？为何 $AMZN 喊一嗓子有用， $NVDA喊一嗓子没用？ 不都是画大饼

你还别说，很多白人大佬就吃整形脸这一套，看看贝索斯。 https://t.co/k2chkbnfqn

AI 大模型现状： 领先Tier: Google, OpenAI, Anthropic 落后Tier: xAI, ByteDance, Deepseek 实际没有伪装有Tier：Palantir, Meta, 放弃治疗Tier: Apple, Amazon,Microsoft https://t.co/riXE1oHmca

市场流动性抽取，光是 $AMZN 一家发债就抽取了今年以来美联储给市场注入的所有流动性。

伊朗宣布他们可能会攻击美国科技公司在海湾地区的基础设施。攻击包括 $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL 等的数据中心。想来海湾蹭低价能源，看来没那么简单。 这也体现了美国孤悬海外的稳定性，这也是为什么投资美国很昂贵。

$AMZN 宣布，由初级及中级工程师vibe coding出来的代码必须由高级工程师review以后才可以push.

继 $GOOG 之后 $AMZN 也将发债造数据中心。

People Don’t Understand What’s Happening With RETAIL Investors in South Korea South Korean retail is so obsessed with US leveraged ETFs that regulators are now forcing mandatory DMV-style training just to buy them. Starting in Dec 15, anyone in Korea wanting to trade foreign leveraged or inverse ETFs must: • take a 1-hour online course • pass a 3-hour mock-trading program • complete extra steps for derivatives abroad Why? Because Korean retail put $7B into US leveraged ETFs in December 2025 alone and $40B in 2025!!! They are also some of the most aggressive traders of US single-name stocks - to the point where $IONQ now trades more daily volume in Korea than trillion-dollar companies like $AMZN, $MSFT, and $GOOGL. Read that again! This is one of the most misunderstood forces in markets right now. Regulators are scrambling to keep up, this is going to end in tears!

I think this deal will be meaningful only after the massive deployment of Trainium 3. I don't think OAI has any incentive to use T2. As I discussed with many folks before, the consensus is that T3 is the true inflection point for AWS and $AMZN—before that, it's untouchable IMO

social media“两头”都是“人”的暂时还行 一头是“人”的需求，一头是“电子内容”集成的比如Amazon都可能会面临角色重塑： 慢慢从前端toC变成给模型打工的后台服务商 所以他们怎么能坐以待毙、不加入模型大战呢？AI labs经历战国风云。投资要么买“大秦”，要么买军火贩子

$TSM 的市值似乎要超过 $AMZN 了😳

Everyone panicking about the stock market sell-off…Yet SPY is flat YTD (-0.11%) and less than 2% from all-time highs ($682.39). You have no idea what’s coming with a real correction or collapse. You think there are opportunities now $IBM $GOOG $AMZN $NOW $ADBE? Give it time - they’re about to get a whole lot sweeter. Keep cash or bonds on the side - I'm 60% allocated to bonds $TLT in 2026, when this collapse actually plays out I'll take more entries - who says you can't time the market?

我觉得AI泡沫的第一次破裂，应该发生在2027年的年中左右 届时 $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META 可能会下跌50%左右 在此之前是安全的 时间是按照B300全面量产半年以后，H100-H200系列芯片80%折旧以后，至少有两个季度，云计算厂商会出现折旧亏损推算的 B系列全面量产以后H系列已经没有一秒运行的价值，届时他们将在市场抛售，价值近乎归零。

现在的市场 就像在往满水的杯子里放硬币 巨大的不确定性遏制了主力的买盘， 但是在不确定性下不跌恰恰说明潜在的方向是向上的， 所以我们关注一下今天不跌的股票 $GOOG $AMZN $TSLA $UBER 是没毛的。 一旦关键的事情，要么是Trump的信号，要么是什么特别的事情发生了，买盘立马就会涌入。 https://t.co/TmfbhZ5ob0

也不能完全这么说，因为 $AMZN 的P/S 比 $GOOG 低很多哦。所以目前来说， $AMZN 是比 $GOOG 便宜的。而且 $AMZN 炒人和提效的速度比 $GOOG 快很多，所以目前的 CAPEX到明年， $AMZN的自由现金流可能会比 $GOOG 稍微宽一些。

三大云计算 $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT 均出现了反转信号。 https://t.co/au5hCTjLNB

Pelosi Bought $AMZN

根据我们的订单流观察，今天确实出现了大量 $AMZN $META $QQQ 等的Bullish options。这表明大科技股本周有bullish setup 不过今天早盘远超 $UVXY 波动的下杀还是很奇怪。 明早可能类似的事情也会发生，由于VIX二月期货结算，会出现一些扫盘的情况。 下午一点有800亿美元的左右的国债拍卖，可能会减少市场流动性。 $META $AMZN $AAPL 会继续保持回弹。

Ackman 大幅增持 $AMZN $META

$BRK 抛售了 $AMZN 和 $AAPL

Just posted my latest stock review and new position in my sub. $IONQ - $RGTI - $LAES - $BTQ - $OKLO - $JOBY - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY- $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO- $CRWV- $MSTR- $COIN It's up over 3% today alone while the rest of the market is down. Subscribe for full portfolio, live trade alerts and DM access. Can you guess which stock?

Retail Is Concentrated - And It’s Mostly Risk‑On. They are not positioned for what's coming! Some of the top Retail concentrations: - $ASTS - $NVDA - $NBIS - $IREN - $AMZN - $GLXY - $ALT - $TSLA - $SLS - $META - $PLTR - $AVGO - $CRWV - $MSTR - $COIN What stands out Strong risk‑on tilt: - Crypto/BTC proxies (IREN, GLXY, COIN, MSTR, IBIT + miners) and AI/infra momentum (NVDA, AVGO, CRWV, PLTR). Only a small defensive/cash anchor allocation: SGOV/VTI/VOO/VUG are in the list but much further down. Takeaway: Retail looks growth‑heavy, crypto‑tilted, momentum‑driven. They are not prepared for what's coming!

Great read. “Because we know that positioning drives markets, not fundamentals.” It feels nonsense for $WMT’s P/E to be greater than $AMZN’s, but this is how the market rotates positions when sentiment bad. Remember market is like your wife, and she’s always right in short term

这是个自由现金流的问题。 $WMT 虽然贵，但是他的自由现金流越来越多， $AMZN 越来越少。 这就相当于有一个人借一亿，每年赚5000万，另一个人借了1000万，每年赚2000万，谁的危险大？ 所以 $WMT 虽然贵但仍然是防御股

Matt Shumer's essay "Something Big Is Happening" is already playing out in the stock market - AI advancing rapidly and disrupting society like COVID - 95% of companies are potential shorts! $ACN, $DUOL, $CHGG, $COUR, $UPWK, $FVRR, $ORCL, $NOW, $APP, $PLTR, $INTU, $DDOG, $WDAY, $ADBE, $CRM, $MSFT, $AMZN, $ZEN AI is automating cognitive tasks like coding apps, legal briefs, and financial models, per recent models like GPT-5.3 and Claude Opus 4.6. Look how recent model advances are wiping out entire sectors and we are just getting started. Wall Street sees the writing on the wall: 1. Consulting giants like Accenture ( $ACN) down over 40%, Deloitte, and Bain face erosion as AI replaces human analysis. 2. Edtech: Duolingo ( $DUOL) down 90%, Chegg ( $CHGG) over 80%, Coursera ($COUR) 70%, with AI tutors obsoleting apps. 3. Freelance: Upwork ( $UPWK) and Fiverr ( $FVRR) tanked 60-75%, AI outpacing human bids. 4. Enterprise software: Oracle ( $ORCL) down 50%, ServiceNow ( $NOW) and AppLovin ( $APP) 40%, Palantir ( $PLTR) 27%, Intuit ( $INTU), Datadog ( $DDOG), Workday ( $WDAY) 20-40%. 5. Creative/marketing: Adobe ( $ADBE) and Salesforce ( $CRM) down 20%. 6. Big tech: Even Microsoft ( $MSFT) off 18%, expect more in legal, finance (e.g., JPMorgan analysts), customer service (Zendesk $ZEN down 30%), healthcare, and media. Per Anthropic's Dario Amodei, 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs gone in 1-5 years. The message is clear adapt (if you can) or perish! You need to reassess your portfolio is this light now!

$AMZN 目前主要是他的momentum指标和一些期权信号并不明显，倒是相对强弱指标在早上稍好了一些。 我觉得处于可能反弹，但还可以继续观察的评级。 https://t.co/VIi2H1mO39

$AMZN 极有可能是 $MSFT 之后下一个美妙的交易机会，我正在密切观察。

嘿嘿，告诉大家一个秘密， $AMZN 给员工发工资的时候是默认按照每年涨15%计算的。 也就是比如他4年要给你40万美元股票，当年股价是100块，按照10%，10%，40%，40%的backload，他会给你第一年400股，第二年347，第三年1209，第四年1052 所以总共3008股，算40万总包，由于这5年 $AMZN 只涨了20%，所以只发了36万美元股票 这就是亚麻的伤痕文学

By 2030，Azure>AWS+GCP

US Hyperscaler CAPEX is going parabolic. At this speed, total CAPEX will hit $4 Trillion by 2030. The hyper-bull case for $NVDA: If every $1 of CAPEX translates to $0.75 of Nvidia revenue: • Revenue: Hits $3 Trillion. • Profit: ~$2.25 Trillion (More than $MSFT $GOOG $META $AMZN combined). • Valuation: At 40x P/E, $NVDA becomes a $90 Trillion company. That is 2x the entire estimated US GDP for 2030. 🤯🐂 That is a 20x opportunity in next 5 years.

$MSFT 已经是花钱最少的云厂商了，花钱少跌， $AMZN $GOOG 花钱多也跌，难道花钱就要跌？ 100%跌？

X supposed "technical analysis" guru JROULDZ posted his portfolio on Jan 18 (below). Since then? His entire portfolio has had brutal drawdowns across the board: $RGTI: -40% $IONQ: -40% $QBTS: -40% $RKLB: -33% $PLTR: -25% $AMZN: -15% $GOOG: -15% $LMND: -30% $ARKG: -15% Even his "other bucket" which includes $RR (Richtech Robotics) has collapsed recently too down -50%+ over the last couple of weeks! Don't blindly follow X gurus chasing TA setups. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOESN'T WORK. Fundamentals, news, dilution, and macro rotations crush hype fast. DYOR!

三大云厂商已经进入养蛊阶段了。全面杀疯， $MSFT 1000亿， $AMZN 2000亿 $GOOG 1800亿， $META 1300亿，总计6000亿美元。 仅仅着四家公司的基础设施投入就将拉高美国2%的GPD。比过去数年的GDP增长还高。 为什么 $NVDA等芯片板块没有拉涨，因为市场害怕这些巨头烧钱抢客户的速度实在太快了。如果最终血本无归，他们将遭受前所未有重创。不再有资本对下一代的机会进行投资，同时将背上巨额债务。 2026年，硅谷可能将面临有史以来最狂暴的裁员潮。这些资金将疯狂涌入 $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $TSM $MU $SNDK …

$AMZN CAPEX is 200B..

$AMZN 预计将拿出比 $GOOG 还大的 CAPEX $NVDA $MRVL

My US stock holdings are mostly in these categories now with small exposures in the tech sectors. I'll take profits on GOOG/AMZN before the ERs. And XLF/XLI will be cut if I see any major SPX selloff coming. In summary I'll be cautious and stay in a risk off mode for Feb. NFA. https://t.co/HMCuqgkh89

周一 $PLTR 周二 $AMD $SMCI 周三 $LLY $NVO $UNeR $GOOG $ARM $QCOM 周四 $AMZN $IREN $MSTR

虽然不知道目前市场氛围是如何考虑，但是游戏制作是关于娱乐的设计。 其实他非常高级，甚至来说非常玄学。 $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN 这些长期做工具和过程的公司从来没有自己做出哪怕一款成功的游戏。 所以 $RBLX $APP $TTWO 这些可能是错杀。这就像在说让机器人学会了踢球，以后世界杯是不是要办不下去了。

$AMZN has to pay this with debt.

I think this MSFT ER is actually positive for AWS/GCP. A had great DC expansion confirmed in the last ER. So less supply contraint. G have pretty powerful TPUs, so less reliance on NVDA Blackwell. I'm holding AMZN/GOOG (G's TP $330/$360), but I'd not bet on any ER.

初步诊断是Bibi似乎给Trump下了进攻Iran的命令，但是沙特在斡旋。 还有就是 $MSFT 云的backlog里面过半来自OpenAI，拖垮了云计算板块。 其实除非云厂商自己做AI，做AI云基本没有门槛，$MSFT $AMZN $GOOG 的云业务，本质和 $ORCL $CRWV 没有分别。

人家都“商鞅变法”了，“韩国”不得也蹦哒一下 MSFT META AMZN今年明年都要all in，不然要被秦吞了….

$AAOI has a weekly cup and handle. If their management could deliver what they committed, this would be the cheapest optical play. @insane_analyst had a great coverage about it https://t.co/EEriCAN9c4 Will keep watching the price action and the progress towards 1.6T and the deployment in AMZN/ORCL before jumping in.

Expect shorts to cover quickly next week before Big Tech ER($TSLA, $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN, $META). With $TSLA options premiums at multi-period lows, the setup is ripe for a massive surge in leveraged trade volume.

内存价格的持续上涨，会严重打击 手机厂商 $AAPL ,各种云厂商 $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT 保价协议过期以后, $AAPL 每一台iPhone将额外增加30美元内存成本，也就是会损失大约60亿美元的利润。

你可以买任何一支大票：MSFT/AMZN/NV/AAPL，但就现在不能买goog

WHO ARE YOU? In 1994, a financial analyst made a calculation. It was not about stock prices. It was about regret. Jeff Bezos saw the web growing at 2,300% annually. He knew this was a rare moment in history. The decision framework he used is powerful `↓` Project yourself to age 80. Look back at your life. Try to minimize the number of regrets you have! Most people fear the wrong things `⇒` - We fear losing a salary. - We fear looking foolish. - We fear the unknown. Bezos feared something else entirely. He feared missed opportunity. That fear drove him to Seattle. It built a trillion-dollar empire that is $AMZN today. The lesson is simple. Calculated risks look crazy in the moment. They look obvious in hindsight. Who are you? You are the risk taker! TAKE THE RISK.

It’ll be a tough year to trade tech stocks as you will see narratives like : AI agent kills SAAS(including MSFT) OAI takes Ads market share; AI e-commerce takes AMZN’s market share ….. It’s like civil war within QQQ and the big players like OAI/Anthropic are still not public yet