伊朗内部在玩“狼人杀” 现在一桌人一起，只有他能跑出阳光下没事，其他人一出去就炸死。你说大家会投谁？

趁美国东亚空虚，中国在台湾附近派出了大量军机。 不过估计只是虚张声势，希望习近平不要像Trump一样把智囊团都给禁了。

亚洲股市全面暴跌，主要是恐慌。消费市场受到抑制。

亚洲金融危机了吗？亚洲经济如此不堪一击吗？

得道多助，失道寡助。天天加关税，人家当然不帮忙了。

No immediate retaliation means they are either all dead or hidden somewhere in a radio-silent state. Anyway, regime change is likely to happen IMO

Breaking: Stanley Druckenmiller says he expects to lose money on his short bonds position $TLT He’s not using it for profit - he’s using it as a hedge against higher-risk bets in: - Korea, Japan & Brazil - Copper - Gold Important context: Druckenmiller knows he has a massive retail following. Timing matters. When a legendary macro investor publicly lays out positioning, you have to consider the possibility that exposure is already being reduced into strength. i.e. you are the exit liquidity!! No one gives away their full portfolio edge for free. I’m positioned the other way - 60% of my portfolio is long bonds $TLT

A place worse than the Space to build data centers, doesn’t he know India power can break down every 3 days? Set more checkpoints for good.

Also sold my EM exposure including China Will revisit the thesis after the weekend.

$MSFT caused a big shock across all markets. Funds were selling gold and silver too, either because they were margin-called or because foreign funds cut their US dollar hedges when selling tech names. I already added $EWG $BABA $EEM $KORU, and added $GC/$RTY futures.

从1H后，宏观上非常不支持EM资产配置。流动性回美国，资产de-couple 我一贯非常不买EM帐：不管是BRICS、N11还是China 只能他们当Meme，击鼓传花叙事比跑得快

中国2025年的通缩较之于2024年进一步加剧，或许中国可以通过每个新生儿每个月发2000的方式挽救一下生育率和通缩问题。

The tension and potential action against Iran might happen in a week or so. This uncertainty is what causes the weakness in the market. The second-order effect is what would happen to China/US relations if Mr. T takes action on Iran with a regime change?