于文本和推理的下一代大语言模型（LLM）。 • Mango（芒果）： 据传是Meta正在开发的另一款侧重于图像和视频生成的多模态模型。 两者预计都将在2026年上半年（可能是Q1或Q2）正式亮相。 结论 Avocado完全有潜力成为争夺“最强模型”头衔的有力竞争者。 • 优势： Meta拥有巨大的算力储备（据传之前囤积了数十万张H100）和独有的社交数据（Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp），这为Avocado的训练提供了坚实基础。 • 不确定性： 目前关于它的“最强”称号主要来自Meta内部的预训练测试结果。真正的考验在于它发布后，在复杂的实际应用和推理任务中是否能超越届时的GPT-5或Gemini 2等对手。 简单来说，Avocado是Meta在经历Llama系列之后，试图在“闭源顶尖模型”这个赛道上夺取王座的一次全力出击。

US Hyperscaler CAPEX is going parabolic. At this speed, total CAPEX will hit $4 Trillion by 2030. The hyper-bull case for $NVDA: If every $1 of CAPEX translates to $0.75 of Nvidia revenue: • Revenue: Hits $3 Trillion. • Profit: ~$2.25 Trillion (More than $MSFT $GOOG $META $AMZN combined). • Valuation: At 40x P/E, $NVDA becomes a $90 Trillion company. That is 2x the entire estimated US GDP for 2030. 🤯🐂 That is a 20x opportunity in next 5 years.

三大云厂商已经进入养蛊阶段了。全面杀疯， $MSFT 1000亿， $AMZN 2000亿 $GOOG 1800亿， $META 1300亿，总计6000亿美元。 仅仅着四家公司的基础设施投入就将拉高美国2%的GPD。比过去数年的GDP增长还高。 为什么 $NVDA等芯片板块没有拉涨，因为市场害怕这些巨头烧钱抢客户的速度实在太快了。如果最终血本无归，他们将遭受前所未有重创。不再有资本对下一代的机会进行投资，同时将背上巨额债务。 2026年，硅谷可能将面临有史以来最狂暴的裁员潮。这些资金将疯狂涌入 $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $SNDK …

I am confused. Why does $META need so Much Capex? They are not Cloud providers and do not have any LLMs product.

我仔细看了一下 $GOOG 的财报，说实话，远远逊色于 $META 和 $MSFT 。

No wonder there are so many weird ads showing up on FB and IG.

For some reasons, $AVGO just decoupled of $GOOG $META ‘s Capex narrative. Wired!

虽然败笔了一把，现在换回买INTC还是赚的 能不能看看隔壁Meta，我怎么在Mega 5 ex Goog随便“点兵点将”点到了你呢？

Hope you listened $META

人家都“商鞅变法”了，“韩国”不得也蹦哒一下 MSFT META AMZN今年明年都要all in，不然要被秦吞了….

$META 再一次证明了自己是无情的印钞机。

$META 大涨8%，印钞机再次发动。

$MSFT 盘后大跌7%， $Meta Capex超出预期

MY 25 FAVORITE INVESTING QUOTES FROM PETER LYNCH: $IONQ, $RGTI, $OKLO, $JOBY, $IREN , $LAES , $BTC , $BTQ , $JOBY , $OPEN , $META , $NVDA , $GOOG , $TLT, $GME , $PLTR , $SRPT , $PYPL , $PATH , $TSLA What's your top Peter Lynch quote that hits home for you? Drop it in the replies – number 5 is mine! - 1/25 "Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it." - 2/25 "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - 3/25 "In this business, if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten." - 4/25 "The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." - 5/25 "Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing." (This one's my absolute favorite – timeless wisdom on KNOWING WHAT YOU OWN!) - 6/25 "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." - 7/25 "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." - 8/25 "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - 9/25 "Although it's easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket... it's part ownership of a business." - 10/25 "The best investment you can make is in yourself." - 11/25 "The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game." - 12/25 "The more you learn about the stock market, the better investor you will become." - 13/25 "There's always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling." - 14/25 "In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks and/or equity mutual funds will always outperform a portfolio of bonds or a money-market account." - 15/25 "The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management’s reluctance to reward the shareholders." - 16/25 "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - 17/25 "If you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards." - 18/25 "Time is on your side when you own shares of superior companies." - 19/25 "Stocks are not lottery tickets. There's a company attached to every share." - 20/25 "The worst thing you can do is invest in companies you know nothing about. Unfortunately, buying stocks on ignorance is still a popular American pastime." - 21/25 "People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game." - 22/25 "The great long-term winners are companies that take the same path as your grandfather: What they make goes up in value over the years." - 23/25 "If you can follow only one bit of data, follow the earnings – assuming the company in question has earnings. Eventually, earnings will set the stock price." - 24/25 "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'" - 25/25 "I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes."

Expect shorts to cover quickly next week before Big Tech ER($TSLA, $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN, $META). With $TSLA options premiums at multi-period lows, the setup is ripe for a massive surge in leveraged trade volume.

MUST KNOW: The Real Deal on Investing If You're Not an Expert If you're not great at investing - or don't have the time or money to follow markets closely (like paying for a pro advisor) - here's the straight talk for everyday (retail) investors: 1. Prefer low risk? You'll likely get about 8% yearly returns in USD (e.g., safe index funds like those tracking the S&P 500). Just accept it, be patient, and let steady growth (compounding) work its magic - instead of chasing flashy hype. 2. Love high risk? You're an easy target for scams, Ponzi schemes, and fake "breakthroughs" like quantum tech stocks ( $IONQ, $RGTI). Mixing get-rich-quick dreams with no real knowledge? That's a recipe for total loss. Trust me, I've watched it happen over and over. 3. Got big wealth (high net-worth)? None of this applies- you can hire top advisors to open doors to exclusive deals and bigger potential gains (e.g. venture, private equity) But here's the game-changer: 1. Build real financial smarts (common-sense style), and your options explode! See clearly: You'll spot hidden gems (undervalued stocks like $META or $SRPT) in the chaos, match investments to your actual risk level, and dodge overhyped duds. 2. Wealthy folks focus smart: They don't try everything - they get super good at just 1-2 things they love (like bargain-hunting value stocks or smart sector picks, e.g., long-term bonds like $TLT right now). Then, they let pros (funds or managers) handle spreading out the rest. No wasting energy on too many bets - focused wins big, without the ego trips. 3. Smarts open doors: You'll tap into real networks and group deals for more capital - not just random Reddit or X buzz. That's how wealth really builds and lasts. 4. Patience is key: Don't jump around chasing every trend or feel the urge to trade constantly. Stick to your high-conviction ideas and let them play out over time - real winners need room to grow, not constant tinkering. On your path to wealth, make learning your top priority- numbers are simple tools, not scary monsters, and they're your secret weapon. Kick off with my top 5 classic reads (see below).

$META 可能不买TPU了，转而买 $AMD 的GPU

我觉得就连马斯克也需要向Zuck学习广告业务，因为 $META 在每个广告上赚的钱大概是X的5-10倍。所以Threads只需要10%~20%的用户，收入就会完爆X，利润更是甩到没边。 广告商不会无端端都跑到 $Meta 上，是因为人家极度精准的推荐算法。

Wikipedia再怎样他都是非营利的，Grokpedia再怎样都是盈利的。 我是说无论Elon很多事情说得多么冠冕堂皇，多么有益人类这个种群，他表现得都比大多数类似的企业家贪婪。 就像Zuck几十年如一日为Meta免费工作，Elon为自己的公司工作却一定要有一万亿美元的薪酬方案；他指责OpenAI不公开模型，但是xAI却是一家纯粹私立公司。 我是说Elon说的话做的事情，多是为自己的利益服务的。这确实是其商业成功的一部分，我不是说能者多劳是错误的，但是Elon这么说，但又是那么做，显得很虚伪。 个人观点。

天呐，刚才连续划了4下Ins，没有意识到出来的全是广告！ https://t.co/CbsFG5QRZl

Meta meta, be patient, let the falling knife come to you.